@BBCNews’s statistician. Number nerd 24-7-365.2425.
London, England
Joined July 2009
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We're set to feel poorer next year.
- Poorer than this year (the dip in the light green dashed at the start of the forecast).
- Poorer that we thought we'd be (the latest forecast is lower than March's)
It's the Iran war effect.
Not surprising.
Not as bad as the Ukraine and post-pandemic effect (the BIG dip in 2022/23).
But still not nice.
Robert Cuffe retweeted
Here's the real story of this Budget, the can being kicked down the road. This Labour government is apparently planning spending cuts on most areas of public service spending of 2.6% per year between 2028-29 and 2031-32.
Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
Picture for govt borrowing is worse in this OBR forecast than it was in March. Every borrowing fig (PSNB) is a bigger share of the economy in the Oct forecast than in March's.
Table 6.1 of OBR
assets.publishing.service.go…
New OBR growth forecasts don't change medium picture much. The main change is when growth is forecast to land.
March forecast: 7.5% growth by 2030
Today's forecast: 7.6%.
ALT UK GDP growth forecasts for calendar years between 2026 and 2031. 2026 is forecast at 1.2% before dropping to 1% in 2027, a steep drop on the previous March forecast. In 2028 it recovers to 1.6% and in 2029 it rises to 1.8% before dropping back to 1.7% and 1.6%
Should all government statistics look like the Department for Education’s?
If you have a view see here for how to comment: analysisfunction.civilservic…
Got a marketing survey about ppl who admitted to lying on CVs. Reminds me of a riddle about two doors and two guards.
One door led to hell, the other heaven. One guard could tell only the truth, the other only lies.
So we surveyed both - our results say use our site for your CV.
Robert Cuffe retweeted
Things like spin rates and groundstroke speed often get shown on broadcast but they're pretty incomplete in isolation. But if you capture each stage of a groundstroke you start to get a much fuller picture of the shot and the differences. For e.g it'll probably surprise people that Medvedev, one of the flatter forehand hitters, has the highest avg forehand net clearance of the Top 10. But he makes contact from further back, hits the ball more slowly than his peers, and yet still lands his shots pretty deep (reduced magnus effect forcing ball down compared to higher-spin peers). It's a pretty distinct shot shape to most of the rest of the top 10 and it's also a good example of how different contact inputs (contact point, speed, spin) can affect the outputs (net clearance and depth)
Robert Cuffe retweeted
Prince William visited my local ActOne cinema yday.
Hard to quantify what it’s brought to community in 5 yrs-from supporting young people to relaxed screenings for neurodivergent customers. & returned a real buzz to the high st.
Wills clearly has gd taste @_petermason @RupaHuq
Robert Cuffe retweeted
You can tell Ozempic and Mounjaro are popular…in our Timpson shops we have seen a 680% increase in the number of free holes in customers belts we’ve been doing this year.
Robert Cuffe retweeted
Today, we are pleased to announce that His Majesty the King, on the advice of the Prime Minister, has appointed André Loranger to be the UK’s next National Statistician.
uksa.statisticsauthority.gov…
Statisticians*: “relative changes, schmelative schmanges : doubling a small number is still a small nu…..”
Also statisticians: “CHECK OUT THIS CHART!!! We rule”
ALT Bar chart showing statistics had the biggest growth - in relative terms - of any GCSE subject this year.
Robert Cuffe retweeted
Interesting piece from BBC on vape shops & others still registered to sponsor migrant workers
I was on Radio 4 at 6.45am to explain why. It's an unintended consequence of post-Brexit expansion that made mid-skilled jobs (eg electricians etc) eligible
🧵
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj63…
Watching a Mel Gibson vehicle on Prime, I’m prepared to bet that I’m seeing my first example of a Chekhov’s lawn mower
Robert Cuffe retweeted
Many are claiming this analysis proves that Scotland’s 48% top tax rate reduced revenue. While it’s useful analysis, the data doesn’t support such a definitive conclusion.
Here’s why we should treat it with some caution🧵
