@specoolation
Account based inGermany
About this account
- Account based in
- Germany
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Joined February 2022
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specool retweeted
A parabolic bubble generally begins as a slingshot move out of a multi year cycle low. Everyone has to get on the wrong side of the market to create the fuel for a truly parabolic move.
The two recent examples are the tech bubble that began at the 4 year cycle low in 1998, and the oil bubble that started at the 3 year cycle low in 2007.
Stocks are a long way from completing a 4 year cycle low. I tend to think the most likely timing band for a crash of that magnitude is next year, possibly in the spring.
Gold's next 8 year cycle low isn't due until 2029-30 so I'm now more in the camp the precious metals bubble will come in 2031-33 timing band.
There is one sector that is coming out of a multi year cycle low right now. If we assume bubbles only begin as a slingshot move out of a major multi year correction then the only thing that has bubble potential over the next couple of years is bitcoin and crypto.
specool retweeted
🇪🇺Europe has zero of the world's 15 biggest refineries.
In a diesel crisis, that leaves it with no bargaining power.
🇮🇳India's Jamnagar (Reliance) leads at 1.36M b/d.
9 of the top 15 are in Asia and the Gulf, and 3 of those are in 🇰🇷South Korea.
🇺🇸US has 4.
🇻🇪Venezuela has 1.
🇳🇬Nigeria has 1 (Dangote).
Europe has none....
Refining capacity decides who exports diesel and jet fuel, and who has to buy them.
In the past few weeks, the exporters have used that power.
🇨🇳China paused fuel exports for October.
🇷🇺Russia's export ban is still in place.
🇺🇸Washington threatened a diesel export ban before the G7 stock release deal.
Europe has spent a decade closing refineries and making up the shortfall with imports, some of it from Jamnagar.
Since January, the EU has also banned fuel refined from Russian crude, which shrinks the pool of suppliers again.
Meanwhile Dangote is taking the West African gasoline market that European refiners used to supply.
Europe's refining gap has become a strategic weakness, much as gas dependence was in 2022.
Capacity isn't output: Paraguaná runs far below its 955k b/d, and Russian refinery runs are down 14%.
And the G7 release only covers about four months.
Should Europe pay to keep its refineries open as strategic assets, or accept depending on Asia, the Gulf and the US for diesel?
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
specool retweeted
The energy sector is just 3.5% of the S&P 500 and is trading at almost a 20% free cash flow yield...
Despite oil prices being heavily manipulated.
All the big oil companies saw earnings surge 100%+ YoY.
Meanwhile, the upside risk for oil is getting higher with each day Hormuz remains closed.
specool retweeted
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
What happened when $NYSI fell below -750 in the last 20 years
It can get more oversold, but...
specool retweeted
Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply rebounded:
Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28th.
This marks an over +210% increase from the ~4.5 million barrels per day low seen in March.
As a result, the 4-week average is up to 14 million barrels per day, the highest level in 6 months.
Persian Gulf crude oil exports have now recovered to ~80% of their pre-war levels.
This comes as the US military has increasingly secured the Strait of Hormuz and established a two-way shipping corridor along the coast of Oman, allowing oil convoys to resume through the waterway.
Meanwhile, refined fuel shipments, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, remain at only around 50% of pre-war levels, as these products are more expensive to transport than crude oil and some refineries in the Persian Gulf that were damaged during the early stages of the war have also yet to fully resume operations.
Oil flows are coming back, but the fuel market is still under intense pressure.
specool retweeted
🚨 Global food prices just hit their highest level in 4 years.
The UN's food price index jumped to 136 points in September, the highest since November 2022.
Sugar prices rose for the 3rd straight month, up 6.1%, and cereal prices jumped 5.1% as Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions choke off supply.
If this keeps up, economies depending on imported food and energy are in real danger.
specool retweeted
20% of S&P 500 stocks above the 50 day moving average also occurred in December 2024, 2 months before a major top. Out of the 2 cases, the current case is more similar to December 2024 than to March 2026 because of the minimal decline in SPX price.
nitter.cf/RyanDetrick/status/210…
specool retweeted
Everyone is bidding against each other for the physical oil that is still available.
The cost of shipping 2 million barrels from West Africa to China is going vertical.
Yesterday alone, it jumped 17.6% to $27.22 per barrel.
specool retweeted
Retail investors are rushing into Treasury ETFs:
Retail investors bought +$61 million of the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, on Wednesday, their largest daily purchase in at least 12 months.
This follows +$59 million on Tuesday and +$50 million on Monday, bringing the 3-day total to +$170 million, retail's largest 3-day purchase since at least September 2025.
Retail daily purchases of $TLT have now exceeded +$20 million for 6 consecutive trading sessions ending Wednesday.
Before this week, retail demand for $TLT had not surpassed +$50 million in any single trading day in 2026.
Meanwhile, $TLT fell -1.9% this week, bringing the year-to-date decline to -8.0%.
The fund is now down -55.0% from its 2020 peak, its largest drawdown on record.
Retail investors are trying to buy the dip in Treasuries.
specool retweeted
Wonder why I’ve been fixated on the Big Breadth Divergence lately?
I first started following the stock market in 1961. Right afterwards, in May 1962, it crashed.
Most web references call it the “Kennedy Slide” or “Flash Crash”. It wasn’t.
it was a full-fledged crash.
The market staged a series of increasingly-violent selling climaxes every two weeks. The Big One came on Monday, May 28. The S&P 500 plummeted 6.8%, which left it more than 20% below its March high. The tape was still printing trades 2½ hours after the market closed.
It was an indescribably-powerful emotional experience. Nothing on the web adequately captures it. The closest thing is jasonzweig.com/back-to-the-f…
And the crash was foreshadowed by a Big Breadth Divergence.
I simply can’t forget lessons like that from just after I started following the stock market.
Which is why that Big Breadth Divergence will stay with me as long as I live.
specool retweeted
I just found the CRAZIEST market statistic
Use this. It’s the roadmap to get rich.
19 FOR 19
Since 1950, the S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm year.
That’s a 100% WIN RATE
19 midterms.
19 times higher.
Average gain: ~15%.
21 FOR 21
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21 straight.
Average gain: +16.6%.
YEAR 3 = HISTORICALLY THE STRONGEST
The year after midterms has historically been the strongest year of the 4-year presidential cycle.
Average gain since 1950: ~18%.
So remember:
Market is
19/19 after midterm year
21/21 Positive returns
Year 3 = historically the strongest.
Now you know when to go heavy into the market again.
specool retweeted
Good Morning from #Germany, where all listed stocks combined are now worth just 52% of Nvidia, a fresh relative low, down from roughly 9 times in 2020. All German stocks combined are worth <$3tn, vs $5.64tn for Nvidia alone. Germany’s stock market is missing the AI dream.
specool retweeted
My friend @mark_ungewitter noted recently that the NYSE has posted the first requirement of a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT), i.e. a reading below 0.40 for a 10EMA of Adv/(Adv+Decl). To get a ZBT signal, that 10EMA next has to climb above 0.615 within 10 trading days (by Oct. 14). But even if it does not get there, just seeing the dip below 0.40 is a pretty good oversold indication.
specool retweeted
Market liquidity is falling RAPIDLY:
The G10 Excess Liquidity Indicator has dropped to its lowest level since early 2024.
This measures the gap between real M1 money supply growth and economic growth, and historically leads risk assets by around 3-6 months.
The move increasingly resembles the setup seen ahead of the 2022 bear market, when excess liquidity collapsed, and the S&P 500 subsequently followed with an over-20 % decline.
Today, the indicator is again rolling over aggressively, suggesting that liquidity conditions could become a significant headwind for equities over the coming months.
This is especially important as major central banks are now hiking rates, including the Fed, while global government bond yields are surging to levels not seen in decades.
If the historical relationship holds, the current decline in excess liquidity could leave equities increasingly vulnerable to any unfavorable news.
The 2022 liquidity playbook may be repeating.
Junk bonds have gone from under 13% to over 17% within 3 years for only the fourth time ever.
You're going to want to see when the other 3 events were.
[1/5]
specool retweeted
Many financial crisis start with a sell off in junk bonds (CCC-rating)
It could well have started imho ..
specool retweeted
Many people are saying we're in a bubble.
Here's what the 2000 and 2007 tops had in common. Different causes, same sequence:
1. Yields topped first
2. Stocks topped second
3. Commodities topped last
If something bigger is coming, this may be the order to watch.
