paulthomaspanderson

$CIFR : Quick Comparison — Cipher’s Convertible Raise Today vs. Their September 2025 Raise Here’s the September 2025 offering, $1.1–1.3 billion 0% convertible notes due 2031: • Conversion price: $16.03 (37.5% premium to the $11.66 close on the pricing reference day). • Capped calls raised the effective dilution threshold to $23.32 (100% premium). • The stock fell roughly 17% on the announcement day (to the low $11s), driven by delta-hedging from the note buyers. But it then recovered and within weeks the price was back above the pre-deal level and subsequently rallied into the high teens and low-to-mid $20s by late 2025, later reaching the high $20s / low $30s in 2026 as Barber Lake and other HPC progress was reported. The 2025 convert was oversubscribed and the company used the proceeds for exactly the kind of build-out (Barber Lake, pipeline) that supported the later re-rating. In both cases (today’s and September 2025) the conversion price was set at a meaningful premium to the then-prevailing stock price, and the initial selloff proved temporary once the hedging flow cleared and execution continued. Note that we dont yet know the conversion price for the new raise or the effective dilution threshold but otherwise the current $850 million (potentially up to $1 billion) 0% deal due 2032 follows a similar pattern: zero coupon, planned capped calls, proceeds directed at Barber Lake equity and the HPC pipeline. This is just a quick comp of the basic points we know so far. I am 75% $NBIS holder but own a small $CIFR position NFA - Always Do Your Own Research