@statsjamiei
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Independent UK data analysis on politics, the economy & public services. Former Head of Health & Economic Statistics @ONS. Free Stat of the Nation newsletter ↓
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Joined January 2010
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Britain looks different when you follow the data.
I write Stat of the Nation: plain-English analysis of politics, the economy and public services - without the spin.
Subscribe free: statsjamie.co.uk/subscribe
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
🚨 DRIVERS ARE ALREADY CUTTING BACK
UK fuel sales fell 1.3% in August as prices rose sharply.
The ONS says motorists are partially filling their tanks as higher prices bite.
The oil shock is already squeezin household budgets and reducing demand.
We should NOT be increasing interest rates on top of this.
Higher rates won't produce more oil or bring down global energy prices.
They will just give households another bill to pay.
Higher fuel costs. Higher mortgage costs.
Don't hit families twice
🚨 DRIVERS ARE ALREADY CUTTING BACK
UK fuel sales fell 1.3% in August as prices rose sharply.
The ONS says motorists are partially filling their tanks as higher prices bite.
The oil shock is already squeezin household budgets and reducing demand.
We should NOT be increasing interest rates on top of this.
Higher rates won't produce more oil or bring down global energy prices.
They will just give households another bill to pay.
Higher fuel costs. Higher mortgage costs.
Don't hit families twice
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
🚨 WELSH NHS WAITING LISTS RISE AGAIN
4 months of a Plaid Cymru Government.
4 consecutive months of NHS waiting lists rising.
🔴 Nearly 710,000 treatment pathways waiting
🔴 More than 4,700 waiting over TWO YEARS
Plaid inherited a huge NHS backlog.
But they were elected promising change, and so far the numbers are moving in the wrong direction.
How long should they get before Wales expects to see improvement?
🚨 WELSH NHS WAITING LISTS RISE AGAIN
4 months of a Plaid Cymru Government.
4 consecutive months of NHS waiting lists rising.
🔴 Nearly 710,000 treatment pathways waiting
🔴 More than 4,700 waiting over TWO YEARS
Plaid inherited a huge NHS backlog.
But they were elected promising change, and so far the numbers are moving in the wrong direction.
How long should they get before Wales expects to see improvement?
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
If Reform voters in the Vale and Bridgend knew they were electing a separatist, they would’ve voted Conservative instead. I made a clear election pledge not to prop up Plaid because they want to break up Britain. Sarah’s behaviour has angered many constituents.
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
Britain now has around 216,000 fewer people on payrolls than in June 2024 - BEFORE THE ELECTION.
Payroll employment has fallen for 7 months in a row.
Vacancies: 702,000
Public sector employment: +33,000
Public sector pay growth: 6.3%
Private sector: 2.9%
You cannot keep growing the state unless the economy paying for it grows too.
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
Inflation, jobs, madness. This government isn’t fit for purpose. @statsjamie for The Mike Graham Show…
youtu.be/H1mKRrb_BaY?is=LJWq…
youtu.be/H1mKRrb_BaY?is=
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
Catch up with THRILLING THURSDAY here. @danny__kruger @yarwoodwilliam @zatzi @kelvmackenzie @willgeddes @politicscarla @statsjamie @DamianPudner AND Jonathan Bordell
youtube.com/live/3ayUUXeMiiY…
youtube.com/live/3ayUUXeMiiY…
Britain now has around 216,000 fewer people on payrolls than in June 2024 - BEFORE THE ELECTION.
Payroll employment has fallen for 7 months in a row.
Vacancies: 702,000
Public sector employment: +33,000
Public sector pay growth: 6.3%
Private sector: 2.9%
You cannot keep growing the state unless the economy paying for it grows too.
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
Britain looks different when you follow the data.
I write Stat of the Nation: plain-English analysis of politics, the economy and public services - without the spin.
Subscribe free: statsjamie.co.uk/subscribe
🚨 BRITAIN’S HOUSING SQUEEZE IS CHANGING
Average UK rent: £1,400 a month
Rents: +3.8% in a year
House prices: +1.4%
House price growth has now slowed for three months.
But rent growth is accelerating again.
For millions of younger people, the housing crisis isn’t just the price of buying a home.
It’s paying ever-higher rent while trying to save enough to buy one.
How are young people supposed to get on the housing ladder?
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
🚨 UK INFLATION RISES TO 3.1% — BUT LOOK AT WHAT’S DRIVING IT.
Core inflation: 2.6% — unchanged
Services inflation: 3.4% — unchanged
Food inflation: 1.3% — unchanged
Motor fuels: +23%
Petrol jumped 9.1p a litre in ONE MONTH. Diesel jumped 14.2p.
The biggest upward pressure came from transport, particularly fuel.
The Bank of England itself says monetary policy cannot influence energy prices. Its concern is whether the shock spreads into wider wages and prices.
Yet core and services inflation didn’t rise.
So if the Bank raises interest rates, the key question is: what evidence is there that this energy shock is becoming broader, persistent inflation?
Higher interest rates won’t make petrol cheaper.
🚨 UK INFLATION RISES TO 3.1% — BUT LOOK AT WHAT’S DRIVING IT.
Core inflation: 2.6% — unchanged
Services inflation: 3.4% — unchanged
Food inflation: 1.3% — unchanged
Motor fuels: +23%
Petrol jumped 9.1p a litre in ONE MONTH. Diesel jumped 14.2p.
The biggest upward pressure came from transport, particularly fuel.
The Bank of England itself says monetary policy cannot influence energy prices. Its concern is whether the shock spreads into wider wages and prices.
Yet core and services inflation didn’t rise.
So if the Bank raises interest rates, the key question is: what evidence is there that this energy shock is becoming broader, persistent inflation?
Higher interest rates won’t make petrol cheaper.
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
🚨 NEW - BRITAIN IS STILL LOSING JOBS
The UK has now recorded 7 consecutive monthly falls in payroll employment.
Since Labour came to office, and hit employers with its jobs tax, Britain has lost 216,000 payrolled jobs compared with June 2024.
30.44m → 30.23m
Retail, -138k
Hospitality, -103k
Manufacturing, -69k
Information & communication, -69k
I guess this is what Labour meant by “fixing the foundations.”
🚨 NEW - BRITAIN IS STILL LOSING JOBS
The UK has now recorded 7 consecutive monthly falls in payroll employment.
Since Labour came to office, and hit employers with its jobs tax, Britain has lost 216,000 payrolled jobs compared with June 2024.
30.44m → 30.23m
Retail, -138k
Hospitality, -103k
Manufacturing, -69k
Information & communication, -69k
I guess this is what Labour meant by “fixing the foundations.”
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
🚨 Oil above $107.
If that pushes inflation higher, the Bank of England may be tempted to raise interest rates.
But we’ve been here before.
The Bank responded to the last external inflation shock by pushing up borrowing costs to suppress spending across the economy.
But higher interest rates do not produce more oil.
They do not reopen pipelines.
They do not calm the Middle East.
And they do not suddenly stop people needing to drive to work.
So households get hit twice:
Higher energy costs first.
Higher mortgage and borrowing costs second.
We tried this before.
Doing it again because oil prices have risen would be bonkers.
Would you support another rate rise because the global oil price has gone up?
🚨 Oil above $107.
If that pushes inflation higher, the Bank of England may be tempted to raise interest rates.
But we’ve been here before.
The Bank responded to the last external inflation shock by pushing up borrowing costs to suppress spending across the economy.
But higher interest rates do not produce more oil.
They do not reopen pipelines.
They do not calm the Middle East.
And they do not suddenly stop people needing to drive to work.
So households get hit twice:
Higher energy costs first.
Higher mortgage and borrowing costs second.
We tried this before.
Doing it again because oil prices have risen would be bonkers.
Would you support another rate rise because the global oil price has gone up?
Jamie Jenkins retweeted
🚨 27 YEARS OF LABOUR. WALES FELL FURTHER BEHIND.
The latest PISA results put Wales bottom of the UK in maths, reading and science.
In 2006, the gap with England was 11–15 points.
Today, it is 36–40 points.
After nearly three decades of reform, why is the gap wider?
🚨 27 YEARS OF LABOUR. WALES FELL FURTHER BEHIND.
The latest PISA results put Wales bottom of the UK in maths, reading and science.
In 2006, the gap with England was 11–15 points.
Today, it is 36–40 points.
After nearly three decades of reform, why is the gap wider?