Building markets for AI infrastructure to make compute tradable. Founder: https://nitter.cf/t.co/akMlgG0SUC Co-Founder: https://nitter.cf/t.co/VjCTiCdnbt Married to @AshMcGovern
Bethesda, Maryland
Joined April 2011
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Updated county-level 2024 U.S. Presidential Election results here:
#election2024 #election2024results #ElectionResults
github.com/tonmcg/US_County_…
This is a fantastic visual showing some novel analysis.
Unsurprising that Jannick Sinner, who has some of the fewest double faults among active players, generally serves shallow and in the middle of the box on both sides.
Serve accuracy and spot serving have rightly gotten more attention this year but you can go deeper by looking individually at the four main spots (AD Wide, AD T, Deuce T, Deuce Wide) players are aiming for. There's a lot of information here but a few high level things:
1. Sinner is lethally accurate in all 4 spots. His four spots land within 5 cm of each other (46–51 cm from the line) and he's at or close to the top in all four zones
2. Fritz's accuracy on T serves on the AD side is incredible at 40cm avg distance from the T line (I've only seen Nakashima post tighter numbers at 39.7cm in same spot)
3. This is a perfect illustration of why Jodar has significant room for improvement as he matures, especially because the rest of his game is already great and serves are a closed skill and more improvable. As far as precedent for serve optimisation goes, for a player his height, he should have room to be both more aggressive, accurate and keep landing a high % of serves in play. A Jodar with a meaningfully higher number of free points on serve should scare the top of the game
4. Alcaraz gets shockingly few free points on his wide serve on the AD side (mentioned before), just 27.7% are unreturned in that spot (for context his biggest rival Sinner is just under 50%). He's 2nd last overall for unreturned just in front of De Minaur. He still wins a high % of 1st serve points because his +1 and rest of his game are so elite, but in certain matchups this is a remaining vulnerability (especially because that serve will face more break points than the deuce side)
5. The top 5 guys for placement, power, and risk (first serve in %) are all 6ft3-6ft6. Their height and technique mean they often don't have to trade-off much between power, accuracy, and serve in%. In comparison a player like Tiafoe has to gamble more, his best serve unreturned wise (47%) is also his riskiest (just 44% in)
6. Shelton's lefty T serve on the AD side is essentially unplayable (62% unreturned, 137mph avg speed, >60% in). Part of this is a second order effect of the threat of his lefty slider out wide on the AD side: you'll see returners having to hedge their positioning a bit wider than usual, leaving space open for this T serve instead. He goes 50% wide and 40% T (rest body) on these serves so opponents are kept guessing
7. The 4th image measures 'deviation' which is showing how much the ball moves from a straight path on 1st serves. This measures the 'swing' in serves basically, so a higher degree out wide on the deuce side would be a slice serve swinging away from the returner, away from the court. Alcaraz and Fritz both have really swingy deuce wide serves, and this is part of why Alcaraz's best performing serve by far unreturned wise (44%) is that wide serve on the deuce side
Tony McGovern retweeted
Serve accuracy and spot serving have rightly gotten more attention this year but you can go deeper by looking individually at the four main spots (AD Wide, AD T, Deuce T, Deuce Wide) players are aiming for. There's a lot of information here but a few high level things:
1. Sinner is lethally accurate in all 4 spots. His four spots land within 5 cm of each other (46–51 cm from the line) and he's at or close to the top in all four zones
2. Fritz's accuracy on T serves on the AD side is incredible at 40cm avg distance from the T line (I've only seen Nakashima post tighter numbers at 39.7cm in same spot)
3. This is a perfect illustration of why Jodar has significant room for improvement as he matures, especially because the rest of his game is already great and serves are a closed skill and more improvable. As far as precedent for serve optimisation goes, for a player his height, he should have room to be both more aggressive, accurate and keep landing a high % of serves in play. A Jodar with a meaningfully higher number of free points on serve should scare the top of the game
4. Alcaraz gets shockingly few free points on his wide serve on the AD side (mentioned before), just 27.7% are unreturned in that spot (for context his biggest rival Sinner is just under 50%). He's 2nd last overall for unreturned just in front of De Minaur. He still wins a high % of 1st serve points because his +1 and rest of his game are so elite, but in certain matchups this is a remaining vulnerability (especially because that serve will face more break points than the deuce side)
5. The top 5 guys for placement, power, and risk (first serve in %) are all 6ft3-6ft6. Their height and technique mean they often don't have to trade-off much between power, accuracy, and serve in%. In comparison a player like Tiafoe has to gamble more, his best serve unreturned wise (47%) is also his riskiest (just 44% in)
6. Shelton's lefty T serve on the AD side is essentially unplayable (62% unreturned, 137mph avg speed, >60% in). Part of this is a second order effect of the threat of his lefty slider out wide on the AD side: you'll see returners having to hedge their positioning a bit wider than usual, leaving space open for this T serve instead. He goes 50% wide and 40% T (rest body) on these serves so opponents are kept guessing
7. The 4th image measures 'deviation' which is showing how much the ball moves from a straight path on 1st serves. This measures the 'swing' in serves basically, so a higher degree out wide on the deuce side would be a slice serve swinging away from the returner, away from the court. Alcaraz and Fritz both have really swingy deuce wide serves, and this is part of why Alcaraz's best performing serve by far unreturned wise (44%) is that wide serve on the deuce side
What most oppose, I sense, is the tech industry ramrodding data centers into communities with very little input from them.
What I’ve heard from the newly-elected seems quite sensible: continue to build with guardrails, all the while giving locals a seat at the table.
The right-leaning, techno delusionists that dominate this bird app really REALLY lack any sense of perspective.
Why would Dems sacrifice tax revenue, blue collar jobs, and frankly control over a revolutionary new technology?
The hyperventilation over supposed data center stoppages is starting to look … sophomoric.
Tony McGovern retweeted
The right-leaning, techno delusionists that dominate this bird app really REALLY lack any sense of perspective.
Why would Dems sacrifice tax revenue, blue collar jobs, and frankly control over a revolutionary new technology?
The hyperventilation over supposed data center stoppages is starting to look … sophomoric.
Of course she does... It would be economically foolish to give up the greatest tax and job opportunity in human history!
The Democrats are going to be ALL IN on data centers, provided the AI industry is reasonable when it comes to taxes, water, noise, pollution and energy — which they are.
This is obvious to anyone with any basic knowledge of game theory or street smarts:
You take the money when it's clean, and it benefits your team.
The right-leaning, techno delusionists that dominate this bird app really REALLY lack any sense of perspective.
Why would Dems sacrifice tax revenue, blue collar jobs, and frankly control over a revolutionary new technology?
The hyperventilation over supposed data center stoppages is starting to look … sophomoric.
Of course she does... It would be economically foolish to give up the greatest tax and job opportunity in human history!
The Democrats are going to be ALL IN on data centers, provided the AI industry is reasonable when it comes to taxes, water, noise, pollution and energy — which they are.
This is obvious to anyone with any basic knowledge of game theory or street smarts:
You take the money when it's clean, and it benefits your team.
Tony McGovern retweeted
AI hardware has two prices: what it costs to own the box, and what it costs to rent an hour on it.
They don't always tell the same story.
Nov 12, 1pm ET — @friedmandave joins Michael San Miguel & @BrightsideBTC on how this market actually gets priced.
riverside.com/webinar/regist…
I just asked my team to implement this in all our GitHub repos. Huge upside to pinning every GitHub Action to a specific sha. No downside, as I understand.
Question is: why isn't this the default?
Hack vector we're seeing in almost every customer codebase: github actions that aren't pinned to specific versions.
Github actions are build steps that run in CI and in deploy workflows. There are third party actions that do all kinds of utility operations: list changed files, log in to Docker, deploy to github pages... etc. Everyone uses them.
The problem is that their behavior can change. This is code that runs in your CI that can change under you at any time. It isn't versioned by your own version control. A third party can change what these actions do whenever they want.
A lot of very widely used utilities are managed by solo devs on their personal github accounts: peaceiris/actions-gh-pages, dorny/paths-filter, appleboy/ssh-action.
If these github accounts get taken over, the attacker can run arbitrary code within your github runners: exfiltrate your code, steal whatever secrets are in CI, even inject code changes into deploys.
A lot of github workflows pin to a version, like dorny/paths-filter@v3. This is not good enough, because those version tags can be changed at any time to point to new commits. You need to pin to a specific sha, like dorny/paths-filter@0e4a8c6effa4802afeda77dc8d303f8176d7dfad.
This happened last year. Attackers compromised a popular github action. (A simple util that listed files changed in a PR.) They shipped a malicious version of the github action, and then they retroactively changed version tags like "v1.0.0" to point to that compromised code. They used this to steal secrets from 23,000 repos.
This is a really broad amplification vector that will take you very little effort to avoid upfront. I'm not sure if this category of vuln even has a name, but it's a ticking timebomb.
What we're doing for our own code:
1. Switch all github actions to pinned shas
2. Add a lint rule that makes sure all github workflows use pinned shas, not any other kind of version tag
Both of these are oneshot-able in your agent of choice.
Tony McGovern retweeted
1/ People in AI still seem to think GPUs can’t support a liquid futures market because most large, long-term compute contracts are bespoke.
This fundamentally misunderstands how commodities markets work. Plenty of mature commodities trade through customized physical contracts alongside standardized futures.
The key is having a benchmark that captures enough of the underlying price exposure to make hedging useful.
A quick thread on this…
I know just a tiny bit about structured notes and I couldn’t listen past the first 10 minutes
Recent Oddlots podcast on structured notes is a masterclass in someone trying to make a topic simple and instead making it infinitely more complicated. I started my career in this stuff and can barely follow.
@TheStalwart @tracyalloway
Tony McGovern retweeted
In tiefer Trauer nehmen wir Abschied von Herbert Blomstedt. Unser ehemaliger Gewandhauskapellmeister & Ehrendirigent ist heute, am 04.11.2026, im Alter von 99 Jahren in Göteborg verstorben. Wir verneigen uns in tiefer Dankbarkeit vor seinem Lebenswerk. Sie werden uns fehlen.
What happens when people have skin in the game: prediction markets are able to divine signal from the noise
Tony McGovern retweeted
It’s compute day at FIA Chicago. Index providers are up first at 1:30pm, exchanges offering compute futures to follow at 2:20pm. Compute Desk, Silicon Data, NativX, Ornn, Architect, CME, ICE, and Nodal all in one place. Expect new alpha to be dropped.
Tony McGovern retweeted
Introducing mlx-learn: GPU-accelerated classical machine learning for Apple silicon, powered by MLX and native Metal kernels. Logistic regression, nearest neighbors, and exact support vector classification, with a familiar scikit-learn API.
1/4
Securitized commercial mortgages come with physical addresses, occupancy rates, names of the occupants, whether their loans are current, and property appraisals.
No such mechanisms for GPUs exist today.
Seems inevitable to me that all the private credit lending to neoclouds for GPUs is going to want to securitize those loans, move risk off their balance sheet.
If I’m a buyer of securitized opps I’d want to know how the lenders verified that the GPUs they think secured their loans actually exist and are performant.
I suspect there are a lot of bad loans out there.
What’s striking about this scene is that John De Lancie’s father was the pre-eminent oboist of his generation, occupying the principal oboist position in the Philadelphia Orchestra for decades and then became director of the Curtis Institute of Music, arguably the most prestigious music conservatory in the world.
The younger John De Lancie undoubtedly grew up being surrounded with world class musicians.
'Deja Q' is a season 3 highlight of TNG of mine, Q is one of my favourite characters, and this episode is hilarious.
#StarTrek #TheNextGeneration #StarTrekTheNextGeneration #StarTrekTNG #Picard #Riker #Q #Worf #Geordi #DeannaTroi
(#TNG 3x13)
Holy shit
BREAKING: Binance has been hacked with wallets across the Ethereum, Bitcoin, and TRON networks seeing outflows of -$5.7 billion.
The hack includes $1.45 billion worth of Bitcoin and $875 million worth of ETH.
If confirmed, this would mark the biggest hack in crypto history.
We expect more information shortly.
Tony McGovern retweeted
I am mid-flight right now and I have just received the news that Sir Patrick Stewart has left us. Modern technology is both an impressive and an extremely cold thing. Internet databases have already begun referring to him in the past tense. “Sir Patrick Stewart was…” and such a surreal sight hangs heavy on my heart.
Patrick was a friend. Not a close one, mind you, but it was a friendship, an “acquaintanceship” perhaps, that spanned more than half my life.
Ann Cook Calhoun was an extremely well published and well known Shakespeare scholar who also happened to be a dear friend of my family. A better way of describing our relationship is that she became something of a fairy godmother to me, taking an early interest in my education, both financially and academically.
Ann and Patrick had been dear friends for many years (since their mutual involvements with the Royal Shakespeare Company) and she often told me that I reminded her of a young Patrick. Of course, I always thought the comment was her way of being encouraging. Once, when I was attending the graduate Acting program at Columbia University, Ann came to New York with my parents and took us all to see Patrick play Prospero in a Broadway production of “The Tempest”. That was the beginning of my association with Patrick and, in that one evening, I saw what an artist and a professional truly looked like.
Flash many years forward, and you can imagine our mutual surprise at finding ourselves in the very small club of Enterprise Captains. Just… I’m not sure there’s another word for it but “bonkers”. Every time we saw one another, Patrick and I couldn’t help but marvel at this strange serendipity and how Ann, God rest her soul, would have been over the moon at this kismet. While I always thought that Ann had just been doing me a favor, I eventually realized that she really had seen something in me that would, for whatever reason, prove a connection to her dearest old friend. God, I loved her.
Like I say, I didn’t know Patrick incredibly well, but I always knew him to be generous and gracious to a fault. Our first time appearing together as captains was at the network up-fronts in New York. I had arrived late because of my production schedule so I didn’t get to rehearse our bit on stage before we walked out to the lights and cue cards. Of course, I completely missed my mark and had to adjust which made the entire audience laugh. Patrick held his opening line, looked at me and made a gesture as if to say, “You good?” I nodded vigorously, which seemed to elicit another laugh and he nodded back as if to say, “Alright then.”
Patrick had presence, generosity and good grace to spare, and along with an incredible intellect, he brought those qualities not only to Jean Luc, but into a lived integrity that made him an exemplar for lost, young actors looking for a way. I’ll always love him for it. I’m just sorry that was our one and only moment on stage together. Even our turn together in “Dr Strange” was pieced together in post. Why? Because he was shooting Star Trek: Picard” and they couldn’t get him off the set. Jean Luc was if not his first love, his deepest.
Oh well. Perhaps in the next play, in the next theater, he’ll hold a small, nameless roll for me and I will carry that spear with delight.
Bravo, Patrick. I will miss you dearly. Until next time… Engage.
