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QuantAlgo retweeted
GM!
$BTC has staged a sharp reversal after the flush toward low $76K, climbing back to around $78.4K as the US midterm results come in. The move has been strong, but price is now approaching the $78.9K HVL, which is the next level buyers need to reclaim. Above that, the $80K call wall becomes the bigger upside reference, while $77.5K remains the key support to hold on any pullback.
The initial reaction was a quick risk-off move as the results pointed to a Democratic sweep, but much of that downside has since been retraced. With the outcome now clearer, some of the election uncertainty has come out of the market, helping fuel the V-shaped bounce. There may still be concerns around the outlook for crypto legislation and regulation, so the political backdrop isn't entirely behind us, imo.
Positioning is looking less hostile for now, with gamma back to balanced and charm still net long. Spot CVD has also turned positive, although perp CVD remains deeply negative. If Bitcoin can clear the $78.9K HVL, $80K is the next major level to watch. Otherwise, a rejection here could bring $77.5K support back into play.
GM. $BTC has taken another leg lower, slipping from the $78.5K area and briefly testing the mid-$76Ks before bouncing back toward $77K. The recovery is still tentative, with price sitting just below the $77.45K HVL. That level is now the first hurdle to reclaim, while the $77K put support is the immediate downside area to watch.
The positioning picture has improved somewhat, though. Gamma has flipped to long and dampening, which could help contain volatility and reduce the risk of another sharp directional move. Charm remains net long, while spot CVD has turned positive, suggesting some dip buying is coming through. A sustained reclaim of $77.45K would put $78K and eventually the $78.5K call wall back in focus. Until then, this looks more like an attempt to stabilise after the latest selloff than a confirmed reversal, imo.
QuantAlgo retweeted
Equities are showing signs of stabilisation after the sharp sell-off, with buyers stepping in around the overnight lows. $NQ has recovered from roughly 28,038 to 28,350, while $ES has bounced from 7,546 to around 7,600. Both are trying to build a base, although they remain below the broader moving-average structure and still have plenty of resistance overhead.
$CL is stabilising around $96.56 after dipping below $94, but remains under significant pressure after its steep decline from above $104. $Gold is holding near $3,945 following yesterday’s rebound towards $3,982, now consolidating below that resistance.
The rebound has lost momentum, with sellers stepping back in across equities. $NQ failed to hold above 28,800 and has dropped back towards 28,213, nearly retesting the overnight low around 28,100. $ES is showing a similar pattern, slipping to around 7,586 after failing to sustain its move towards 7,680. Both remain firmly below their key moving averages, so the broader trend is still pointing lower.
Meanwhile, commodities are diverging. $CL has extended its decline to around $96, continuing the sharp unwind from above $104. $Gold, on the other hand, has recovered towards $3,957 after bouncing from below $3,880.
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QuantAlgo retweeted
GM. $BTC has taken another leg lower, slipping from the $78.5K area and briefly testing the mid-$76Ks before bouncing back toward $77K. The recovery is still tentative, with price sitting just below the $77.45K HVL. That level is now the first hurdle to reclaim, while the $77K put support is the immediate downside area to watch.
The positioning picture has improved somewhat, though. Gamma has flipped to long and dampening, which could help contain volatility and reduce the risk of another sharp directional move. Charm remains net long, while spot CVD has turned positive, suggesting some dip buying is coming through. A sustained reclaim of $77.45K would put $78K and eventually the $78.5K call wall back in focus. Until then, this looks more like an attempt to stabilise after the latest selloff than a confirmed reversal, imo.
$BTC has given back some of the early recovery, slipping back toward $78K after struggling to clear the $78.5K HVL. The move higher has started to lose momentum, and price is sitting right around the $78K put wall. That is the immediate level to defend if buyers want to keep the recovery structure intact.
Positioning remains a little cautious. Gamma is still short and amplifying, while charm has flipped back to net long, potentially offering some support if price stabilises here. Perp CVD remains deeply negative and spot flows have also weakened, so the buying behind this bounce still needs to show more conviction. A reclaim of $78.5K would put $79K back in focus, but losing $78K could open the door to another test of lower support.
QuantAlgo retweeted
$BTC has given back some of the early recovery, slipping back toward $78K after struggling to clear the $78.5K HVL. The move higher has started to lose momentum, and price is sitting right around the $78K put wall. That is the immediate level to defend if buyers want to keep the recovery structure intact.
Positioning remains a little cautious. Gamma is still short and amplifying, while charm has flipped back to net long, potentially offering some support if price stabilises here. Perp CVD remains deeply negative and spot flows have also weakened, so the buying behind this bounce still needs to show more conviction. A reclaim of $78.5K would put $79K back in focus, but losing $78K could open the door to another test of lower support.
New month, new week. GM.
$BTC is opening the new week on a firmer note, recovering from the $77.5K area and pushing back toward $78.4K as futures come online. The bounce is encouraging, but it is still approaching the $79K 0DTE call wall, which looks like the first meaningful test for buyers. The $77.8K HVL is now the key level to hold if this recovery is going to gain traction.
There is also some improvement in the Binance backdrop, with withdrawals now restored in phases after the exchange said it had recovered or replaced roughly 95% of the stolen assets. That may help ease some of the uncertainty that weighed on sentiment last week, although the market still needs to show follow-through.
One thing to watch is that gamma remains short and amplifying, while charm has flipped to net short. Spot CVD is slightly positive, but perp CVD remains deeply negative, so I’d be cautious about treating this as a confirmed change in trend just yet. A clean push through $79K would improve the picture; otherwise, holding the $77.8K HVL remains important to keep the recovery intact.
QuantAlgo retweeted
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QuantAlgo retweeted
Good morning macro 🌤️
Futures have seen a decent rebound off the overnight lows, but the broader picture is still mixed. $NQ bounced from around 28,233 to 28,785, while $ES recovered from roughly 7,558 to 7,651. Both have clawed back some ground after Friday’s heavy selling, although they’re still trading well below the recent highs and major moving averages.
$CL has given back much of its recent rally, sliding from above $104 to around $99.56 and testing the recent low. $Gold is attempting a modest recovery near $3,910 after dipping below $3,880, but the broader downtrend remains intact.
So far, the bounce fits the broader stabilisation in risk sentiment following Friday’s tech-led rout. US futures are recovering as oil eases on renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, taking some pressure off inflation concerns. Still, worries around AI spending haven’t gone away, while upcoming Apple earnings and the US midterm elections are keeping traders cautious.
And the sell-off has accelerated into month-end...
$NQ has dropped to around 28,200, while $ES is down near 7,600. Both remain in clear short-term downtrends, despite a small bounce off the latest lows.
$CL is holding around $103 after briefly pushing above $104.50, keeping energy prices elevated. $Gold, meanwhile, has suffered another sharp leg lower to around $3,880, extending the recent reversal from above $4,000.
The catalyst is a broader unwind in AI and tech valuations. Disappointing results and outlooks from Intel and Amazon reignited concerns over how much Big Tech is spending on AI versus the returns it is generating. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% on Friday, its worst session since June, while the S&P 500 lost 1.82%.
Oil is staying firm amid renewed Middle East supply concerns, adding to inflation pressure, while gold has been hit by forced selling and expectations of tighter monetary policy. That leaves markets heading into November with risk appetite under pressure and plenty of attention on whether the tech sell-off spreads further.
QuantAlgo retweeted
$BTC is heading into the weekend still struggling to build a convincing recovery after the sharp flush earlier in the week. Price has stabilised around $77.5K, but the rebound remains fairly contained, with positioning still showing persistent selling pressure across perpetuals and spot.
The immediate battle is around $77.4K-$77.6K, with the HVL sitting just below at roughly $76.9K. Losing that area could reopen a move toward the $76K put wall, while reclaiming it would give buyers a chance to push back toward the $78.25K call wall.
Have a great weekend!
And $BTC failed to hold the $80K area and suffered another sharp flush, briefly sweeping below $77K before bouncing back toward $78K. The Binance hack headlines added another layer of fear to an already fragile market, likely accelerating the downside as traders rushed to reduce risk. The move has now reclaimed the $77.5K put wall, but buyers still need to prove they can turn this bounce into a stable base rather than another short-lived relief rally.
Gamma is short and amplifying, so volatility can remain elevated even after the initial flush. The $77.5K put wall is the immediate level to defend, while $79.5K is the first meaningful resistance overhead. Charm has turned net long, which may help support the rebound, but #Bitcoin needs to hold above $77.5K and start reclaiming higher levels before we can call a proper recovery, imo.
QuantAlgo retweeted
And the sell-off has accelerated into month-end...
$NQ has dropped to around 28,200, while $ES is down near 7,600. Both remain in clear short-term downtrends, despite a small bounce off the latest lows.
$CL is holding around $103 after briefly pushing above $104.50, keeping energy prices elevated. $Gold, meanwhile, has suffered another sharp leg lower to around $3,880, extending the recent reversal from above $4,000.
The catalyst is a broader unwind in AI and tech valuations. Disappointing results and outlooks from Intel and Amazon reignited concerns over how much Big Tech is spending on AI versus the returns it is generating. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% on Friday, its worst session since June, while the S&P 500 lost 1.82%.
Oil is staying firm amid renewed Middle East supply concerns, adding to inflation pressure, while gold has been hit by forced selling and expectations of tighter monetary policy. That leaves markets heading into November with risk appetite under pressure and plenty of attention on whether the tech sell-off spreads further.
Another sharp sell-off in equities, with $NQ breaking down towards 29,100 and $ES slipping to around 7,708. Both are now well below the recent highs, with NQ testing the 29,000 area and ES approaching 7,700. The weakness suggests yesterday’s recovery has failed to hold, with sellers regaining control.
Meanwhile, $CL has bounced back above $102 after testing below $100, while $Gold has continued lower towards $4,018, giving back much of its recent recovery.
So far, the broader pressure is coming from renewed concerns around Big Tech’s AI spending: the Nasdaq lost 1.37% in Thursday’s session, led by Alphabet’s 12.6% plunge, while Intel and Amazon also sold off after reporting. Stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP and sticky September PCE inflation are adding to the rate concerns, keeping the Fed’s next move firmly in focus.
QuantAlgo retweeted
$BTC ETFs recorded modest inflows of +$17.2M, extending the rebound seen over the past few days.
Meanwhile, $ETH ETFs saw $105.5M in outflows, led by ETHA (-$71.7M), ETHE (-$15.5M), and ETHB (-$15.6M).
QuantAlgo retweeted
And $BTC failed to hold the $80K area and suffered another sharp flush, briefly sweeping below $77K before bouncing back toward $78K. The Binance hack headlines added another layer of fear to an already fragile market, likely accelerating the downside as traders rushed to reduce risk. The move has now reclaimed the $77.5K put wall, but buyers still need to prove they can turn this bounce into a stable base rather than another short-lived relief rally.
Gamma is short and amplifying, so volatility can remain elevated even after the initial flush. The $77.5K put wall is the immediate level to defend, while $79.5K is the first meaningful resistance overhead. Charm has turned net long, which may help support the rebound, but #Bitcoin needs to hold above $77.5K and start reclaiming higher levels before we can call a proper recovery, imo.
GM.
$BTC is back around $80K after another failed attempt to push higher, with price repeatedly getting rejected around $81.5K-$82K. The good news is that selling pressure appears to have eased somewhat, with CVD recovering toward neutral on spot, but buyers still haven't managed to turn that into a sustained breakout. Open interest remains elevated around $22.1B, so the next move will be worth watching for signs of fresh positioning versus another round of liquidations.
Gamma has flipped long and dampening, with charm balanced, suggesting price could remain relatively contained around the current range for now. The immediate battleground is $80K, with $81K and the $81.5K-$82K zone overhead. Holding support could keep BTC grinding sideways or allow another recovery attempt, while a clean break below $80K would bring the $79K area back into focus.
QuantAlgo retweeted
Another sharp sell-off in equities, with $NQ breaking down towards 29,100 and $ES slipping to around 7,708. Both are now well below the recent highs, with NQ testing the 29,000 area and ES approaching 7,700. The weakness suggests yesterday’s recovery has failed to hold, with sellers regaining control.
Meanwhile, $CL has bounced back above $102 after testing below $100, while $Gold has continued lower towards $4,018, giving back much of its recent recovery.
So far, the broader pressure is coming from renewed concerns around Big Tech’s AI spending: the Nasdaq lost 1.37% in Thursday’s session, led by Alphabet’s 12.6% plunge, while Intel and Amazon also sold off after reporting. Stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP and sticky September PCE inflation are adding to the rate concerns, keeping the Fed’s next move firmly in focus.
The rally is losing steam after yesterday’s push higher. $NQ is back around 29,680 after briefly spiking above 30,000, while $ES has pulled back towards 7,750 after testing 7,780. The Fed held rates steady, but the statement was more hawkish than hoped, with two members voting for an immediate hike and markets increasingly pricing in a December move. Meanwhile, big tech earnings are adding to the uncertainty: Microsoft jumped after strong cloud growth, while Alphabet dropped sharply as investors questioned its heavy AI spending.
$CL remains elevated around $101 after the latest Saudi refinery attack renewed supply concerns. $Gold is holding near $4,066 after its rebound, but remains well below recent highs. With oil adding to inflation pressure and Treasury yields rising after the Fed decision, the next move in equities likely depends on whether earnings can offset the increasingly hawkish rate outlook.
QuantAlgo retweeted
GM.
$BTC is back around $80K after another failed attempt to push higher, with price repeatedly getting rejected around $81.5K-$82K. The good news is that selling pressure appears to have eased somewhat, with CVD recovering toward neutral on spot, but buyers still haven't managed to turn that into a sustained breakout. Open interest remains elevated around $22.1B, so the next move will be worth watching for signs of fresh positioning versus another round of liquidations.
Gamma has flipped long and dampening, with charm balanced, suggesting price could remain relatively contained around the current range for now. The immediate battleground is $80K, with $81K and the $81.5K-$82K zone overhead. Holding support could keep BTC grinding sideways or allow another recovery attempt, while a clean break below $80K would bring the $79K area back into focus.
And $BTC has bounced back toward $81.3K after briefly dipping below $80K earlier in the week 👀
Price has reclaimed the $80.5K area and is holding above the $81.2K put support, while CVD has improved significantly from yesterday's extremes.
There are some signs of stabilisation, but the broader structure still looks like a relief bounce within a weakened range rather than a confirmed trend reversal so far, imo.
Gamma remains short and amplifying, with charm also net short, so volatility can pick up quickly if either side loses control. The immediate test is around $81.4K, with $82K next if buyers can push through. On the downside, losing $81.2K would put $80.5K back in focus, followed by $80K.
QuantAlgo retweeted
The rally is losing steam after yesterday’s push higher. $NQ is back around 29,680 after briefly spiking above 30,000, while $ES has pulled back towards 7,750 after testing 7,780. The Fed held rates steady, but the statement was more hawkish than hoped, with two members voting for an immediate hike and markets increasingly pricing in a December move. Meanwhile, big tech earnings are adding to the uncertainty: Microsoft jumped after strong cloud growth, while Alphabet dropped sharply as investors questioned its heavy AI spending.
$CL remains elevated around $101 after the latest Saudi refinery attack renewed supply concerns. $Gold is holding near $4,066 after its rebound, but remains well below recent highs. With oil adding to inflation pressure and Treasury yields rising after the Fed decision, the next move in equities likely depends on whether earnings can offset the increasingly hawkish rate outlook.
$NQ and $ES are extending the recovery, with NQ pushing towards 29,900 and ES holding around 7,760 after Tuesday’s tech-led rally. The rebound is getting some help from renewed AI momentum and optimism around Anthropic, but the real test comes today with the Fed decision and earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady, so the focus will be on Kevin Warsh’s comments and any clues about a potential December hike. Big Tech also needs to show that its massive AI spending is translating into growth and returns.
Meanwhile, $CL has cooled to around $100 after pulling back from its recent highs, as hopes for Middle East talks ease some supply concerns, though prices remain elevated. $Gold has staged a sharp rebound towards $4,075 after bottoming near $3,990, but it still has a lot of ground to recover from the broader sell-off. With the Fed and mega-cap earnings landing together, expect volatility to pick up as markets digest both the rate outlook and the next signal on AI spending!
QuantAlgo retweeted
And $BTC has bounced back toward $81.3K after briefly dipping below $80K earlier in the week 👀
Price has reclaimed the $80.5K area and is holding above the $81.2K put support, while CVD has improved significantly from yesterday's extremes.
There are some signs of stabilisation, but the broader structure still looks like a relief bounce within a weakened range rather than a confirmed trend reversal so far, imo.
Gamma remains short and amplifying, with charm also net short, so volatility can pick up quickly if either side loses control. The immediate test is around $81.4K, with $82K next if buyers can push through. On the downside, losing $81.2K would put $80.5K back in focus, followed by $80K.
GM.
$BTC is still struggling to reclaim $80K after yesterday’s flush, with price hovering around $79.8K and another attempt at recovery quickly stalling. The market is consolidating near the lows rather than showing a convincing reversal, while CVD remains deeply negative at around -$4.5B. Open interest has climbed back toward $22B, so it’s worth watching whether fresh positioning supports a bounce or simply adds fuel to another move lower.
Gamma remains short and amplifying, keeping the risk of sharp moves elevated, although charm has flipped net long. The immediate battle is around the $79.8K put wall, with $80K-$81K overhead acting as resistance. Holding this area could allow a relief bounce, but a clean breakdown would put $79K and potentially $78K back in focus. For now, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $80K and hold it before the structure starts to look healthier, imo.
Chart: backquant.com/?fpr=quantalgo
QuantAlgo retweeted
$NQ and $ES are extending the recovery, with NQ pushing towards 29,900 and ES holding around 7,760 after Tuesday’s tech-led rally. The rebound is getting some help from renewed AI momentum and optimism around Anthropic, but the real test comes today with the Fed decision and earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady, so the focus will be on Kevin Warsh’s comments and any clues about a potential December hike. Big Tech also needs to show that its massive AI spending is translating into growth and returns.
Meanwhile, $CL has cooled to around $100 after pulling back from its recent highs, as hopes for Middle East talks ease some supply concerns, though prices remain elevated. $Gold has staged a sharp rebound towards $4,075 after bottoming near $3,990, but it still has a lot of ground to recover from the broader sell-off. With the Fed and mega-cap earnings landing together, expect volatility to pick up as markets digest both the rate outlook and the next signal on AI spending!
Risk appetite is back on the table, with $NQ rallying towards 29,600 and $ES recovering to around 7,730 after yesterday’s rebound. Both have pushed higher from the recent lows, although they’re still trading beneath the broader overhead moving averages.
$ANT Anthropic’s IPO filing has helped revive AI sentiment, but the market still needs to see whether the upcoming results from Alphabet and Microsoft tomorrow can justify the enormous AI spending. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday is another major catalyst, with guidance on December policy likely to matter more than the expected hold.
$CL is holding near $101 after pulling back from its recent spike, with attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping keeping supply risks elevated despite hopes of easing Middle East tensions. $Gold is stabilising around $4,027 after last week’s sharp sell-off, but the broader trend remains weak. With the Fed and mega-cap earnings approaching, expect sentiment to remain headline-driven and volatility to pick up around the key releases.
QuantAlgo retweeted
$BTC ETFs saw +$110.3M in inflows so far (all from IBIT), while $ETH ETFs posted -$88.6M in outflows (mainly ETHA -$104.7M, partially offset by FETH +$16.1M).
