Exploring the market's runoff.
Joined September 2016
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SG retweeted
$HTZ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ณ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐: ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ, ๐.๐. ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง๐ฌ
โ
๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ
โข Revenue: $2.62B (+6% YoY)
โข GAAP EPS: $0.20 vs. $0.42 YoY
โข Adjusted EPS: $0.14 (flat YoY)
โข GAAP Net Income: $116M (-37% YoY)
โข Adjusted Net Income: $67M (+26% YoY)
โข Adjusted Corporate EBITDA: $233M (+15% YoY)
โข Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 9% vs. 8% YoY
โข Adjusted Free Cash Flow: -$38M vs. +$248M YoY
โข Liquidity: $946M
โ
๐ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ค๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ
โข Strongest quarterly revenue and adjusted corporate EBITDA in three years
โข Revenue per Day (RPD): $64.06 (+5% YoY), with U.S. core rental pricing up ~8%
โข Revenue per Unit (RPU): $1,639/month (+5% YoY)
โข Americas revenue: $2.05B (+7%), adjusted EBITDA +23% to $188M
โข International revenue: $572M (+1%), adjusted EBITDA -9% to $94M
โข Fleet utilization: 81% (flat YoY); average fleet size ~550K vehicles
โข Monthly vehicle depreciation: $285 (+2% YoY)
โข Adjusted operating costs per rental day rose 5%, reflecting higher maintenance and collision expenses
โข Total debt: $17.91B vs. $17.05B at FY25-end
โข Oro Mobility secured $80M in strategic investment; Hertz retains majority economic ownership
โข Oro surpassed 10M driver-operated miles and launched its first autonomous vehicle partnership in San Francisco
โข Hertz expanding franchise operations and third-party vehicle transportation services
โ
๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ
โWe delivered our strongest quarterly revenue and Adjusted Corporate EBITDA performance in three years, driven by continued revenue growth and margin expansion on flat capacity.โ โ CEO Gil West
SG retweeted
Oh, hi.
Don't mind me.
I just thought you should know, while you enjoy the face ripping rally today, that it is not without precedent.
In fact, the day after the 2018 Trump Midterm Election, SPX was up +2.1%!
Which was so bullish that the market then proceeded to do this:
SG retweeted
$HTZ - Should be a wild one today. Earnings tomorrow, Borrow out at IBKR/RH, and general market buying after the election.
I get a dozen of these scam ads every day. Do you really believe that grok, a leading frontier model, can't identify and block these? Nah. The spam is the business model at x.
Many say mainstream media screwed itself by becoming too editorial.
I think the problem is commercial. In an effort to the expense of internet platforms that barely offer enough viewer value for a free peak, they now are trying to charge subscription fees (standard nbc news fee below). And nearly every other design choice, from nonstop pop-up ads to excessive requests for notifications, is decidedly hostile to readers.
They are digging their own graves.
So you got an LLM to spin out a fancy DCF model for you, or maybe you hacked one together in Excel.
How do you account for changes in outstanding shares? Most use a linear assumption. That might work for a company that throws off steady FCF, has limited SBC, and consistently buys back shares. For these, share count often shrinks predictably.
But for money losing companies, its usually just a poorly reasoned throw-shit-at-the-wall guess. That's a problem. Dilution is the greatest threat to these names, and Wall Street's DCF models never give it serious contemplation.
Example: show me an analyst who modeled in 2024 that $SPCE would 7x its outstanding share count. There are none.
SG retweeted
Biggest heist in history.
Binance hot wallets were drained of $5.60B today across Ethereum, Bitcoin and Tron, 67 assets in total.
Tether and Circle have so far frozen $2.38B of it: $1.56B USDT ($1.18B on Ethereum, $379M on Tron) and $823M USDC.
Not frozen: 18,270 BTC ($1.45B), 197K ETH ($451M) and about $730M of USDT.
@cz_binance at 5:15 PM EST: "User funds are safe! It does look like a hack on Binance... as a shareholder, I expect all user funds will be fully covered."
