Contrarian 🅰Edge

RON BARON: “Aside from inflation, I don’t pay attention to macro-level issues; my focus is on companies capable of achieving growth.” So, which "growth"-oriented companies could fit Ron Baron's investment philosophy? $ASTS — AST SpaceMobile A potential game-changer in the global telecommunications industry, building a space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to everyday smartphones. Could $ASTS be one of the biggest growth stories of the next decade?

🧵 $ASTS × $FLY: WHAT DID AST SPACEMOBILE REALLY BUY? I've taken a deep dive into the Firefly agreement. There's been plenty of criticism, and some of it is justified. But to understand this deal, we need to look beyond the $1.3B headline number. 1/ The deal breakdown The agreement is valued at more than $1.3 billion: • $800M for a perpetual license to manufacture Miranda and Vira engines — $400M in cash plus 10–14 million ASTS shares. • $250M for 36 engines: 27 Miranda and 9 Vira, intended for the first three Blacklift rockets. • $250M for three years of engineering support. The license is the biggest piece of this deal. 2/ What does ASTS actually get? This isn't simply an engine purchase. ASTS gets the right to manufacture these engines itself, along with access to the designs, manufacturing processes, and extensive testing data. That could save significant time and R&D costs compared with developing an entirely new engine family from scratch. 3/ The value of time Building a comparable engine family from zero could potentially cost hundreds of millions of dollars and take years of development, with no guarantee of success. Firefly's Miranda engine has already completed more than 175 hot-fire tests, totaling over 4,200 seconds. That's meaningful progress. However, neither Miranda nor Vira has flown to orbit yet. Their development still carries real technical risk. Their designs also draw on Firefly's previous propulsion experience, including technologies used in its existing launch vehicles. 4/ The engine is only one piece of the puzzle Let's be clear: ASTS still has a massive amount of work ahead. It must develop and validate: • Fuel tanks and vehicle structures • Propellant systems and avionics • Flight software and guidance • Stage separation and fairings • BlueBird payload integration • Thermal protection and recovery systems • Launch facilities, testing infrastructure, and production lines And the entire vehicle must pass the required regulatory and flight-safety approvals. Buying engine technology does not mean buying a finished rocket. 5/ What about the 2028 timeline? ASTS is targeting a first Blacklift launch in late 2028. That's ambitious. Personally, I would leave room for delays. A 2029 maiden flight may be a more conservative expectation, although a 2028 attempt shouldn't be ruled out. Firefly's engineering support and existing engine development could help accelerate the process, but execution will determine the actual timeline. 6/ Why take this risk? In my view, Blacklift addresses one of ASTS's biggest long-term structural risks: dependence on third-party launch providers. Owning its launch capability could eventually give ASTS: • Greater control over deployment schedules • More predictable launch capacity • Potentially lower long-term launch costs • More flexibility to expand and replenish its constellation Blacklift is designed to carry up to five BlueBird satellites per launch. For a company that may eventually need to deploy and replace hundreds of satellites, vertical integration could be strategically valuable. 7/ The part I'm still cautious about I have reservations about paying for a perpetual engine license so early. An engine-supply agreement alone might have reduced ASTS's immediate financial commitment and execution risk. But choosing to acquire the manufacturing rights suggests the company's ambitions go far beyond the first three Blacklift rockets. ASTS appears to be positioning itself to build a long-term launch business, manufacture its own engines, and potentially serve demand beyond its own constellation. That's a much bigger ambition — and a much bigger financial commitment. 8/ The long-term bet This investment won't be justified by just a handful of launches. For the economics to make sense, ASTS may need to operate Blacklift at a high launch cadence over the next 10–15 years, while successfully achieving reusability and lowering costs. In the meantime, external launch providers remain essential. ASTS has agreements covering more than 100 BlueBird satellites for deployment during 2027 and 2028. That means Blacklift isn't the solution for the first phase of deployment. It's a bet on the next phase: long-term growth, constellation replenishment, and control over access to orbit. My conclusion: The $1.3B agreement is expensive, ambitious, and carries substantial execution risk. But it may also be one of the most consequential strategic decisions ASTS makes. The real question isn't simply whether Blacklift can fly. It's whether ASTS can turn launch independence into a lasting competitive advantage. What's your take? Is Blacklift a visionary long-term investment or an unnecessary financial risk? Follow me for more independent analysis of $ASTS, $FLY, and the space industry. 🚀

$ASTS — WHO REALLY WINS FROM THE BLACKLIFT DEAL? Everyone is talking about AST SpaceMobile building its own rocket. But there's another side to this deal that deserves attention. Firefly Aerospace gets: • A deal worth more than $1.3 BILLION. • Engine supply commitments. • Three years of engineering services. • A major opportunity to expand its engine manufacturing business. ASTS gets the potential for long-term launch independence. But there's a catch: ASTS must still execute the rocket development, fund the infrastructure, and prove that Blacklift can deliver on its promises. Is this a brilliant long-term strategic investment, or is ASTS taking on too much risk too early? Who benefits more from this deal: $ASTS or $FLY? Follow me for more independent space industry analysis.

$ASTS — Building rockets is one thing. Building a global satellite network is another. AST SpaceMobile says BlueBird production is now underway through satellite 51. It also has external launch agreements covering 100+ satellites for 2027–2028. That's where the real execution challenge begins: • Can manufacturing keep pace with deployment? • Can launches happen consistently? • How quickly can new satellites translate into actual coverage and revenue? Blacklift may improve long-term launch independence, but the immediate priority is getting BlueBirds into orbit. Investors need to see execution, not just expansion plans. Follow me for more $ASTS analysis.

$ASTS — The biggest question about Blacklift isn't whether AST can build a rocket. It's whether building one will actually create more value for shareholders. Let's be realistic: • $800M upfront for the engine license, including 10–14M shares. • Another $500M in engine supply and engineering agreements. • First Blacklift launch targeted for late 2028. • More than 100 BlueBird satellites still scheduled for external launches in 2027–2028. Vertical integration could eventually give ASTS greater control over launch costs and capacity. But execution, capital allocation, and shareholder dilution matter just as much as the technology. The real question: Will Blacklift become a competitive advantage or a massive capital burden? I'm bullish on the long-term vision, but the numbers need to prove it. Follow me for more $ASTS updates, insights, and investor analysis.

$ASTS — BIG NEWS! AST SpaceMobile is making a MASSIVE move toward FULL VERTICAL INTEGRATION! The company is taking a bold step toward controlling more of its own launch infrastructure with BLACKLIFT, backed by a $1.3 BILLION+ agreement with $FLY (Firefly Aerospace). Here's what investors need to know: 36 rocket engines for the first three rockets. Licensing rights to manufacture Miranda and Vira engines. Capacity to carry up to 5 BlueBird satellites per launch. First launch targeted for late 2028. WHY DOES THIS MATTER? Greater control over launch capacity. More flexibility over deployment schedules. Potential long-term cost advantages. But let's not ignore the risks: Massive capital requirements. Engineering and execution challenges. Potential shareholder dilution. The vision is getting BIGGER. Now ASTS needs to prove it can deliver. IS BLACKLIFT THE MOVE THAT TAKES $ASTS TO THE NEXT LEVEL? Drop your thoughts below! LIKE ❤️ FOLLOW 🔔 SHARE 🚀