Author: The Investor's Mind, Framing Business Uncertainty | https://nitter.cf/t.co/B2IsdWeoo8 | https://nitter.cf/t.co/bDKgZLuYEH
Greener outside of London
Joined November 2016
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Friendly reminder: remember 2021.
Any pharma name, from Anthem Bio to Laurus Labs, can lose 20–30% in a week, and the market doesn’t send a calendar invite first.
I bought gold on the last Dhanteras. I bought it on Diwali too.
Why?
Because some things are better bought when they are considered auspicious than when they are considered cheap.
The market may call it superstition.
I call it optionality.
Lumpy. Volatile. Chaotic.
Exactly my kind of temple.
I've been worshipping at this altar since March 2004.
My knowledge of investing is admittedly too shallow. I merely read books.
For serious depth, please consult a SEBI "approved" advisor. They are "professionally" qualified to know things I am not qualified to know.
I prefer my ignorance unregulated ;)
Apparently, my tweets are too cryptic.
So I made one even I can understand and pinned it to my profile.
In the past, they ran all the way from Marathon, Greece, to Athens. Today, we have smart Athers to outsource the effort.
I’d rather run from Chowk to Aminabad to prove I am human.
Neuland’s Fractal Flywheel: Forty Years of Compounding Capability
antifragilethinking.substack…
Those who have Framing Business Uncertainty must read the second paragraph on page 314.
It may be worth revisiting today ;)
Investor’s Mind: The Crowd and the Moment
A hospital stock went nowhere for 2 years, yet its number of shareholders more than doubled. The Investor’s Mind (my second book) would view this as a potential example of herding: more investors are buying because more investors are buying, creating social validation without necessarily creating value.
More shareholders are evidence of participation, not evidence of correctness.
The second-order question is more revealing: if the shareholder base has doubled but the stock has not rerated, what exactly has the crowd discovered, and who is left to buy?
🏥
Unimech: From Craft to Scale
antifragilethinking.substack…
The best way to understand Unimech Aero may be to talk to everyone except Unimech Aero. Competitors. Suppliers. And, if possible, the end customer.
Congratulations on the 5-bagger. But be careful with what the 5-bagger is telling you.
What if none of the stocks you mentioned even doubles?
Forget the 5-bagger.
First, hindsight bias. Once the outcome is known, the path acquires an absurd clarity. What was uncertain yesterday becomes “obvious” today. The market is full of historians who were never forecasters ...
Second, silent evidence. We hear from the investor who stayed. We do not hear from the many who sold at 1.5x, 2x, 3x, after a drawdown, or simply moved on. Their absence is not evidence that they were wrong. It is evidence that the visible sample is selected.
My second book, The Investor’s Mind, has a chapter on this for a reason. Let me know in Jan'27 if you still can't find it ...
Third, X is not f(X).
The same thesis does not produce the same outcome. Time, entry price, position size, liquidity, temperament, management execution, competition, luck and valuation intervene between the thesis and the result. Two investors can read the same facts and experience entirely different distributions of outcomes.
A 5-bagger is an outcome, not a proof of foresight.
Respect the result. Study the process. Then ask the more uncomfortable question: how many similar decisions produced no 5-bagger, and where did those stories disappear? The unseen outcomes are usually where the real evidence quietly lives.
Join today. Your price is grandfathered for life.
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The best time to exit PI Industries?
NEVER ask the company management for molecules, pipeline, guidance, forecasts etc
When you meet them, simply watch their gestures, body language and choice of words. Don’t ask. Listen!
They are invariably biased. If you want to know the truth, ask their customers and suppliers. Better if you ask their competitors. That’s how you update your valuation model.
April 2024 public Spaces - I was loud and clear about FY27 👇🏾
Listen from 32:30, in the context of what has unfolded over the last 72 hours, what is happening today, and what lies ahead in FY28 and FY29.
I've been fortunate to build a strong network of people who are customers, and sometimes suppliers, of many CDMOs across China and India.
When you visit CPHI, don't waste your time asking the CDMOs what you should believe about their own businesses.
Talk to the innovators. Talk to customers. Talk to competitors.
Even Lonza and Thermo Fisher will often offer insights that an individual company may prefer not to share.
All you really need is a handful of trustworthy contacts inside the ecosystem.
If a company's customers and suppliers tell you X, while the company tells you Y, don't blindly choose either. Ask why.
But give extra weight to what the customers and suppliers told you. Their incentives are different, and they often have little reason to sell you the company's story.
EBITDA, P/S and the usual spreadsheet gymnastics are downstream.
Sometimes, what passes for “advisory” or “research” isn't advice or research at all. This is what bulletproof research looks like to me.
