Was reminded of this by @bhorowitz on a recent @a16zpodcast - 1930 paper from Keynes forecasting the vast economic growth from technology and capital availability over the then-next 100 years. His forecasts on 4-8x standard of living improvements are spot on. gwern.net/doc/www/www.econ.y…
Where he was off was his forecast that all of our human needs would be satisfied such that we would have 15-hour workweeks. What Keynes underestimated is human ingenuity and the relative accretion of human desires over time that fuel the ongoing fire of innovation
Oct 24, 2026 · 3:45 PM UTC