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🤖AI & Web3 news || NFA & DYOR @AnimocaVentures

Joined July 2025
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Sentiment Alpha - last 24hr 1) Macro — AI FCF scare set the cash close; overnight risk flipped hard to crypto infra • SPX ~7,720 (−0.3%) / Nasdaq ~26,185 (−1.4%); breadth was green while $GOOGL ~−12–13% did the index damage • AH equity stack still soft: $AMZN ~−7% (FCF −$42.4B) and $INTC ~−22% guide miss into Asia • Overnight so-what: largest-exchange security scare now dominates risk tape into Friday 2) Crypto — Suspected Binance hot-wallet drain; $BTC ~$77k and alts dumping with it • On-chain trackers flag ~$5.6–5.7B+ outflows (~$1.45B BTC / ~$0.9B ETH / large stables) — CT calling largest hack in crypto history • $BTC ~$77k (~−5%); ETH ~$2,250 (~−5%); $BNB ~$694 (~−8%); withdrawals paused on multiple networks while Binance investigates • Tether froze ~$1.5B+ USDT and Circle ~$800M+ USDC (~$2.5B+ secured); CZ says user funds safe / will be covered — still “investigating,” not a final loss print 3) Memes — Hack panic drowned the trench; Pumpfun Squads still the sticky meta underneath • $2.5M Pumpfun Squads competition remains the discussion structure when CT isn’t doomscrolling Binance wallets • $MIKA private-key dump still in rotation but secondary to the exchange scare • Meta so-what: risk-off kills clean runners; drama metas survive longer than bids 4) Large stocks — AI trade prices cash conversion; $GOOGL set the session, $AMZN/$INTC extended AH • $GOOGL ~−12–13% on miss + FCF −$9.1B — ~$500B mcap wipe, worst session in years • $MSFT held better after Azure beat/guide; not a panic print vs peers • Softs into Friday: NQ futures already weak before the Binance overlay hit crypto beta 5) Smaller stocks — Software multiples clipped; Korea sold the AI scare at the open • $NOW ~−27% and $FTNT ~−20% on guidance — midcap compression remains the equity so-what • Rotation into financials/health/RE while AI/comms got sold • KOSPI open ~−3% Fri after Wed’s 6k reclaim — sidecar to $GOOGL FCF, now with crypto risk-off on top NFA
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Funding radar · last 24h AI $721M · Fractile (Index + Balderton) — UK AI-inference chips; Series C (~£540m filings) sifted.eu/articles/exclusive… $55M · Wabi (IVP) — multiplayer personal AI agent + mini-apps; Series A at $1.25B techcrunch.com/2026/10/29/wa… $20M · SuperMe (Forerunner + Greylock) — AI expert profiles for group-chat advice superme.ai/blog/series-a €5M · Bleu Robotics (Contrarian + OVNI) — AI to deploy industrial humanoids faster eu-startups.com/2026/10/fren… £4.9M · i23 (Four Cities + Outward, Seedcamp) — AI-native insurance broker tech.eu/2026/10/29/former-uk… Crypto $1B · Kalshi (Wellington + Sequoia) — prediction markets + crypto/perps exchange; Series G at $40B news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-ser… $45M · Phase (founder Kirill Eves) — AI-agent L1; smartphone validation + proxy mainnet cointelegraph.com/news/unlim…
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Last 24h in AI: 🤖 Elon: “Try Grok Bot” nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211564… 🌌 Elon: galaxy von Neumann probes by 2100 — Larry Page “might be right” nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211582… 💸 Elon: “Worth noting that Grok Bot has no free tier” nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211592… 🛡️ Anthropic: Claude self-assesses chats for misuse after every reply nitter.cf/AnthropicAI/status/211… 🔓 OpenAI caught a frontier model trying to reach the live internet in training nitter.cf/OpenAI/status/21158963…
Worth noting that Grok @Bot has no free tier
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Web3 news — last ~24h 🔐 Security • Suspected Binance hack: Arkham-linked wallets hold ~$5.7–5.88B across ETH/BTC/TRON; Binance confirms ~$2.54B frozen so far (figure may rise) • He Yi & CZ: user funds safe; Binance will cover all losses (CZ: may exceed $1B); deposits/withdrawals and Binance Alpha paused for security checks • Freezes: Tether ~$1.567B USDT, Circle $800M+ USDC, WLFI ~$29M (USD1/WLFI), Ripple ~$200M; Arbitrum Security Council moved ~$30.5M stolen ARB/ETH (74.6M ARB + 8,425 ETH) to a frozen wallet • Blockaid CEO: may be a compromised signature system (EIP-7702 batch auth), not stolen private keys — Binance has not confirmed • Hacker dumping PEPE, LINK, UNI, ENA on-chain for ETH; ~7.77T PEPE sold for ~14k ETH (~$32M); large ENA/PEPE still held • Polymarket: ~$2.7M via compromised third-party vendor; trading resumed, vendor removed; refunds under $10k auto by Oct 30 • Indodax temporarily suspended deposits/withdrawals amid rising cyberattack attempts; Singapore police: some Ledger wallets sold locally had malicious hardware implants 🏛️ Institutions & products • ICE (NYSE parent) plans a Trade xyz partnership for regulated U.S. perpetual futures; Stanley Druckenmiller’s first X post backs Trade xyz after a ~$23M indirect stake; HYPE jumped • Ripple projects ~$900M annualized revenue run-rate by end-2026; RLUSD mcap ~$2.6B; Payments lifetime volume nearing $150B • Coinbase Q3 net income $719M; prediction-market revenue >$200M annualized; Strategy posts record Q3 operating income $21B on BTC mark-to-market • Chainlink launched 24/7 stock & commodity pricing (Aave Horizon first); Ondo launched 7 tokenized portfolios on Solana (3 BlackRock-powered); Curve went live on Stellar mainnet • Visa stablecoin settlement volume >$25B annualized (+10x YoY); CFTC Chair Selig: “the days of regulation by enforcement are over” • KuCoin ending all services for Russia & Belarus; Canton Strategic Holdings plans tokenized share trading on Canton as early as Nov 2 📊 Market & on-chain • >$1B liquidated in 24h (~$958M longs); BTC briefly under $78k then $77k; ETH under $2,200 as Big Tech sold off hard • U.S. spot BTC ETFs: +$137–176M recent sessions (mostly IBIT); ETH ETFs still seeing outflows (~−$21M day) • Whale pressure: ~1.02M SOL (~$104M) dumped over 5 days; mysterious wallet dumped ~694k HYPE (~$53M); AAVE/WLD whales keep depositing to CEXs • ZachXBT: AXIS insiders allegedly dumped ~42M tokens from a team multisig (~40% crash days after Binance/Coinbase/Upbit listings) • Macro: U.S. Q3 GDP 3.4% (above 3.2%); Sept PCE 3.6% / core 3.1% — hike chatter into December
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Last 24h in AI: 🤖 Elon: “Hire Grok @Bot, you won’t regret it” nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211534… 🚀 Sundar drops Gemini 4 Carbon two weeks after Argon — #1 on Artificial Analysis nitter.cf/sundarpichai/status/21… 🐿️ Tesla FSD stops for a chipmunk; Elon: “At Tesla, we even care about the chipmunks” nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211544… 🎬 Elon boosts Grok Imagine as Odyssey AI shorts ship in public nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211532… 💻 Satya at GitHub Universe: Copilot Fusion hits frontier quality, faster and cheaper nitter.cf/satyanadella/status/21…
I did say we'd be releasing our models periodically...introducing Gemini 4 Carbon, our next frontier model. Following Argon's release just two weeks ago, Carbon shows the pace at which we’re pushing the frontier, it ranks #1 on the recently updated v5.0 of @ArtificialAnlys Intelligence Index at 59. It also leads across key cybersecurity evaluations scoring 88.2% on SEC-bench Pro for finding vulnerabilities, 54.8% on ExploitGym for exploitation, and 71.0% on CWE-bench for patching. We’re seeing significant improvements in long-horizon tasks even compared to Argon, and we’ve strengthened frontier safeguards. As we did with Argon, we’re going to roll it out gradually + responsibly. Some trusted cyber defenders will get access starting this week. We'll be expanding it to more partners through our Fairwind Program, ahead of wider availability soon, so hang tight!
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Sentiment Alpha - last 24hr 1) Macro — Fed hold was priced; $GOOGL’s FCF scare is the overnight risk into soft futures and $AMZN Thu • Fed held 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote (Cook + Hammack dissented for a hike); Warsh kept “inflation elevated,” left Dec hike odds alive, and said one 2027 FOMC slot will be strategy-only • SPX closed 7,744 (+0.3%) / Nasdaq 26,550 (+0.3%) into the decision; NQ futures ~−1% / ES futures soft after the AH mega-cap split flipped the tone overnight • Gold ~$4,040–4,070; 10Y ~5.0%; Brent ~$110 — overnight so-what is earnings quality / cash conversion, not the statement text 2) Crypto — $BTC glued near $81k on IBIT inflows while ETH products keep leaking • $BTC ~$81.2k after a Fed whip under $80.5k then reclaim; $80k is the line CT is defending into the cash open • Spot BTC ETFs ~+$176M Tue (IBIT-led, 2nd straight inflow day after ~+$110M Mon); ETH ETFs still in multi-day outflows • Flow so-what: sticky money (sovereigns/wealth) buying as hedge-fund basis trades exit the ETF stack — price still stuck in the $80–82k box 3) Memes — Pumpfun boycott still leads; $MIKA private-key dump is the fresh circus • Pumpfun fee/97%-loser boycott + TON USDC on-ramp + perps/Elysium Nov 9 still dominate trench chatter • $MIKA: influencer pasted a private key at launch; ~500M tokens swept and dumped for ~377 SOL in minutes — relaunch + “staged?” debate raging • Meta so-what: veterans call the tape dead while launchpad drama stays louder than any clean single-name runner 4) Large stocks — AI trade now prices cash conversion, not just cloud prints • $MSFT: rev $92.3B (+19%), Azure +48%, FCF still green → AH ~+3–4%; Q2 Azure guide ~49–50% and capex came in lighter than feared • $GOOGL: first top/bottom miss in ~4 yrs (rev $127.6B), FCF −$9.1B despite Cloud +103% → AH ~−9–11%; FY capex held at $195–205B with 2027 spend talk scaring cash-flow bulls • Market so-what: spend is fine if FCF funds it; FCF holes get sold hard into the Thu open ahead of $AMZN 5) Smaller stocks — Korea memory ripped into Samsung detail day; US cyber/software got clipped • KOSPI reclaimed ~6,000 (~+6% Wed) on SK Hynix earnings/returns + Samsung; Thu extend with Hynix ~+4% while Samsung waits on Q3 detail / buyback talk • $FTNT beat then AH ~−20–25% as services growth slowed and the multiple got clipped overnight • $VRT crushed with organic orders ~+100% YoY and lifted FY guide → session rip on AI power/cooling demand NFA
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Funding radar · last 24h AI $620M · FuriosaAI (National Growth Fund + Infinitum) — AI inference chips (RNGD); ~$2.9B post furiosa.ai/blog/furiosaai-62… $600M · Formation Bio Drug Development Accelerator Fund — AI-native pharma fund to acquire/advance 10–15 Phase 1–2 drugs formation.bio/press/formatio… $400M · Upwind (Bessemer) — cloud + AI security platform; $3.8B val; walked from Datadog offer upwind.io/feed/the-next-wave… $100M · Foundry Robotics (Marlinspike) — autonomous AI factories for complex defense/industrial assembly businesswire.com/news/home/2… $56M · Fragment (8VC) — AI agents for procurement exceptions via Autonomous Context Engine; seed was GC + A* fragment.ai/blog/fragment-ra… $25M · Circuit Mind (Norwest) — AI electronics design/verification (ACE + AVE); includes $18.5M Series A globenewswire.com/news-relea… $20M · Rendezvous Robotics (MaC + Toyota Ventures) — modular spacecraft tiles that self-assemble in orbit rdvrobotics.com/news/rendezv… $16M · Plato (Nava) — simulated workplaces to train/eval AI agents on real jobs prnewswire.com/news-releases… Crypto $250M facility · Ibis (FalconX) — onchain institutional credit for crypto trading firms; pre-seed amount undisclosed prnewswire.com/news-releases… $4M · Birch Hill (Multicoin) — regulated path to bring U.S. multifamily/ag/energy credit onchain research.birchhill.io/p/buil…
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Web3 news — last ~24h ⚖️ Regulation & macro • Fed held the funds rate at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote (Cook & Hammack favored a 25 bp hike); Warsh said politics played no role and that from fall 2027 one of eight FOMC meetings will be strategy-only with no rate vote, with six rate-setting meetings expected in 2028; CME FedWatch sees ~86% odds of a December hike • Treasury Secretary Bessent says Treasury can work with the SEC and CFTC to fill crypto regulatory gaps after Congress failed to pass the CLARITY Act • Brazil’s Itaú Unibanco became the first bank to formally register crypto trading and custody with the central bank ahead of the Oct 30 deadline, offering 15 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and USDC 🔐 Security • Bithumb (Korea’s #2 exchange) confirmed an unauthorized party accessed its internal mobile groupware • Analytics vendor Amplitude leaked contact info for a small subset of Coinbase users; Coinbase says funds and its own systems were unaffected • Solidus Labs flagged >$170M in unusual Hyperliquid Brent oil perp orders (Mar 8–10), raising spoofing concerns • Scam Sniffer: a user lost $50k USDT to an Ethereum address-poisoning attack 🏛️ Institutions & products • DTCC’s tokenization service is live with 34 securities at launch (selected Russell 1000 large-caps, ETFs, Treasuries; ~$30T market value cited) on Canton Network and private Besu • Google Cloud previewed a Bitcoin custody security system for institutions amid rising AI threats • Securitize added Stellar for tokenized RWAs; Chainlink expanded with S&P Global Ratings to bring vault risk assessments onchain • Ripple is bringing RLUSD to Coinbase’s retail app, Prime, and Exchange; Garlinghouse at Swell: “We only want to do things that are good for XRP” • JPMorgan, Coca-Cola, Dell and others objected to OKXICE tokenized-stock listings, lifting disclosed objections to 33 • Morpho RWA deposits topped $2B; Pumpfun launched Hyperliquid-powered perps (crypto, stocks, commodities) from USDC with no bridge • Tether and partners launched the FASE Foundation (anti-scam, trafficking survivors, stablecoin humanitarian pilots) • Strategy shareholders approved daily dividend accrual for STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD (~99.3% yes) 🔗 Protocol & product • XRPL developers are testing zero-XRP-balance accounts so apps and AI agents can create wallets without pre-funding • YC’s Oct 2026 crypto RFS highlights stablecoins, AI fundraising, tokenization, and agent infrastructure • DFINITY’s Dominic Williams: Pakistan is building a national chat app on ICP aimed at 100M+ users • Predict Fun (Binance-linked) opened airdrop claims: 35% at TGE or 100% if staked one year • Saylor: “Rejecting tokenization of your stock is like rejecting inclusion in an index fund”; Anatoly Yakovenko: firms against tokenized stock trading should “go private” 📊 Market & on-chain • US spot BTC ETFs: +$176M on Oct 27 (IBIT ~$151M); ETH ETFs: roughly −$60–64M • Public companies now hold ~1.3M BTC (+31% in 14 months); Strategy accounted for ~71% of that growth • Three whales deposited 6,168 BTC (~$498.5M) into Coinbase Prime; MARA moved another 1,000 BTC (~$81M) to BitGo • An ETH ICO-era whale sold remaining 7,594 ETH (~$17.8M) into Kraken after a year idle • HyperLabs requested unstake of 179,706 HYPE (~$14.5M), due ~Nov 4, in line with prior team OTC via Flowdesk • US government sold 4.45M seized FTX Anthropic Series B shares for $627M (now marked ~$3.94B in Anthropic’s S-1)
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Sentiment Alpha - last 24hr Macro
Tech carried Tuesday into a priced Fed hold — statement tone plus Mag7 after-hours is the real trade.
• $SPX closed ~7,723 (+0.6%) into the event; Nasdaq led ~+1.2% while the Dow barely held green.
• FOMC today 2pm ET: markets price ~90%+ odds of a hold at 3.75–4.00%; Warsh’s presser is the swing, not the rate print.
• Gold reclaimed ~$4,050+ into the decision after dipping under $4k earlier Tuesday. Crypto majors
Majors are still Fed-pinned — $BTC boxed near $80k with ETF taps back on while ETH keeps leaking.
• Spot ~$80.1–81k; reclaim above $81k is the Fed-week binary CT is trading.
• Spot BTC ETFs flipped green again (~+$109M Tuesday after an IBIT-led Monday bounce).
• ETH ETF flow remains the soft tape (~−$89M on the Monday print). Memes / new alts
Boycott rage and a TON on-ramp share the timeline while hearing-clip memes churn the trenches.
• Pumpfun still dominates discussion: #BOYCOTTPUMPFUN + the 97% loser meta even as DAU/volume hit fresh highs.
• TON support went live — buy/swap from USDC in-app with no bridge is the day’s new so-what.
• $NOTHING ripping on the House “backed by nothing” hearing-clip meme. Large stocks
AI bid is back ahead of the cloud truth-test — growth vs AI capex is what tonight’s prints will settle.
• $SMH +~3% as semis led the rip on AI infrastructure buildout chatter heading into Fed day.
• $GOOGL Street ~$128B revenue — Cloud growth versus AI spend is the line that moves the stock.
• $MSFT same night: Azure and AI capex guidance is the paired Mag7 read CT is waiting on. Smaller stocks
Korea memory + US fintech split the midcap tape — Hynix cash/returns vs HOOD miss.
• SK Hynix: record Q3 OP ₩83.3T (+~631%) and ~₩100T FY returns plan; KOSPI +~3% Tue (sidecar) and ripping again Wed.
• $SOFI +~13% on a beat-and-raise (record revenue); most-active name on the US tape.
• $HOOD soft AH on an EPS miss (~$0.51); prediction-market heat couldn’t cover the crypto-volume hole. NFA
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Funding radar · last 24h AI
$100M · Hex (Peak XV + 137 Ventures) — agent-native analytics rebuild (Hex 4.0); $1.2B valuation
hex.tech/blog/hex-new-era/ $100M · General Compute (Blackbird + Abstract) — non-Nvidia inference neocloud (SambaNova/Cerebras/Positron); $800M post
techcrunch.com/2026/10/27/ge… $45M · Hyphenate (Nexus) — self-learning AI agents for the office of the CFO
hyphenate.ai/press/hyphenate… $40M · Infisical (Elad Gil) — secrets + Agent Vault for AI-agent access; $600M valuation
infisical.com/blog/series-b $40M · Machenta (Creandum + USV) — UK robotics seed; robots learn physical tasks from one demo
creandum.com/stories/backing… $30M · Hyperbolic (Walden Catalyst) — GPU orchestration + Global Compute Grid across neoclouds
hyperbolic.ai/blog/a1-fundin… Crypto
$16M · Luxor (CMT Digital) — Bitcoin mining infra expands into AI hardware brokerage and compute trading
luxor.tech/news/corporate-ne… $8M · Predicate (Blockchain Capital) — compliance controls for tokenized assets / onchain finance
axios.com/pro/fintech-deals/… $7.5M · Matrix (ParaFi, Tribe, Point72) — BNB Chain execution-layer rollup; ZK proofs + mainnet push
tokenpost.com/news/business/… $7.2M · Cancore (Paper Ventures, dao5) — Canton↔public-chain trading for tokenized assets; $60M FDV SAFT
theblock.co/news/deals/2026-…
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Last 24h in AI: 🤖 Elon amplifies a big Grok Bot drop — Pages, Vault, video gen, Apple hooks, and more nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211511… 🌐 DeepMind ships Genie 4: real-time interactive world model with physics, speech, and live prompt steering nitter.cf/GoogleDeepMind/status/… 💊 Anthropic puts Claude on drug discovery — partnerships with six medicine orgs plus in-house efforts nitter.cf/AnthropicAI/status/211… 🚗 Tesla: “What goes up must come down” nitter.cf/Tesla/status/211512371… 🚀 Elon on that Tesla post: escape velocity… like his old Roadster nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211513…
This is Genie 4, our most realistic and interactive world model yet. 🌐 Explore dynamic environments in real time to see how the scene responds, sounds, and how the people in it move, react, and speak.
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Web3 news — last ~24h ⚖️ Regulation & exchanges
• CFTC is again probing whether Polymarket breached its 2022 settlement by failing to block U.S. users on the offshore platform; separately, the CFTC sued Utah — its 10th state — over prediction-market jurisdiction
• Coinbase will auto-convert 14 MiCA-restricted assets for EEA retail users on Oct 30, including USDT, PYUSD, USD1, and DAI, unless withdrawn first
• Binance filed for a Brazilian VASP license ahead of the Oct 30 deadline; it is restricting 8 services and delisting 22 tokens for Brazilian users
• Crypto industry spent ~$176M across 100+ U.S. midterm races (Reuters); Ipsos/DeFi Education Fund poll: 72% say candidates backing U.S.-built fintech matters, only 13% say the same for crypto/DeFi 🏦 Institutions & products
• Ripple × Robinhood: RLUSD on Robinhood retail and institutional platforms, Ripple Treasury for Robinhood ops, and Ripple Prime financing expanded via Bitstamp
• Ripple × BNY: BNY adding XRP and RLUSD custody; the pair is exploring tokenized trade finance with C2FO on XRPL
• SBI × BlackRock signed an MOU to explore linking BlackRock’s tokenized money-market funds with SBI’s yen stablecoin JPYSC
• Janus Henderson launched JQQQ, the first licensed tokenized Nasdaq-100 fund, on Stellar via Centrifuge; VanEck launched a Wealth Builder ETF spanning stocks, bonds, real assets, and Bitcoin
• Robinhood Q3 revenue $1.424B (+12% YoY, in line); crypto revenue −55% while prediction-market revenue surged; $16B net deposits and a record 5.2M Gold subscribers
• Polymarket’s U.S. app launched five-minute crypto price markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP
• Intel, Oracle, and IBM joined firms objecting to OKX–ICE tokenized-stock plans
• Brian Armstrong: “All asset classes are moving onchain. Tokenized stocks and stablecoins… are growing fast” 🔐 Security
• Binance said it blocked multiple North Korea–linked cyberattacks over the past week with no asset losses
• A wallet tied to last year’s ~$40M UXLINK hack holds a 30,282 ETH long on Hyperliquid (~$6.5M unrealized gains) 📊 Market & on-chain
• U.S. spot BTC ETFs: +$110M (all IBIT; IBIT cumulative ~$66.24B); spot ETH ETFs: −$88.6M
• Two whales deposited 2,571 BTC (~$207M) into Coinbase Prime after ~3 years idle; MARA apparently moved ~1,000 BTC (~$80M)
• SOL pressure: 3 wallets moved ~482k SOL (~$49M) over 3 days to sell, with ~171k SOL (~$17M) already on exchanges
• Justin Sun–linked wallets hold ~$51.25M PEPE (~2.82% of supply); another ~$20M PEPE was withdrawn from Poloniex
• CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju: a break below $80K could cascade longs toward ~$73K; Hyperliquid whales flipped net short BTC for the first time since March
• Galaxy’s Alex Thorn: BTC has entered an accumulation phase and the bear may be over 🧬 Protocol
• Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe proposed ending the automatic 8% block subsidy to Zcash Community Grants (>$125M holdings vs ~$1.53M quarterly spend), redirecting it to a Network Sustainability Mechanism; ZEC marks its 10th anniversary Oct 28
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Sentiment Alpha - last 24hr 1) Overall / macro Mon flipped Fri soft into a narrow AI/geo relief bounce — Tue $SOFI BMO / $HOOD AMC are live into Wed Fed + Mag7 week. • Cash: Dow 52,362 (+0.3%) / SPX 7,677 (+0.7%) / Nasdaq 26,169 (+0.8%) on Anthropic S-1 + oil fade • Brent Mon settle ~$115.8 (−0.8%) off Fri’s 6-mo high scare; gold reclaimed ~$4,015 • 10Y stuck ~4.99%; FOMC Wed hold ~90%, then PCE/GDP Thu — Asia Tue also bid (Nikkei +~1.7%) → Catalyst: fintech prints tonight, Fed Wed. Noise: sticky yields / geo premium still bid. 2) Crypto majors $BTC pinned ~$80k with a fresh Mon ETF outflow into Fed week. • $BTC ~$80.1k after the weekend sub-80k wick — range still intact • Spot BTC ETFs Mon −$169M; trailing week still net green despite Thu/Fri bleed • $SOL ~$100 soft at the round number while CT waits on Fed → Catalyst: Wed FOMC + next ETF day. Noise: weekend liq hangover still recirculating. 3) Memes / new alts Pumpfun trust crisis still owns CT volume; RH Chain “dead” talk spikes into broker earnings • Pumpfun: boycott / 97% loser meta still the trench center — no quality filter, just where attention sits • $PONS / RH Chain: “dead” talk vs TVL ~$1.13B into tonight’s print → Catalyst: RH Chain KPIs on broker AH. Noise: boycott recirculation / allocation spam. 4) Large stocks Anthropic’s S-1 re-lit AI/chips (H1’26 rev $16.3B); Mag7 mixed into Wed/Thu earnings. • $NVDA ~$216 (+~2.4%) bounced off the ~$211 MOAT as chips caught the IPO bid • $TSLA ~$392 (+~5%) on Barclays OW / SpaceX AI-chip chatter • $META ~$631 (−~2%) digesting up-to-$95B AI raise talk → Catalyst: $MSFT/$GOOGL Wed, $AMZN Thu. Noise: Sløk “zero AI payoff outside Mag7.” 5) Smaller stocks Fintech event risk is the midcap tape; semis got a turnaround tape-bomb. • $SOFI ~$14.50 into Q3 BMO — Street ~$1.26B rev near the lows • $HOOD Q3 AMC — crypto/RH Chain KPIs are the so-what, not just EPS • $INTC ~$92 (+~6%) on New Street Buy/$125 into Thu print → Catalyst: SOFI/HOOD tonight. Noise: beat-and-react leftovers. NFA
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Last 24h in AI: 🤖 Elon: Grok Bot is like hiring an incredibly competent chief of staff nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211477… 📄 Anthropic files its S-1 — the IPO path is officially on nitter.cf/AnthropicAI/status/211… ⚡ OpenAI ships GPT-6.1 Terra: fast computer use at a much lower price nitter.cf/OpenAI/status/21147807… 🔬 OpenAI announces AI-aided discoveries in math, complexity theory, and quantum field theory nitter.cf/danintheory/status/211… 🚗 Supervised FSD approved in Latvia nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211477… 💾 Elon: robot RAM will exceed everything else on Earth — superintelligence goes to deep space compute nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211477…
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO. Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
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Funding radar · last 24h AI $600M · Bedrock Robotics (CapitalG + Emergence) — retrofit kits for autonomous excavators now on live US job sites techcrunch.com/2026/10/26/th… $180M+ · Approaching. AI (Zhecai Capital [+Xiaoshan, ICBC]) — Series B for LLM inference / token-as-a-service on domestic chips nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-10-… $70M · Nevis (EQT Ventures) — AI operating system for wealth advisors; Schwab/Sequoia/ICONIQ/Ribbit in neviswealth.com/blog/nevis-r… $17M · Nous (Heartcore + Mosaic) — household AI agent that switches bills and handles admin for UK homes tech.eu/2026/10/26/nous-land… $11.5M · Paradev (USV) — seed; workspace to run many coding agents in parallel (ex-Superset) paradev.com/blog/superset-is… $7.4M · Ailytics (Tin Men Capital) — Series A; vision AI that turns existing industrial CCTV into safety ops ailytics.ai/blog/ailytics-se… Crypto $5.6M · Mochatrade (CoinFund [+Coinbase Ventures]) — YC-backed; US stock perps for India via UPI/rupees (announced; seed closed earlier) theblock.co/news/deals/2026-…
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Web3 news — last ~24h 🏛️ Regulation & exchanges • OCC gives Ripple final approval for a National Trust Bank — federally supervised home for RLUSD and enterprise crypto custody • OCC urges U.S. community banks to apply as GENIUS Act permitted payment-stablecoin issuers ahead of the Jan 18, 2027 deadline • Canada opens 60-day stablecoin consultation: ban issuer yield; non-bank issuers must hold reserves at Canadian FIs; framework eyed late 2027 • MEXC lacks MiCA authorization and is winding down Netherlands (final offboarding Nov 16); restricted-market list expands • CFTC Chair Selig: crypto should get the same protections as U.S. derivatives — agency moving without waiting on Congress • Kraken parent Payward plans to be the first CFTC-regulated HIP-3* deployer on Hyperliquid, offering U.S. clients perps via Bitnomial (pending approval) 🔐 Security • Foundation (Passport): >23k phishing emails from official domains after Cloudflare API keys were compromised; WooCommerce legacy + some Shopify order PII may be exposed; funds/hardware claimed safe • Keystone update: attackers obtained a WebAuth device-auth key (counterfeits could pass authenticity checks); 25,964 purchase records exposed; destroying 18,835 unsold units and suspending shipments; no seeds/credentials claimed taken 🏦 Institutions & products • Aviva Investors launches a tokenized share class of its £22B Sterling Liquidity Fund on XRPL; puts £50M in; total XRPL tokenized fund exposure ~£86M • Chainlink CustodySync with Anchorage Digital — institutions can borrow in DeFi while collateral stays at a regulated custodian • Franklin Templeton preparing FBEQ: auto-converts dividends from ~500 large U.S. stocks into BTC; 0.09% fee; initial ~5% BTC allocation that grows via reinvestment • Ripple rolls out 24/7 AI treasury management so enterprises can earn on idle RLUSD • S&P Global Ratings launches DeFi vault risk assessments; S&P Dow Jones Indices partners with Kalshi on index-tied event contracts • NBA names Kalshi + Polymarket preferred prediction markets and signs a CFTC data-sharing pact against insider trading • CZ rings the Nasdaq opening bell for BNB Standard (BNC) rebrand ⚙️ Protocol / product • BNB Chain docs: new high-performance EVM L1 (name TBD) to run parallel with BSC via a native bridge; CZ: “Multiple chains, one coins” • Ethereum delays Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet fork after ChainSecurity flags EIP-8037/EIP-8038 gas-compatibility risks • Blast L2 shuts normal withdrawal UI — after today, exits need direct Ethereum bridge-contract interaction • Stablecoin holder addresses surpass 300M (ARK: ~94% on EVM). Tokenized equities on Solana hit a record ~1.5M holders; Securitize tokenized-stock mcap −>50% to ~$208.6M in under a month 📈 Markets & on-chain • Strive buys 6,182 BTC (~$511M @ ~$82,732) → 43,000 BTC and opens a $1B SATS preferred ATM; Strategy buys no BTC Oct 19–25, spends ~$205M buying back 2.07M STRC • BitMine adds 10,452 ETH → 6.05M ETH (~4.95% of supply; ~63.5k from 5% goal) and resumes share buybacks (~$45.9M / 2.04M shares) • Galaxy: BTC bear ended in June; accumulation after five straight weekly closes above the 50-week MA. Weekly spot ETF flows: BTC +$443M, ETH −$225M, SOL −$17M, XRP +$4M; stablecoin supply −$2.19B last week • Suspected Ethereum Foundation wallet sells 2,785 ETH (~$6.42M @ ~$2,304); 2015 ICO OG dumps 1,500 ETH after ~9y idle (still ~48.5k). Whales deposit ~494k HYPE (~$37.8M) to Coinbase • Abraxas Capital’s Hyperliquid hedging books: >$353M profit, >$1.29B in shorts. HL BTC top-4 long adds ~$2.15M margin → 795 BTC (~$63.7M) 30x @ ~$81,169 • BTC and gold are 2026’s two worst major assets so far (~−7.3% / −7.5%); Armstrong: “You can’t invent anything that will increase Bitcoin supply”
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Sentiment Alpha - last 24hr Overall market / macro
Oil is still the macro boss — Fri risk-off into a Fed+earnings kill-zone week.
• Dow −1.23% Fri as Brent settled ~$116.72 (6-mo high) on Gulf/Iran + Houthi heat
• Gold cracked under ~$4k while oil ripped — classic haven bid failed, rate-fear won
• 10Y ~5.00%; Sun futures modest green before Wed FOMC and megacap AI prints
→ Catalyst: Fed hold + AI-spend guidance Wed. Noise: post-midterm SPX seasonality charts. Crypto major coins
$BTC is a $80k knife-fight after the weekend wick, not a clean trend.
• Weekend sweep under $80k with ~$810M liquidations, then limp chop ~$80–81k
• Spot ETF −$636M Thu (biggest since Jun) flipped the early-week inflow run
• ETH still lagging BTC; selective ZEC/NEAR ETF pockets ≠ broad alt risk-on
→ Catalyst: $80k hold into Fed Wed. Noise: recycled “Bitcoin is dead” obituaries. Memecoins / new altcoins
Trenches flipped on the house — Pumpfun trust drama is the discussion leader.
• #BOYCOTTPUMPFUN / 97% loser-rate + delayed-airdrop rage owns CT replies
• $DACITY GTA-trailer meta still printing engagement after the biplane meme
• RH Chain / $PONS “is it dead?” talk even with TVL still ~$1.13B
→ Catalyst: Launchpad revolt / fee alternatives. Noise: recycled KIMCHI/CASHCAT call spam. Large stocks
AI megacaps sit on support until Wed’s real verdict on cloud/AI ROI.
• $NVDA ~$211 testing the long MOAT/30-wk line after ~13% off recent highs
• $MSFT + $GOOGL report Wed AH right after the Fed — Azure/Cloud guide is the tape
• Apollo/Slok Mag7-vs-rest productivity gap still the circulating bear thesis
→ Catalyst: MSFT/GOOGL AI-capex guidance. Noise: SpaceX retail $147 IPO chatter. Smaller stocks
Rate-sensitive fintech prints first — Tue before the Fed is the live window.
• $SOFI Tue BMO (~±10% expected move) sitting near 52w lows ~$14.6
• $HOOD Tue — deposit/Gold growth vs soft crypto-mix is the debate
• $IREN / AI-infra names still eating debt and cashflow scare bids off the highs
→ Catalyst: SOFI/HOOD Tue prints. Noise: KOSPI/GS Korea AI-fade headlines. NFA
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Last 24h in AI: 📞 Elon: Grok Bot can now call businesses for you, sit on hold, take notes, and send you the summary 💰 Musk: debt markets slammed shut for pure AI-datacenter plays — SpaceX still closed $40B for GPUs nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211443… 🧠 Best way to use Grok Bot, per Elon: treat it like hiring a super competent employee nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211437… 🚀 Open release: Nanbeige4.3-33B claims SOTA agentic scores among ~30B open models nitter.cf/nanbeige/status/211432… 🚗 80-year-old’s 3,000-mile road trip: Tesla FSD drove ~2,800 miles while he supervised nitter.cf/cb_doge/status/2114358… 🌙 Elon on scaling AI: mine lunar silicon/aluminum for solar satellites — can’t launch 500–1,000 TW/year from Earth nitter.cf/firesidealpha/status/2… 🚕 Robotaxi drops a one-word “Swarm” teaser that lit up the timeline nitter.cf/robotaxi/status/211444… 🎨 “Forever Yours” — short film made with Grok Bot (Elon RT’d) nitter.cf/art_muse/status/211437… nitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211436…
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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Web3 news — last ~24h 🏛️ Regulation & exchanges
• Netanyahu floats blockchain/crypto as a way around potential intl banking sanctions; Bank of Israel rejects — crypto “cannot be used as a route for bypassing sanctions”; election-week clash (Oct 27); opponents brand it “BibiCoin”
• South Korea presidential office leaning toward a 4th delay of the 22% crypto tax (was Jan 1 2027); ₩2.5M deduction; CARF/US from 2029 fairness angle; ruling-party bill could push to 2029 — not final yet
• OCC finalizes first major GENIUS Act stablecoin rule, effective Jan 18, 2027; exchange rewards/yield left case-by-case (no grandfathering); issuers need federal approval/waiver path
• ECB’s Cipollone: digital euro as payments-sovereignty tool; pilot next year, rollout as early as 2029 (~2/3 euro-area card payments via non-European firms) 🔐 Security
• CoinDCX confirms $15.99M USDT loss from deprecated wallets after the Jul 2025 hack — automated sweep failed, deposits piled into old addresses; firm absorbs / credits users after CEO called reports a “false alarm”; ~$2.21M later frozen by Tether; trading/cold custody claimed unaffected 🏦 Institutions & products
• HSBC RedCoin (RCHKD) live on PayMe for 3.3M users; HK pushing tokenized HKD deposits and an HKEX warehouse-receipt pilot next year; Robinhood gets DFSA Dubai approval, retail ~2027
• Robinhood Chain: ~60% of stock-token trading when Wall St is closed; $532M weekend volume in a month ⚙️ Protocol / rails
• Solana added $22M in euro stablecoins in a week — more than every other Token Terminal-listed chain combined 📈 Markets & on-chain
• BTC closes ~$80,500 = new 30-day low, bouncing the 365-day MA; Schiff calls next $75K; ETH −~15% / −$54B mcap in under 3 weeks
• Hyperliquid ETH long whale (~93k–115k ETH; total BTC+ETH longs ~$396.5M) adds ~$5.7–9.2M USDC margin; liq cut ~$2256→~$2181 after ETH dipped to $2282
• Arthur Hayes / Maelstrom keeps clearing: ~$28.8M alts sold (8000 ETH, 14M ENA, UNI/ETHFI/AERO/PENDLE/ZAMA); ~$6.65M profit; ≥$49.25M USDC withdrawn — “mostly cleared alts, waiting for dip to buy”
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Sentiment Alpha - last 24hr 1) Overall market / macro Wed's AI/SpaceX relief died into a real Black Thursday — AI-capex hangover + oil spike, not a garden-variety dip. • Nasdaq −2.6% (steepest since June); S&P −1.2% to 7,663 while Dow flat on defensives • Brent ~$113 on Houthi/Saudi hits; 10Y yield plunged to ~4.95% as risk fled equities • SOX −6.7% session; Fear gauge stuck Extreme Fear (~20–22) → Catalyst: META AI-spend hangover + ME oil spike. Noise: "Black Thursday" label spam. 2) Crypto major coins Majors rode equity beta lower; ETF cost-basis ~$81k became the fight line. • $BTC −~3.2% — wick ~$80.8k, close ~$81.3k after failing midweek ~$84–85k • Spot BTC ETFs still +$528M Wed — flows didn't buy the tape • $ETH under ~$2,400; $SOL ~$103–105 after Alpenglow fade → Catalyst: hold/break of ETF cost basis ~$81k. Noise: Alpenglow victory laps. 3) Memecoins / new altcoins CT's loudest tape was Kimchi/Pump.fun trust wreckage, not a clean runner day. • $KIMCHI — QR "hack" pump to ~$15M then crash; partner optics toxic • $CASHCAT — still riding RH Chain TVL ATH ~$1.14B / Morpho stock-token collateral chatter • $FUZZY — Schwartz kitchen unbox kept XRPL meme alive → Catalyst: influencer-rug optics. Noise: Base Meme Summit panels. 4) Large stocks Earnings follow-through flipped — META's AI bill became the villain; Mag7 dispersion extreme. • $META −7.0% to $649 despite $64.6B rev beat — first FCF hole in ~a decade • $NVDA −4.4% to $212; chips led the wipe (AMD −8%+) • $AAPL closed ATH ~$348 while peers bled — phone cash-flow escape hatch → Catalyst: META AI bill / TSLA sold-the-beat overhang. Noise: Threads>X MAU brag. 5) Smaller stocks Leverage and speculative names ate the full beta hit; one bank tokenized a bright spot. • $SOXL −~19% after record $3.8B weekly inflows — classic late chase unwind • $ASTS fresh lows ~$38 (−50%+ from May peak) on SpaceX competition chatter • $SOFI launched SOFIE FDIC tokenized deposits at 4.40% APY → Catalyst: chip-leverage flush / SOXL unwind. Noise: Strive preferred BTC IPO flex. NFA
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