Madhukar (@sinhamadhukar) header
Madhukar (@sinhamadhukar) profile picture

🇮🇳 Pre-Seed & Seed Stage Investor

Bengaluru
Joined October 2009
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#Micro-transactions: What started as 1K paid transaction per month in January 21 is now 5K transactions per DAY. Something special happening at @askpankhuri
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Giving jr VCs the same respect as a GP is one of the best founder hacks Much of the success and ~$70m raised for my businesses are trickle effects of answering a jr VC @k17ubha and @zebulgar joining our board as a “principal” Merit not title is best filter
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India yearns for its Donald Trump !
The two most overvalued major listed businesses in the world are SpaceX and Tesla. The two most overvalued major unlisted businesses in the world are Anthropic and OpenAI. The two most vulnerable businesses to an India digital industrial policy are Meta and Google. This is the time to give a “scare” to US Big Tech. They are rather vulnerable given their eroded cash flows. DC, NYC and SF need to be told in no unclear terms: you don’t mess around with India.
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The nationalist way of looking at it Govt. keeps the business unviable via regulation/economics in the early years so that local players cant compete and once the distribution/habit is build drop regulation/economic barriers . Many examples over last 20-30 years
It is perfectly fine to oppose MDR on UPI. But if your argument is that it is a “tax on UPI” collected by the government or somehow part of a US agenda, please spend 2 mins understanding the MDR before politicizing it for the sake of it. (btw I too favor 0% MDR, but my reasons are purely economic :)
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Madhukar retweeted
The ARR multiple fallacy ARR multiple is not the right way to think about sub-20% growers. Simple framework: If you’re growing sub-20%, you get a 10-30x EBIDTA or FCF multiple. If you use this rubric, Miro is very fairly valued by Bending Spoons. Only 30%+ growers get the luxury of an ARR multiple. The reason is that 30% growth means you’re doubling in 3 years and so the revenue base will be 2x in 36 months, and the margin structure will look different at 2x scale. Cash flow today is a rounding error against that. So you value the trajectory, and ARR is the cleanest proxy for trajectory. At 15% growth, doubling takes 5 years. That's close enough to "never" that the market stops paying for the future and starts paying for the present. The present is earnings. If you're not producing them, you're not a growth company anymore. You're a bad value company. The mistake founders make is anchoring to the multiple they had at 40% growth and thinking the ARR multiple just compresses. It doesn't compress. It gets replaced. You cross 30% on the way down and the entire valuation framework switches out from under you. Which is why the worst place to be is 20-30% growth with no FCF. Growth investors won't pay for it. Value investors can't. You're priced by whoever is least excited,a really painful place to be.
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Madhukar retweeted
This is what happens when retail behaves like a product company, the leverage starts to kick in and CAC doesn't matter!
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Just sold on vingo! sold for 35k in vingo auction… there are only 683 pieces worldwide!
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Madhukar retweeted
Zudio is a great reminder that for middle India, price can be a stronger distribution lever than advertising. Save on CAC, operate on lean margins, and pass that value back to the customer.
Blows my mind that Zudio does zero ads, no digital store in today’s times and still scaled to ~1000 stores in 10 years. Such a great case study for analysts
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Madhukar retweeted
Travis Kalanick on VCs vs operators: "don't tell Michael Jordan how to dunk" "A super high bar for a VC is do no harm. There's a lot of reasons why that's hard for a VC. Everybody wants to make a mark on the world." "The way I think about it is, if an operator is good, they're a grandmaster of chess. And that grandmaster is playing 60-80 hours a week. He really knows this thing, knows many moves ahead, sees things other people don't see." "The VC is a chess enthusiast. They check in on the match once every three months. And they're trying to make a mark. 'Hey, why don't you do this or that?'" "Don't go to Jordan and tell him how to dunk. And definitely don't tell him how to dribble." "If you're not in the thing all the way, every day, 12-16 hours a day, it ain't a thing. But that's a hard thing for most people to take who aren't running sh*t." "VCs are glamorized, and they have a seat at the table." "he way to think about it is you're on the Serengeti. If an antelope limps, the lion will take it down, even if it's not hungry. Can't even f*cking help it. And that's the nature of most VCs. If you are on the Serengeti and limping, you will be eaten. And the lion doesn't even know why sometimes. It's just like, this is what I do."
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We closed single day today with more revenue than we did in entire month of January. Amazing efforts by full team and great customer love.
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Distribution in itself is not a moat but the right to build a distribution comes from PMF
Provocative thoughts on MVP and AI by @sajithpai. No disputing the fact that AI has made building easier but to posit that the value shifts to "visible" distribution is a leap too far. Distribution is a capability. Product-market fit is an outcome. The two are not interchangeable (or even comparable imo). Your product is not just code (AI or manually written) - it is the entire package and pipeline in how you solve a customer problem. Nail that and everything else will follow. Also, "visible distribution" is not the same as a durable GTM advantage. A founder with 100K followers and no retention will ultimately lose to the founder with 100 customers who cannot live without the product.
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And they don't need to charge directly to consumer which creates a massive advantage for them . So they can copy a succesfull agent motion ( remember stories, reels )
Meta @Meta is the sleeper favorite in the personal agent race. Instagram’s recommendation engine already knows what you will watch, buy, and crave before you do. Now point that profile at your whole life - what to read, do, eat, consume next. Everyone’s building agents. Meta already has the most sophisticated user model.
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8club is building the infra for real-world connection,not another app fighting for your attention on a feed. 200K+ users.10K+ hosts.8club is hiring a Tech Lead,Marketing Lead,Design Lead to build the next phase with them. If that's you, or you know who is, DM @ky_kunal_
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Madhukar retweeted
Sam Altman: "You can identify founders who have a chance at creating a $10 billion company. With practice." Then he shared the experiment that proved it. YC funded 20 teams of strong founders without ideas. All 20 failed. > real founders generate new ideas every week, not one big one > execution speed between meetings predicts success better than anything on paper > a founder improving fast over 2 months he's been right ~10/10 times on this signal > the core four: obsession, focus, frugality, love everyone screens for intelligence. almost nobody screens for slope. which one would you bet on?
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Madhukar retweeted
Even disconnected actions are somehow connected. They help you move forward. Whenever you get stuck, take action. Any action.
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For long we talked about runway now with AI we are in the age of vertical takeoffs
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Madhukar retweeted
India in 2024 owned a quarter of the ACs China did in 2007, at the same income.
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If you're a former founder who made investors money, you'll raise again (product optional) If you're a former founder who failed but raised, you'll raise again (just need a story) If you're a founder with Ivy League + big tech pedigree, you'll get a small single-digit investment in millions (no product needed) If you're a founder with a strong network through family or connections, you have a significant advantage (most people won't admit) If you're none of the above, you need a working product + real users + a great story (you'll still get a lower valuation though) Self-awareness about which tier you're in is the most underrated fundraising skill.
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