⚡️The forty-year subsidy from cheap global capital is ending. The world spent decades moving toward lower yields because there was always another source of capital willing to own duration cheaply. Japan exported savings. China recycled surpluses. Central banks bought bonds. Inflation credibility improved. Globalization crushed goods inflation. Governments could issue more debt without immediately paying a brutal price for it. Now almost every part of that structure is reversing at once. Japan is the hinge. If Japanese government bonds can pay 3%+, then one of the largest pools of savings on Earth no longer needs to leave Japan searching for yield. That changes the global capital map. Money that once automatically leaked into Treasuries, European bonds, credit and other foreign assets can remain home. At the same time, governments everywhere need more capital. Defense. Energy. AI. Grid infrastructure. Industrial policy. Aging populations. Interest expense itself. And private industry wants enormous amounts of capital too because the AI buildout is becoming one of the largest investment booms in history. So the deepest equation is brutally simple: the demand for capital is exploding while the old sources of cheap duration demand are weakening. That is why yields are rising globally. This is larger than central-bank policy. The Fed can eventually cut. The Bank of England can eventually cut. The ECB can eventually cut. But if the structural demand for capital remains enormous and the supply of government debt keeps growing, long yields do not have to follow policy rates very far downward. That is the regime change. The world is moving from capital abundance toward capital competition. And that changes every asset. Real estate now has to compete with 5% sovereign yields. Private equity has to compete with them. Growth stocks have to compete with them. Infrastructure has to clear higher hurdle rates. Governments themselves have to compete against AI companies and energy companies for the same savings pool. That is the part people are underestimating. The sovereign is no longer the only giant borrower in the room. The state wants trillions. AI wants trillions. Energy wants trillions. Reindustrialization wants trillions. The bond market gets to set the price. That price is rising. And eventually the system reaches the contradiction we have been circling for weeks: governments cannot comfortably carry ever-larger debt loads at structurally high real rates, yet the private investment boom is strong enough to keep demand for capital elevated. Something has to give.