Every V-shaped bottom is a dead cat bounce that hasn't been checked yet, and every dead cat bounce is a V-shaped bottom that got bad PR. 👇via @CVecchioFX
Is this a dead cat bounce or a V-shaped bottom? A bounce after a big decline isn't unusual. But this kind of price action doesn't happen that often - greater than a 5% gain from the low over 3 sessions following an enormous decline. (1/2) @tastyliveshow
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Market bounced, but @jam_croissant isn't buying the story.
A bounce built on positioning is basically a 🥐: looks full, mostly air. 👇
$NQ $ES
Markets bounced today. @jam_croissant isn’t buying the story behind it.
His warning: liquidity is drying up in the one part of the market that’s been driving all the profits.
Flows are positive, books are well hedged, so the vol compression makes sense. But a bounce built on positioning isn’t the same as a healthy macro story.
Especially if the administration stops going out of its way to support this market.
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Relief rally? Not for the 🐈 cat.
@jam_croissant has the name for it.
Schrödinger's rally: alive until you check the macro.
$NQ $QQQ 👇 via @tastyliveshow
Everyone’s calling today’s bounce a relief rally. @jam_croissant has another name for it.
“This is literally what a dead cat bounce is.”
His point: the adage isn’t just folklore. Weak macro plus a move higher driven purely by flows, not fundamentals. That’s the whole setup.
And if it’s weak into bad macro? You sell into it.
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Many analysts say the scale of the declines suggests more selling is ahead.
Like a kidney stone. It will pass. It's natural. It just hurts the whole way out.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPY 👇@fundstrat
On today's carnage
To me, this really "smells" of forced liquidation as an aftershock from 'blue tsunam' 🧢🌊
think of size of shock = combo of:
➡️tariff shock of 2025 --> blue tsunami "shock" 🧢🌊
➡️deepseek moment 2025 --> AI "super intelligence" bad
➡️situtational awareness of June 2026 --> ➡️several large hedge funds liquidating
Each of these prior shocks took time (only days) to "bottom"
- each of these prior shocks was a major buying opportunity
These shocks do not change the AI story:
➡️demand = strong due to major AI discoveries
➡️supply = there is no new "competitor" to AI or the bottleneck
➡️speed = there might be a 'speed bump' but a speed bump = oppty
This shock will soon pass
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The Analyst Calendar:
Market analysts on a red day: "Monday is key."
Market analysts on Monday: "Wednesday is key."
Good advice from @AnthonyCrudele! 👇
$ES $SPY $NQ $QQQ
Big down days like this, especially late in the session, often close on the lows, with the following day taking out those lows.
For me, Monday is key. Can the market regain today’s low, line up with the technicals on my charts, and begin forming a V-bottom like we’ve seen so many times in the past. We’ll see if this time it’s a change in character.
Trying to pick bottoms here is a fool’s game.
I’m speaking from a bigger-picture portfolio perspective. Futures traders can scalp this market level to level.
Come Monday, I’ll be looking to see if the washout is complete and the market can find its footing.
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Everyone's buying crash insurance on AI data centers, and the only stock nobody's hedging is GameStop (GME). We've come full circle. 👇 via @spotgamma
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Traders bought protection into the uncertainty, sold it once results landed, and implied vol fell mechanically. Then the real-world risks were still there, so vol came back.
$NQ $ES
Good breakdown from @jschultzf3 👇
Why did the VIX drop after the election, only to spike again?
Traders piled into options ahead of an uncertain outcome, then unwound those positions once the results were known.
But volatility didn't stay down.
Dr. Jim Schultz @jschultzf3 stopped by the show to explain how options activity drives swings in the VIX 👇
The S&P 500 celebrated the election for exactly one day, then remembered it still has to pay for all those AI data centers.
🔹 Global AI investment is projected at $2.7T in 2026 and $3.6T in 2027
🔹 Oracle is raising $20B in stock and bonds just to fund its AI buildout
🔹 Chip and data-center stocks are getting hit hardest.
The sooner the AI Bubble 🎈bursts the better!
$NQ $ES
Today's chart is for the history books.
Yesterday's post-election rally now looks like a rounding error in the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 has now erased -$3 trillion today.
That's -$750 billion per hour since the market opened.
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Somewhere a guy who sold VIX calls yesterday is quietly updating his LinkedIn to ‘open to work’. $VIX via @KobeissiLetter 👇
BREAKING: The Volatility Index, $VIX, surges over +70% on the day, on track for its biggest daily gain since February 2018.
Not even March 2020 saw a daily jump in volatility like we are seeing now.
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The Three Poisons shifting the Karmic Winds
1. Higher real rates stay higher for longer
2. Massive issuance to fund deficits and AI (still going to be massive even if Date Centers slow a touch) - Hamburgers
3. Equity market Growth expectations are impossible to achieve without massive issuance and spending AND more importantly GDP growth of close to double digits while profits share of GDP practically doubles - not enough pie
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AMD's stock went up. Bad news for $AMD.😲
AMD's record quarter came with a strange cost: a $1.1B charge for penny warrants it gave OpenAI and Meta.
The higher AMD stock goes, the bigger the charge. 👇
finance.yahoo.com/markets/st…
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Hyperscalers are now competing with Uncle Sam for capital!
AI borrowing ≈ 29% of new Treasury coupon supply.
Same buyers. Same pool of money. Something gives: spreads, yields, or capex. 👇 via @tastyliveshow
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Incentives drive outcomes.
Forget AGI timelines, @jam_croissant just posted the only one that matters:
🖨️ → 💵 → 📈 → your 🥐 costs €8 so Meta can train Llama 9. 👇 $NQ $QQQ
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Happy Halloween @tastyliveshow. My costume this year is "guy who checked his portfolio after the Nasdaq dumped." 🎃📉 $NQ
Trying to recover after today's stock market selloff? Taking bigger risks could make things worse.
With the Nasdaq under pressure, @Bubba_Trading joins tastylive's to explain why protecting capital, managing position sizes and knowing when to exit are critical during volatile trading sessions.
#Nasdaq #StockMarket #MarketSelloff #Trading
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Yes, AI can now write code, poems, and legal briefs. What it still can't generate: cheap financing. $ES $NQ 👇 via @elerianm
From the WSJ, and further to earlier posts:
"For years, the companies behind America’s artificial-intelligence boom have raised hundreds of billions of dollars with ease. Wall Street eagerly ponied up capital and asked few questions.
Now, the balance of power is shifting.
Lenders and investors are getting choosier about where to place their bets and are demanding tougher terms, signaling a new phase in the AI build-out."
#economy #tech #ai @WSJ #ArtificialIntelligence #markets
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$GOOGL down 12% and $SPX vol just shrugged.
Money didn't leave the building. It just changed floors, from the rooftop bar to the boring lobby café. $NQ $QQQ 👇 via @spotgamma
$GOOGL is off 11% with $QQQ -1.3%
SPX does not care -30bps
and maybe more interesting: SPX fixed strike vol is sinking, an indication that "no one cares" as its about rotation out of tech, not rotation out of stocks.
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Weak breadth + a real fundamental catalyst (AI capex/monetization concerns) argues for Gap-and-Go / continuation bias unless price reclaims and holds above the pre-Alphabet-reaction levels. $NQ
Breadth charts (improvement in breadth more pronounced for S&P 500 relative to NASDAQ or Russell 2000; although only 2% of S&P 500’s stocks are at 52w highs)
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Anthropic files for the historical IPO as CEO warns of Al's existential risk to humanity!
Investor: So what's the biggest risk factor?
#Anthropic: The end of humanity.
Investor: And the upside?
Anthropic: Strong Q3 margins.
Investor: I'm in.
$NQ
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