Denise Andrades

It is a full 9°C colder across the world today than the 24°C global average over the past 485 million years (Judd et al., Science 2024). So how could we have been facing an existential global warming threat? Earth is not even remotely facing runaway warming now or in the near future, and reaching the dramatic prediction of a 5.5°C rise by 2100 is virtually impossible. The climate crisis narrative was built upon this predicted warming scenario, which is now widely acknowledged by scientists as implausible. First introduced in 2011 to guide policy, this extreme scenario - known as RCP8.5 (and later SSP5-8.5) - served as the primary engine for terrifying 'business-as-usual' headlines for over a decade. Those apocalyptic projections simply did not occur. Traditional hydrocarbon fuels supply roughly 81% of primary global energy, yet global carbon emissions have structurally flattened. Meanwhile, wind and solar account for only around 6.5% of total primary energy. With the retirement of the extreme 5°C baseline ahead of the 7th Assessment Report (AR7), the ceiling for high-emissions projections has dropped significantly, with proposed high-end baselines downgraded toward a maximum around 3.3°C. One lesson is that modestly rising CO₂ concentrations do not automatically trigger runaway temperatures. We have seen this in worldwide greening identified by NASA satellites. Carbon dioxide remains a trace atmospheric gas - around 420 parts per million - making it among the lowest concentrations in geological history, while the atmosphere is over 99% nitrogen, oxygen, and argon, with water vapor exceeding CO₂ many times over. This deceptive original scenario - promoted heavily through the United Nations - became the primary justification for Net Zero. It forced the premature decline of reliable energy systems across Western nations, leading to widespread economic strain and a massive transfer of industrial capacity to Beijing. China now manufactures the vast majority of the world's wind turbines, solar panels, and critical battery components, powered largely by the world's largest fleet of coal-fired power stations. China produces over half the world's steel and accounts for nearly a third of all human-caused CO₂ emissions. The old fear narrative - 'We are on track for a 5°C apocalypse if we don't immediately upend the global economy' - is finally dead.

The Illusion of a Climate Crisis: Part 1 of a 2-part series. To understand the true nature of Earth’s climate, don't look through the narrow window of recent decades, but at the vast expanse of geological history. When viewed through the lens of deep-time, the current narrative of a impending 'climate crisis' doom is fundamentally disconnected from planetary reality. The evidence of history suggests the modern climate agenda is a highly orchestrated political and financial mechanism, designed to reshape human society, weaken sovereignty and consolidate global control. The foundational flaw of the climate narrative is the omission of context. We were told current temperatures and carbon dioxide levels were unprecedented, yet geological history tells the exact opposite story. For the past 34 million years—since the glaciation of Antarctica driven by tectonic shifts and changing ocean currents—Earth has been locked in the Late Cenozoic Ice Age. These conditions intensified 2.58 million years ago into the Quaternary glaciation, characterised by long, brutal glacial periods interrupted only briefly by temporary, warmer interglacials, like the one we live in today. During the Phanerozoic Eon—the last 541 million years of exploding biological diversity—global temperatures averaged between 18°C and 26°C, several degrees warmer than today’s average of roughly 15°C. Furthermore, rather than suffering from an excess of carbon, Earth has been experiencing a long-term carbon decline. Prior to the industrial era, low CO2 levels contributed to global aridity, the retreat of biomass and the loss of ancient rainforests. An increase in atmospheric CO2 represents an opportunity for life, acting as a fertiliser that stimulates biological growth and expands the planet's carrying capacity. The natural world has endured genuine, cataclysmic upheavals. The great extinction events of the past—such as the Carnian Pluvial Episode or the End-Permian extinction—played out over tens of thousands to millions of years. Yet the biological world survived and adapted. When the planet did experience sustained, greenhouse conditions, life didn't collapse—it flourished. During the Eocene Epoch around 56 million years ago, a genuine planetary hothouse emerged. Palm trees grew in the Arctic, ice disappeared from the poles, and lush rainforests blanketed 85% of the Earth's landmass. Far from a wasteland, the Eocene was a time of astonishing biological abundance of food and driving a massive radiation of mammalian life. History proves that warmer conditions are not to be feared; they are catalysts for biological resilience and growth. A central argument used to manufacture an emergency today is the pace of recent changes. Between 1900 and 2000, global atmospheric CO2 rose from approximately 300 ppm to 370 ppm, accompanied by a modest temperature rise of 1.1°C to 1.4°C. However, there is absolutely no precedent in Earth’s geological record for a permanent, fundamental climate shift occurring on a timescale of mere decades. The cyclical shifts of the ice ages are driven by the Milankovitch Cycles—long-term variations in Earth’s orbit—not by minor decadal fluctuations in trace gases. The brief fluctuations of past decades do not constitute evidence of a climate crisis; they are evidence of a temporary, microscopic blip in geological time. The oceans and the natural world face no structural threat of collapse. If the data does not support a climate emergency, what is driving the relentless push for global decarbonisation? The answer isn't environmental, it's institutional. The coordinated destabilisation of global energy production is a remarkably recent phenomenon, beginning in earnest after 1988. It follows a bureaucratic blueprint designed to foster public fear and justify a massive restructuring of the human world. IMAGE: we have to look past recent decades and view the vast expanse of geological history.

Any sudden return to the Earth's long-term ice age conditions could trigger a crisis unmatched in human experience. A global warming agenda has been running for 40 years. But here is the real irony: 10% of the world's land area is still hidden under glacial ice. An ice world covers 15 million square kilometers (5.8 million square miles)—roughly a third of its peak extent during the Last Glacial Maximum (26,000 to 19,000 years ago). It's been conveniently overlooked that the Earth is 'still in an ice age' and average global temperatures of around 15°C are much lower than the long-term geological average of 18°C to 26°C. The evidence is sitting there like a sudden winter snowdrift. The Antarctic ice sheet is vast. It's the largest and thickest ice formation on Earth, reaching up to 4.8 kilometers (about 3 miles) deep. It holds 90% of the world's ice by volume and accounts for around 85% of total global glacial ice cover, spanning roughly 14 million square kilometers (5.4 million square miles)—8.3% of the world's land surface. We live in an oceanic world. Oceans are the greatest physical feature of the earth seen from space. They cover three quarters (72%) of the globe to an average depth of 2.3 miles, while forests cover 31% and deserts 33%. Most of the world is still wilderness. Furthermore, they contain 86% of the surface carbon reservoir and 91% of all retained heat energy; by contrast, the atmosphere holds a mere 1 to 2% of each. For four decades, public debate has been dominated by fear and guilt, centered on a looming climate crisis caused by us—a PR campaign driven by the United Nations and reliant on computer modeling and forecasts of unholy soaring temperatures. However, the fact remains that Earth is in an ice age, with year-round ice cover at both poles. We evolved in the Late Cenozoic Ice Age, one of five great ice ages in Earth's history. Our very recent civilisation arose during a benevolently warm interglacial period within the Quaternary Glaciation, which has lasted 2.58 million years. The Late Cenozoic Ice Age itself has lasted 34 million years, triggered by the glaciation of Antarctica, orbital anomalies (Milankovitch cycles), and tectonic shifts that isolated the Antarctic continent as Australia and South America drifted northward. The last major ice age comparable to today's conditions was the Karoo (Late Paleozoic Icehouse) 360 to 260 million years ago.