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United States
Joined March 2009
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Slick!!
New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using all political science knowledge we could systematize, & our statistical methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit
We make these forecasts available (including all the input data, methods, and procedures), not only for their possible public interest, but because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong. We will make no changes to our post-primary forecasts (which do not use polls) but will update two other sets on this site incorporating poll results as new ones appear. Comments on the paper or forecasts are welcome!
Great follow!
#earlyvote evening update 9/28: at least 400,020 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…
The latest updates from @50plus1news (leans & tossups only). Total seat probabilities:
GOP holds w/:
52+ seats: 8.3%
51+ seats: 17.1%
50+ seats: 29.4%
Dem takeover w/:
51+ seats: 70.6%
52+ seats: 55.5%
53+ seats: 40.2%
54+ seats: 26.2%
55+ seats: 15.2%
56+ seats: 8.4%
Time for a fresh new look! Huge thanks to "The Nested Paintbrush" (on Facebook/Instagram) for designing these amazing new logo options for the page. 🎨
I need your help deciding: which design is your favorite? Check out the options in the poll and vote below! 👇
0%Classic Capitol
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50%Ballot Badge
0%Election Tracker
2 votes • Final results
Wow...here is the full excerpt from the gifted article and something I immediately wondered!
nytimes.com/2026/09/10/us/po…
“If I were a voter, I would be asking myself, why are you promising to do this in 2027? You control both houses now. Why not deliver on this promise now?” nytimes.com/2026/09/10/us/po…
𝙋𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙍𝙖𝙣𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨
After a lot of work, I finally completed my fact-check of Trump’s recent post where he placed himself as the greatest president of all time. 1/12
Direct Links to the Last 3 Surveys:
➠ 𝗔𝗣𝗦𝗔 (𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰): qzg.wvf.mybluehost.me/wp-con… (via presidentialgreatnessproject…)
➠ 𝗦𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗮 (𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮): sri.siena.edu/wp-content/upl…
➠ 𝗖-𝗦𝗣𝗔𝗡 (𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭): static.c-spanvideo.org/asset… (via c-span.org/presidentsurvey20…)
12/12