O2 Strategies CEO; communications consultant; X-SecNav75 Chief of Staff; former NH state representative; RTs≠endorsements.
Asheville, N.C.
Joined June 2009
- Tweets16.1K
- Following1.3K
- Followers683
- Likes26.3K
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
Imagine the GOP and Fox reaction if this had happened under Obama or Biden.
But it happened under Trump, Rubio, and Hegseth.
Iran has done more damage to US military bases in the Middle East than commonly understood. A @WSJ examination finds 274 structures at 24 installations in seven countries were damaged during the first six months of the war. wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
As I’ve been saying since 2014, if you think defending Ukraine is expensive, Russia winning would be exponentially more so.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns a Russian victory in Ukraine could shatter global alliances, reshape the world economy, and force nations to question whether they can still rely on America. 🇺🇸
Asked what a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for the global economy, Dimon responded:
“It could be a potential disaster.
This is the first war in Europe where a free, democratic nation was invaded by 200,000 or 300,000 Russian soldiers under the threat of nuclear blackmail.
We’ve never had nuclear blackmail before.
You’re also teaching the whole world that maybe having nuclear weapons is a pretty good thing, because people will be afraid of you, and you can abuse a neighbor if you feel like it.
Russia would be on the border of NATO. Obviously, NATO is rearming right now.
But the other thing is, it’s affecting all alliances, military alliances and global economic alliances.
And the nexus of Iran, North Korea, and China makes it very hard, in my view, for the Chinese-American relationship.
China says they’re neutral, but they’re helping. We are clearly not neutral.
If Russia wins, you might see a lot of people deciding: Will America stand up for Europe? Can you rely on them? And if you can’t rely on them, what are you going to do?
That includes economically.
Every nation is going to say, what makes me secure? Energy, food, all the things I need.
I’m worried that if Russia wins, you could see the world enter a little bit of chaos as people realign alliances and economic relationships.”
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
Vivek has shown his true colors in this campaign and this closing ad from @amyactonoh goes in for the kill.
He will need to move out of Ohio after this election. Maybe out of the country.
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
It's a Friday, and so another week without a routine news briefing at the Pentagon has come to a close.
The Hegseth team has avoided briefing the American public there since *May 5.*
That'll be six months next week.
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
THE MOST INCOMPETENT WAR IN HISTORY: SARAH PAINE ON TRUMP’S IRAN DISASTER
Dr. Sarah Paine, a leading historian of great-power conflict and strategy, delivers a blunt verdict on the Iran war. She calls it one of the most incompetent wars in human history. The decision ignored basic principles of assessment, put maximum costs on America itself, and left permanent damage to the country’s power and alliances. This is not hindsight—it is the predictable result of hubris meeting reality.
THE CORE VERDICT
➡️ “The Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history.”
➡️ A competent war puts the costs on the enemy and minimizes them for yourself.
➡️ This one did the opposite.
THE COST CATASTROPHE
➡️ It trashed the US economy.
➡️ It blew the US alliance system.
➡️ Iran is hurting, but the collateral damage is taking down the world’s economy.
➡️ That transforms the United States from a partner into an annoyance—and for many, a primary adversary—because it is threatening their economies.
➡️ “That’s breathtakingly incompetent.”
THE STRATEGIC BLIND SPOT
➡️ Any serious assessment looks at the enemy’s strengths and your own weaknesses, plus everyone else who might intervene.
➡️ That was absent.
➡️ The first thing Iran would do is shut Hormuz. Narrow seas close in wartime. Ukraine already showed this with the Black Sea.
➡️ Shore artillery, mines, and other tools stop traffic. There is no mystery here.
➡️ The big naval base in Bahrain becomes unreachable. The fallback is Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away in the middle of nowhere. “That would be a mess.”
THE HUBRIS THAT MADE IT POSSIBLE
➡️ The people making the calls are historically unqualified for the job. That makes them profoundly dangerous.
➡️ Type A hubris assumes all decisions that matter happen in the United States.
➡️ Type B hubris assumes being good at one thing makes you good at everything.
➡️ Half-court tennis: you only watch your own side and never study the other team.
➡️ The Iranians understand Americans far better than Americans understand them.
THE UNFEASIBLE OBJECTIVE
➡️ Trying to “solve” Iran with 90 million people was never realistic.
➡️ Nazi Germany had roughly 80 million and required an occupation force of about 1.5 million just to hold it after the war—before counting everyone else.
➡️ The goal was unattainable. Pursuing it guarantees overextension and a bad ending.
➡️ The lesson the world takes is simple: get a nuke. The war incentivized proliferation.
➡️ This was a pivotal error. The choices that existed before are gone and will not return. “We will never be the trusted partner ever again. It’s done.”
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Iran war did not merely fail. It maximized American costs, destroyed trust with allies, and handed every rival a clearer reason to treat the United States as a threat to their own prosperity. Competence would have contained the problem at affordable cost. Hubris chose the opposite.
This is what permanent strategic damage looks like.
#IranWar #SarahPaine #StrategicIncompetence #HormuzDisaster #USHubris #AllianceCollapse #CatastrophicMistake
HT: YouTube The Diary Of A CEO
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
Pitch perfect response from Obama to this manufactured Cheesecake Factory outrage
OBAMA: The president wasn't even mad. About The Saddam Hussein comparison. That part didn't bother him. But he was very upset about The Cheesecake Factory. He took great umbrage. He said I didn't understand the work of the artisans in the White House.
They mobilized a whole of government response to that joke. Not to inflation, but to that joke.
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
This is thoughtful reporting from the front lines in Ukraine. War is shape-shifting in front of our eyes. The question is whether the US military can learn and apply in an accelerating adaptive way. And the best way to do that is to continue to support Ukraine. @thecipherbrief
Former U.S. Army General: We Have Much More To Learn From Ukraine
thecipherbrief.com/why-ameri…
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
It really is such a beautiful thing that we’ve had 22 years of being reminded that the Yankees are the only baseball team to ever blow a 3-0 series lead. Mentioned on endless broadcasts by now. Still hits every time.
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
98% of the refugees admitted to the U.S. under Trump have been white South Africans.
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
Since Trump’s election:
-Musk got $680 billion richer
-Musk became the 1st trillionaire
-SpaceX got $10 billion in federal contracts
-Tesla & SpaceX paid $0 in federal income taxes
Now, Musk’s spending $442 million to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
Gee, I wonder why?
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
Sick of creepy billionaires running our country through their political sock puppets? Pass the DISCLOSE Act and stop dark money.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
22years have passed but, still feels like we shocked the world yesterday! Cheers my friends. @RedSox
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
October 27th, 2004.
“Back to Foulke! Red Sox fans have longed to hear it: The Boston Red Sox are World Champions!” 22 years ago today, the Red Sox broke the Curse of the Bambino, winning their first World Series title in 86 years.
ONE WEEK BEFORE ELECTION DAY
A week to go, but what's the plan beyond next Tuesday? My latest Substack.
thomaspoppel.substack.com/p/…
Thomas P. Oppel retweeted
After Elon Musk posted on X saying he had throttled Ukraine’s use of Starlink after it was used for offensive attacks, House Armed Services Committee member Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) says the billionaire’s ability to wield that power is “beyond disturbing to me.”
“It cannot and should not be the case that a tech oligarch, a private citizen, who has that much control over our national security, who is unaccountable, who is unelected, with zero transparency, is making life and death decisions on the battlefield in systems that our service members and our partners and allies rely upon,” he adds.