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Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei has officially entered a BEAR MARKET: The Nikkei 225 Index closed -6.0% lower on Friday, leaving it more than -20% below its June peak. TAP IMAGE TO SEE FULL INSIGHT👇 globalmarketsinvestor.beehii…

Berkshire Hathaway Q3 operating earnings fall 5.8% y/y to $12.71bn. $BRK.A #Earnings

25 chip stocks are now in a bear market. Here's how far each one sits below its 52-week high: 1. Amkor - $AMKR: -68% 2. SanDisk - $SNDK: -66% 3. Astera Labs - $ALAB: -64% 4. Credo - $CRDO: -64% 5. Intel - $INTC: -63% 6. Arm Holdings - $ARM: -63% 7. Coherent - $COHR: -61% 8. GlobalFoundries - $GFS: -61% 9. Marvell Technology - $MRVL: -60% 10. KLA - $KLAC: -58% 11. Lam Research - $LRCX: -58% 12. Applied Materials - $AMAT: -57% 13. Lumentum - $LITE: -55% 14. ON Semiconductor - $ON: -53% 15. STMicroelectronics - $STM: -51% 16. Micron - $MU: -48% 17. Broadcom - $AVGO: -41% 18. Qualcomm - $QCOM: -40% 19. AMD - $AMD: -39% 20. SK Hynix - $SKHY: -38% 21. Monolithic Power - $MPWR: -34% 22. ASML - $ASML: -32% 23. NXP Semiconductors - $NXPI: -28% 24. TSMC - $TSM: -28% 25. Nvidia - $NVDA: -25%

🇺🇸 Americans are borrowing to keep up: Consumer credit jumped $27.8 billion in September, the most since November 2022 and more than double the roughly $12 billion expected. In the same month, real disposable income fell 0.3% and the personal saving rate slid to 3.8%, the lowest since October 2022. This comes as inflation takes a bigger bite out of every paycheck. With the PCE price index up 0.5% in a single month and CPI up 3.7% from a year ago, households leaned on credit just to keep real spending flat. Credit card demand rose the most in four years in the Fed’s latest loan officer survey, and banks pointed to higher prices as the main reason. That debt isn’t cheap. The average rate on cards charging interest is 22.36%, the highest in a year, and the Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023. The last time borrowing ran this hot and saving ran this thin was late 2022.

$CRWV $META coreweave has two term loans financing nvidia hardware for the same parent, and one pays 325 basis points more than the other. -- loan 4.0, $8.5bn, pays SOFR plus 2.25% and is rated A3, because meta's contract backs it. -- loan 5.5, $2.6bn, pays SOFR plus 5.50%, is rated Ba2 and BB+, and lends for five years against customer contracts of about three. -- the unsecured 2031 notes, with nothing specific behind them, yielded about 16% at a new low of 79.5 cents on 4 november. the two loan vehicles differ in structure too, so the customer isn't the whole gap, but i think it's most of it. coreweave's own release says loan 5.5 outlasts its contracts and gives it the option to renew or re-lease the capacity, which is a bet on future rent more than on what the chips would sell for. the loan documents point the same way. on CCIR's ledger of GPU credit as of 31 october, seven facilities test collateral against cost written down over about six years, five cap the loan at a share of cost when each draw funds, four size it on contracted cash flow, and none runs an ongoing market-value test. coreweave signed $33.8bn of financing in 2026 alone, and principal outstanding was $35.6bn at 30 june, with $10.6bn of it due by the end of 2027. my sense is the market has split coreweave into two credits: the contract cash, senior and cheap, and the GPU's later years, junior and priced like distress.

SoftBank added $40.4B of debt in 12 months to fund AI bets. It bragged debt was 13% of holdings. Then the holdings fell and the debt stayed the same. Elon also said that SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders. Its stock is -59% since June, -10.8% today. The market is clearly sniffing something out.

🦔Someone wants out of roughly $500 million in data center loans at once. Bloomberg reports an unnamed seller put a dozen loans up for bid, including a $25 million piece of OpenAI’s Stargate site in New Mexico, plus debt tied to big operators Vantage and CyrusOne. It’s one of the first auctions made up only of data center debt. The sale comes two days after the midterms, and Texas’s incoming Democratic governor has already called for an immediate halt on new data center construction. My Take I wrote about that New Mexico site in September. Oracle, the tenant, sent the developer a force majeure notice there, which is the legal clause a company uses to say events outside its control may let it off the hook. I’d sell a loan on that project too. Bloomberg didn’t name the seller and I won’t guess, but picking this week looks deliberate to me. The rest of the market isn’t helping. The Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 6.4% today, and junk bonds tied to data center builders like CoreWeave took some of the worst hits. Loans like these normally trade in private, so outsiders rarely see a price. On Nov. 19, when bids come due, we get one. A steep discount would force every lender with similar paper to mark theirs down too, and I’d bet more sellers line up after that. Hedgie🤗

“A record 112 borrowers with private debt defaulted on their obligations, marking a 22% increase from the previous quarter. KBRA analyzed more than 3,000 middle-market companies — with over $1.4 tn of direct-lending debt — in the last 12 months through September.” 👇🏼 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

DAY 48: i've been running this AI / compute / macro map every day: nodiligence.substack.com -- google only stands behind anthropic's $19bn terawulf rent once the last hall under each lease is live, and it makes the building TPU-only for as long as it does. until then the build risk sits with terawulf and its lenders -- in three google-backed deals in 2025, at terawulf and cipher, the lenders lent exactly what google backstopped. the reported $3.5bn for justified is $8.7m per MW, right between them, even though the rent per MW is about 30% higher. my guess is the debt is sized to the building and the extra rent is terawulf's -- on my assumptions the rent covers the interest about 1.9 to 2.5 times, but pay the $3.5bn back over ten years and it covers interest plus principal only 0.9 to 1.2 times. that's what google's name is for, and for the first six years google can't pay the fee and walk away, it has to take over the lease -- supermicro made $1.59bn on $19.9bn of revenue and still used $434m of cash, because it paid suppliers in 13 days and collected in 36 while sales grew 80% on the quarter. astera labs keeps $72 of every $100 as gross profit, supermicro keeps $13, and supermicro funded the gap -- a year of B200 costs anything from $4.32 to $9.80 an hour depending on who you ask, and the only figure built from signed deals, a two-year one at $3.31, sits below all of them. that's why a lender wants google behind the rent

US tech giants’ off-balance-sheet debt from AI-related obligations nearly doubled in six months to about $3.2 trillion. Nikkei Asia via @soberlook thedailyshot.com/subscribe/ asia.nikkei.com/business/tec…

🇺🇸Markets just delivered a massive verdict on the midterms. The Dow surged 1569 points or 3% for its best day since Apr 2025 and its biggest post midterm single day gain since 1982. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.44%. Investors welcomed the reduced uncertainty and lower odds of extreme policy. The VIX volatility index sank almost 20% while bond yields fell and the dollar weakened. Oil prices plunged as traders priced in possible de escalation of the war with Iran. Brent crude fell nearly 8.7% to settle at $94.62 a barrel after Vance said the reason we lost is the war. Not every sector joined the rally. Shares tied to AI and data centers sold off on concerns that Democrat wins in states like Texas could bring new restrictions. Nvidia fell 3% while an AI infrastructure ETF dropped 9%. CoreWeave sank roughly 10%. Source: CNN / Writer: Bri

$APP is soaring more than 20% after hours following a blowout Q3 📈 Revenue jumped 55% to a record $2.19 billion, net income rose 72% to $1.44 billion, and the company ran an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin The rest of tonight's earnings tape is mostly red $QCOM is down 7% as handset chip revenue fell 26% to $5.14 billion, even with automotive up 89% to a record $1.99 billion $SNAP is down 11% after missing on revenue ($1.72B vs $1.73B) and daily users (495M vs 499M), and it plans to stop reporting daily users in 2027 $CAVA is down 13%, $ARM is down 1.5%, while $COHR and $ELF are up about 5% A day after the Dow's best day since April 2025, earnings are back in the driver's seat, and the bar for anything short of a clean beat is clearly high

Data centre backlash in America may end up exporting the AI boom. Google just pledged $15bn for data centres in Malaysia, where power and permits are easier. Expect more hyperscalers to shift the next phase of the buildout offshore rather than fight local planning boards.

$META debut euro deal, IPT -> final: 4Y: +140bps -> +108bps 6Y: +170 -> +140 8Y: +195 -> +165 12Y: +240 -> +208 18Y: +300 -> +268 38Y: +370 -> +338 ~EUR8.25bn across 6 tranches, ~30bps tighter across the curve, a day after a $15bn USD deal.

🦔Banks are on pace for a sixth straight record year of selling off loan risk through deals called significant risk transfers. A bank pays investors a high yield, often above 10%, to cover the first losses on a pool of loans, and that frees up room to lend more. Sales hit $28.2 billion through September. Investors want more for taking that risk this quarter, and the banks haven’t slowed down. My Take Banks pay a little more to keep the music going. Investors want a bigger cut because they’re nervous, but as long as banks can pass that cost along, they’ll do these deals again and again to clear room for more loans. The ECB asked who funds the buyers of these deals, and a lot of the answer is other banks. So banks lend money to the investors who take risk off the banks. Data center loans are still a small slice of this market, but they’re growing faster than almost anything else in it, which makes me think the AI buildout has gotten too big for banks to hold on their own books. They ship the risk downstream and hope those projects pay off before the first losses hit. Hedgie🤗