Kinda wild @Kalshi made a market to bet on Senators dying. Why does this resolve February 1st?
kalshi.com/markets/kxdsenate…
🤡🤡🤡
Exclusive: Prediction market Kalshi has launched an investigation into a series of suspicious trades on their platform about the selection of President Trump’s new White House press secretary. on.wsj.com/4zpIFEO
This week @Sports__Proj and I had on @SusqBestR, head of Susquehanna predictions. Ric shared his journey from trading -> advantage play -> prediction markets. If you want a peek behind the curtain check out the episode below. Also a link to Predictions Cup!
Its sad we live in a world where these cockroaches walk amongst us, unscared of the light, proclaiming without fear they are mentions traders, thinking their endeavors are more than bottom feeding, their life has any meaning, and anyone gives a shit how you gerund scammed a noob.
July ended with a cool milestone: $100k in profit on Kalshi. Pretty wild!
If you're wondering: Less than 5 months ago, I started trading (mostly) Mentions markets. I'd say the key components to succeeding with this are: software, time, understanding the nuances of the rules, good judgment, and community for bouncing ideas around.
Come chill with us on discord if you want to get into it.
Onwards we go careening from everything ruled Yes against 96c for 2 weeks; this week it is everything ruled no against 97c. Quite literally, the answer my friend is blowing in the wind.
Real crisis of confidence @Polymarket . Firing head of markets and flipping a .96c market on the same day is something only they could pull off.
I would not recommend anyone bet on any contestable markets for several months.
1 million hours of engineering work at Kalshi and they still haven't figured out it is price x quantity, not quantity x price.
Today, we're batch shipping 80% of the mobile code we’ve written this past quarter.
First, a breakdown of the other 20%: across 42 releases, our 5-person squad launched the first perpetual futures in the US and trading experiences (explore overhaul, 15-minute charts, live chat, World-Cup hub, inner-circle, etc.) that have led Kalshi to top the App Store rankings for most of the past month.
But all of this was just a fraction of the team’s firepower. At night, we were quietly working on a big project: “V2”, a complete rewrite of our app and the biggest technical leap I’ve seen since I joined the company 6 years ago.
4000 commits and 1 million lines later, the numbers are in and they justify the crazy sprint we just went through:
- CPU usage: 369% peak -> 15% peak
- Memory use: 350M -> 70MB
- Install size: 315MB -> 95MB (for reference: RH @ 934MB, Coinbase @ 310MB)
- External dependencies: 94 -> 11
- Test coverage: 17% -> 100%
When you get the update, Kalshi should immediately feel significantly faster, smoother, sleeker, and more responsive.
For our product velocity, V2 represents a massive shift as well: we now have a single codebase from which the team can push changes to our backend, iOS, and Android builds. The only code that runs on the client is the code that the team wants to run on the client. We have end-to-end type safety, CI with version-tagged deploys, and client<->server integration tests. We’d already gotten in the habit of daily releases, but with our latest tooling, it’s now a breeze.
We’re keeping the team lean, but if you are incredibly talented, work hard, and want to build the next generation financial market,. DM me or apply on our careers website.
Real crisis of confidence @Polymarket . Firing head of markets and flipping a .96c market on the same day is something only they could pull off.
I would not recommend anyone bet on any contestable markets for several months.
I was cool with @Deebs_DeFi insinuating I was a traitor, treasonoor, criminal, insider trader, etc., but wtf is this trader label icon? 🛰️🛰️🛰️
Satellite? As in my trades revolve around the insiders?
Are you calling me a CopyTrader? Now that is false and defamatory.
I demand a retraction and that @CBS rename the show to "50 Minutes" in my honor and as an admission of their decades of lies, cause everybody know w/ commercials the show sure as shit ain't 60minutes long.
The sharpest traders only talk sh*t after a market closes.
This is what a pure liquidity donor looks like on Polymarket
A brand new account with zero trading history
His very first move? Dropping $5,000 on a 4¢ "Yes" for a US-Iran ceasefire that expires today
Look at the second slide
Two minutes after clicking buy he is already down 38% (-$1,929)
This isn't just a terrible geopolitical bet
This is a masterclass in horrible execution
He market-bought an illiquid 4% outcome and completely ate the spread
Look at the order book on the third slide
He wiped out the thin liquidity so hard that his position instantly lost a third of its value
Yesterday I showed you a trader who built a $30k bankroll by scraping pennies with strict risk management
Today you are looking at the guy paying for it
Stop market-buying low probability hopium
You are just paying salaries to the market makers
Some day in the future, @luanalopeslara will regret this.
Looks sick - check out the all new Predictfolio. Lots fo new features.
Congrats to @CarOnPolymarket and Meep.
We just launched the biggest update ever!
Our new website predictfolio.com is now a must for EVERY prediction market user:
- PnL & Performance PER market
- Near real time trade activity
- See your counter parties in EVERY trade
- Combined PnL for events with multiple markets
- View your 24H PnL changes PER market
- Analyze your total trade history
Next up: markets 😛