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GM! $BTC has staged a sharp reversal after the flush toward low $76K, climbing back to around $78.4K as the US midterm results come in. The move has been strong, but price is now approaching the $78.9K HVL, which is the next level buyers need to reclaim. Above that, the $80K call wall becomes the bigger upside reference, while $77.5K remains the key support to hold on any pullback. The initial reaction was a quick risk-off move as the results pointed to a Democratic sweep, but much of that downside has since been retraced. With the outcome now clearer, some of the election uncertainty has come out of the market, helping fuel the V-shaped bounce. There may still be concerns around the outlook for crypto legislation and regulation, so the political backdrop isn't entirely behind us, imo. Positioning is looking less hostile for now, with gamma back to balanced and charm still net long. Spot CVD has also turned positive, although perp CVD remains deeply negative. If Bitcoin can clear the $78.9K HVL, $80K is the next major level to watch. Otherwise, a rejection here could bring $77.5K support back into play.

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Equities are showing signs of stabilisation after the sharp sell-off, with buyers stepping in around the overnight lows. $NQ has recovered from roughly 28,038 to 28,350, while $ES has bounced from 7,546 to around 7,600. Both are trying to build a base, although they remain below the broader moving-average structure and still have plenty of resistance overhead. $CL is stabilising around $96.56 after dipping below $94, but remains under significant pressure after its steep decline from above $104. $Gold is holding near $3,945 following yesterday’s rebound towards $3,982, now consolidating below that resistance.

The rebound has lost momentum, with sellers stepping back in across equities. $NQ failed to hold above 28,800 and has dropped back towards 28,213, nearly retesting the overnight low around 28,100. $ES is showing a similar pattern, slipping to around 7,586 after failing to sustain its move towards 7,680. Both remain firmly below their key moving averages, so the broader trend is still pointing lower. Meanwhile, commodities are diverging. $CL has extended its decline to around $96, continuing the sharp unwind from above $104. $Gold, on the other hand, has recovered towards $3,957 after bouncing from below $3,880.

$BTC has given back some of the early recovery, slipping back toward $78K after struggling to clear the $78.5K HVL. The move higher has started to lose momentum, and price is sitting right around the $78K put wall. That is the immediate level to defend if buyers want to keep the recovery structure intact. Positioning remains a little cautious. Gamma is still short and amplifying, while charm has flipped back to net long, potentially offering some support if price stabilises here. Perp CVD remains deeply negative and spot flows have also weakened, so the buying behind this bounce still needs to show more conviction. A reclaim of $78.5K would put $79K back in focus, but losing $78K could open the door to another test of lower support.

Good morning macro 🌤️ Futures have seen a decent rebound off the overnight lows, but the broader picture is still mixed. $NQ bounced from around 28,233 to 28,785, while $ES recovered from roughly 7,558 to 7,651. Both have clawed back some ground after Friday’s heavy selling, although they’re still trading well below the recent highs and major moving averages. $CL has given back much of its recent rally, sliding from above $104 to around $99.56 and testing the recent low. $Gold is attempting a modest recovery near $3,910 after dipping below $3,880, but the broader downtrend remains intact. So far, the bounce fits the broader stabilisation in risk sentiment following Friday’s tech-led rout. US futures are recovering as oil eases on renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, taking some pressure off inflation concerns. Still, worries around AI spending haven’t gone away, while upcoming Apple earnings and the US midterm elections are keeping traders cautious.

New month, new week. GM. $BTC is opening the new week on a firmer note, recovering from the $77.5K area and pushing back toward $78.4K as futures come online. The bounce is encouraging, but it is still approaching the $79K 0DTE call wall, which looks like the first meaningful test for buyers. The $77.8K HVL is now the key level to hold if this recovery is going to gain traction. There is also some improvement in the Binance backdrop, with withdrawals now restored in phases after the exchange said it had recovered or replaced roughly 95% of the stolen assets. That may help ease some of the uncertainty that weighed on sentiment last week, although the market still needs to show follow-through. One thing to watch is that gamma remains short and amplifying, while charm has flipped to net short. Spot CVD is slightly positive, but perp CVD remains deeply negative, so I’d be cautious about treating this as a confirmed change in trend just yet. A clean push through $79K would improve the picture; otherwise, holding the $77.8K HVL remains important to keep the recovery intact.

Sunday GM $BTC