Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps) profile picture

Dzīvoju Latvijā, rakstu komentārus žurnālam Ir

Rīga, Latvija
Joined April 2009
Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)Photo by Pauls Raudseps (@raudseps)
Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Excellent comment on this FT article about the Binance hack ft.com/content/1d4dd7b2-9dee…
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
The situation in Poland is much simpler than all the talk of a “coup” suggests. PiS, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party, which backed current President Karol Nawrocki, refused to recognise three lawfully elected Constitutional Tribunal judges back in 2015, together with then-President Andrzej Duda. Those judges were Roman Hauser, Andrzej Jakubecki and Krzysztof Ślebzak. PiS installed its own picks in their seats: Henryk Cioch, Lech Morawski and Mariusz Muszyński. Even after the Tribunal confirmed that the original three had been lawfully elected, PiS and Duda refused to respect its ruling. They put their own political interests above the court’s decision. Yes, the previous PO–PSL coalition had also broken the rules by electing two additional judges before it was entitled to: Bronisław Sitek and Andrzej Sokala. But when the Tribunal ruled against those appointments, the coalition accepted the decision. Borys Budka even apologised on behalf of PO. PiS never complied with the ruling concerning the three lawfully elected judges. That difference matters. One side accepted an unfavourable ruling. The other refused to obey it. The court’s membership changed over the years. Cioch and Morawski died in 2017 and were replaced by Jarosław Wyrembak and Justyn Piskorski. Muszyński’s nine-year term ended in December 2024. Other judges’ terms ended too. Seats became vacant, and new judges needed to be elected. Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal judges are elected by the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, for nine-year terms. Donald Tusk’s governing coalition currently holds a majority there. That majority has the constitutional right to elect judges to fill those vacancies. PiS losing its parliamentary majority did not give it the right to block that process indefinitely. The Sejm elected eight new judges. President Nawrocki accepted the oaths of three: Magdalena Bentkowska, Dariusz Szostek and Sławomir Patyra. But he refused to accept the oaths of the other five: Krystian Markiewicz, Maciej Taborowski, Marcin Dziurda, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska and Maciej Berek. They eventually took their oaths without him present, formally addressing them to the president. The oath is required by law. But it does not give the president a personal veto over parliament’s choice of judges. He is required to accept their oaths. The Tribunal itself ruled on this back in 2015. In October 2026, the Venice Commission backed that interpretation and supported allowing judges to take their oaths without the president physically present if he blocks the process, provided the necessary formalities are followed. Yet the leadership of the very same Tribunal where PiS had unlawfully installed its own judges refused to let the new judges do their jobs. The court’s president, Bogdan Święczkowski, insisted that they could not serve unless they took their oaths in Nawrocki’s presence. The president blocked the normal procedure, and the Tribunal’s leadership used that blockage to keep them out. On October 30, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska announced the temporary suspension of Święczkowski and his deputy, Bartłomiej Sochański, and assumed leadership of the Tribunal. Lawyers dispute whether she had the legal authority to suspend them in that way. That specific step deserves legal scrutiny. It does not erase the obstruction that led to it. I support Tusk’s efforts to end this obstruction, and I don’t buy the claims of a coup. PiS does not get to unlawfully install its own judges, refuse to respect court rulings, and then demand that everyone treat the situation it created as untouchable. Tusk is right to push back. Judges elected by the Sejm should be allowed to do their jobs. The president has constitutional duties, not a personal veto over the court’s membership. And PiS has no permanent claim to Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal.
🤖 Made with AI
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Russia's war losses may have hit 2.1 million troops with up to 770 thousand killed, according to a new Economist estimate, a sharp jump from its May figure of 280 to 518 thousand dead. The Economist now puts total casualties at 1.4 to 2.1 million and deaths at 374 to 770 thousand, up from 900 thousand to 1.3 million total and 190 to 350 thousand killed back in July 2025. Ukraine's General Staff separately puts total Russian casualties at around 1,588,170 as of October 31, with Russia losing an average of 1750 troops a day in October alone. Ukrainian forces meanwhile advanced 73 square kilometers over the past three months, retaking about half the territory Russia seized this year. economist.com/interactive/gr…
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❗️The Trump administration is pressing Lithuania to reopen Klaipėda port for Belarusian potash exports despite EU sanctions, Politico reports. US envoy John Coale has reportedly sounded out Lithuanian diplomats in recent weeks about easing restrictions. Washington wants to reduce US dependence on Canadian potash and lower costs for American farmers. One Eastern European official described Lithuania’s response as: “No, damn it.” #Lithuania
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
14. Saeimas skaļās beigas. Latvijas skandalozie zinātnieki. Kulberga padomnieku nedienas. Par šīm aktualitātēm jaunajā "Šķiltavā" diskutē "Ir" kolēģi Ieva Jakone, @raudseps un @AivarsOzo. 🔗 open.spotify.com/episode/74J…
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
"Within days, Russian soldiers poisoned their dog, an Alabai, along with all the other large dogs in Oleshky. They killed Liudmila’s nextdoor neighbor and raped his wife. A local butcher disappeared; no one knew whether he was also killed. Some neighbors were detained and beaten. Armed, masked soldiers searched Liudmila’s home three times, confiscating the couple’s Ukrainian passports and leaving them with no documents. And yet, Liudmila and Andriy stayed. They got a new puppy, also an Alabai. Russian troops started to move into civilian houses, parking tanks in what once were gardens."
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Elon Musk has spent more money on American elections in the last two years than George Soros has in his entire life.
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Kāpēc Francijā uzliesmo protesti? Pastāvīgā vardarbība Rietumkrastā. Alberta noraida separātismu. Par šīm un citām ārpolitikas aktualitātēm diskutē vēsturniece Una Bergmane un "Ir" komentētājs @raudseps. 🔗 open.spotify.com/episode/7c5… #SIF_MAF2026
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
.@EconUS/@YouGovAmerica: In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, who do you sympathize with more? Registered voters 🇺🇦 66% 🇷🇺 3% Dem 🇺🇦 82% 🇷🇺 1% GOP 🇺🇦 52% 🇷🇺 4% Ind 🇺🇦 64% 🇷🇺 4% Lib 🇺🇦 88% 🇷🇺 1% Mod 🇺🇦 65% 🇷🇺 2% Con 🇺🇦 52% 🇷🇺 6% MAGA 🇺🇦 50% 🇷🇺 5% Oct. 19-20, 2026
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Lai kas nenotiku LSM kolektīvā un cik dažādās pozīcijās nebūtu tā darbinieki, es aicinātu ar ļoti lielu piesardzību uztvert dažādu partiju, melno piaršiku un “politologu” dedzīgo vēlmi tagad visu “sakārtot”. Aiz tās stāv tikai un vienīgi tieksme apklusināt. Un vēl (1/2)
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Kulbergu gaidot. Ideoloģizētā veselības mācība. Sabiedrības digitālais dvīnis Par šīm aktualitātēm jaunajā "Šķiltavā" diskutē "Ir" kolēģi Ieva Jakone, @raudseps un @AivarsOzo. 🔗 open.spotify.com/episode/51z…
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Latvijas valsts ir pelnījusi tādu Zinātņu akdaēmiju, kurai var uzticēties. Un uzticību var atjaunot tikai paši akadēmiķi./1
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So tomorrow, the first tanker carrying 40,000 metric tons of Russian diesel is set to depart for the US. Let’s do the math. ​40,000 tons is roughly 300,000 barrels. ​The US consumes about 4 million barrels of diesel per day. That means this entire tanker covers less than two hours of American demand. ​At the same time, the US exports around 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day—meaning this shipment is equivalent to just 4.5 hours of US exports. ​The voyage from Ust-Luga to US terminals takes 2.5 to 3 weeks. By the time the tanker arrives, the US will have exported over 4 million tons of its own diesel—a hundred times more than what this single tanker is delivering. ​So, one of the world's largest diesel exporters is buying diesel from an aggressor state just to cover two hours of domestic consumption? - Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladyslav Vlasiuk.
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Bucha. It was a genocide, recognized by everyone. They buried hundreds of people. They tortured people. We found the grave. There were, I believe, around 500 people. When we liberated those towns near Kyiv, there emerged this, you know, this kind of hatred for the Russians, right at that moment. Not even at the moment when they started the full-scale war. Back then nobody understood what it really was yet. People understood what this war was and what Putin did personally when we found those mass graves of tortured adults, children. I mean they didn't just kill them, they tortured and killed them. When we liberated Bucha, I said, bring every journalist here. Don't touch anything, just bring the journalists. The whole world simply has to see this. Imagine finding a mass grave in the U.S. or in Britain, God forbid, with 500 tortured people, adults, kids, dogs, animals shot dead. I mean, they held hunting sprees there from military vehicles. People were running, they were shooting, just hunting, playing games. They literally just played with people, like slavery. So how, after this, can you listen to Putin? And how, after this, can you forgive? From The Diary of a CEO podcast with Steven Bartlett. (2/3)
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
NEW: Rosneft deep dive by Bloomberg News + Officials at Russia’s largest oil producer are concerned that even a few more months of the war with Ukraine could leave lasting damage across the business. + One of Rosneft’s biggest refineries, Ryazan, has been shut for more than half the time since it was first hit by Ukraine in May and has run well below full capacity when operating, according to damage assessments seen by Bloomberg. + Another, Syzran, has spent much of the past six months either completely shut or operating at less than a third of capacity, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg. The Tuapse refinery has been offline since April. + Ukraine is conducting repeat strikes on the refineries as soon as repairs are completed or nearing completion. The need to repeatedly repair damaged equipment is straining operations and causing costs to pile up to levels that Rosneft officials have privately warned cannot be sustained long-term. + Some plants have deliberately slowed repairs as a result, stretching work that should take days into weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. + Efforts to protect the facilities with shipping containers, nets and steel cables have proved ineffective against swarms of drones, company plans show. + The damage is particularly difficult to repair when strikes hit complex secondary units, whose parts would previously have been sourced from the West. It means relying on Russian-made copies and Chinese imports that can take months to obtain and are not always compatible with existing machinery. + It’s put Rosneft into financial trouble. Even before the ramping up of Ukraine’s drone campaign, the company saw a “perfect storm” for its finances. Since then, its profits are down and debt is rising despite what should have been a big windfall from the Iran war. + Moscow Credit Bank, which is linked to Rosneft, is showing signs of distress with $8 billion of problem loans. It highlights how both Russia’s energy and banking sectors are coming under strain at the same time, a dynamic causing concern to Russian finance officials. All this and much more in the full story here: bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
The latest cover of Private Eye is 😘
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
📊 The 2016 Brexit electorate no longer exists. Peter Kellner has updated the sums using YouGov and ONS data. Since 2016: 🔹 Around 3.8m Leave voters have died, against 2.1m Remain voters. 🔹 Around 7m new voters have reached voting age, overwhelmingly pro-European. 🔹 Around 5m voters have changed their minds 👉roughly three-quarters of them moving from Leave to Rejoin. His estimate of how Britain would vote now: 🇪🇺 REJOIN: 20.0m 👉 63% 🇬🇧 STAY OUT: 11.8m 👉 37% A majority of almost 9 million. Brexit happened. Britain has lived with it for a decade. But democracy does not freeze the electorate in 2016 forever. The question is what Britain wants now not what it indicated in 2016.
📊 The Brexit majority hasn’t just slipped 👉it’s vanished. Completely. This chart from Peter Kellner/YouGov shows: • 5 million 2016 voters have died • New young voters back Rejoin by 5:1 • 29% of Leave voters now want to rejoin • Net result: Rejoin 19.8m vs Stay Out 11.7m ➡️ An 8 MILLION majority for Rejoin. Britain is now a pro-EU country. The only people keeping Brexit alive are politicians who benefit from the damage.
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A horrific Russian strike in the Kharkiv region. A “shahed” struck people directly – in a park near an ordinary café. Pure atrocity. Six people were killed, including children. A little girl was killed in a stroller – her name was Angelina, she was just over a year old, born in August 2025… Her mother’s name was Inna. She died in the hospital… Another girl who was killed was 11 years old. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Another 14 people were injured, including six more children. I am grateful to everyone who supports Ukraine under these circumstances and helps us shoot down “shaheds,” shoot down missiles, and stop Russian assaults. These are horrific photos, but behind them are shattered lives and the truth about this war. Lives must be protected. Ukraine needs air defense. You can't think about making money with Russia as long as it continues its asinine war. We ask that sanctions on Russia stay in place as long as the killings continue. We ask America to be strong, and we ask it to apply the Lindsey Graham law. We ask Europe to continue its support. We ask that everything possible be done to bring peace and guarantee security. Ukraine wants peace. It is Russia that has insisted on continuing the killing all this time. The world has enough strength to stop the war. That strength must finally be used – against the murderers.
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Pauls Raudseps retweeted
Starlink has absolutely no role in the one military campaign Trump claims he wants Ukraine to end: hitting Russian oil refineries. It only works in Ukraine and it helps with air defense — homegrown air defense, to be specific, which was born of necessity because we aren’t providing enough missile interceptors. A Russian Shahed today killed a one-year baby in a park. The U.S. is actively making it easier for Russia to commit these atrocities by throttling satellite internet. All while Trump makes excuses for Putin.
🇺🇦 Zelenskyy delivers a blunt message to the United States: “Just give us Starlink back. If you refuse, Ukraine will survive. We will continue defending ourselves with or without it. But why would you restrict a country fighting for its survival? Why make it harder for us to defend our people? I simply cannot understand the reasoning behind this decision. It is a mistake.” Ukraine isn’t asking America to fight its war. It’s asking America not to stand in the way of its defense.
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