I build AI capabilities before they’re table stakes...
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Joined December 2018
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I decoded a viral explainer formula thecognitiveshift.com/public…
You can test it for yourself at the end, or just jump straight to the fun stuff (and read how it was done after) thecognitiveshift.com/traini…
Getting somewhere. Baby steps.
But tested outputs in FB groups and got good engagement on rawest form possible (text). Will be interesting to cook more with video and animations.
recently i have seen a few people fall into the trap of thinking they have an eval, try it in production, and give up on the project... all without training their judge 🤦♂️ .
figured I'd show people how (and build a tool for it *Grader*).
here's an example of building an eval for a funny comment bot you can run on a 27b local model in your basement... thecognitiveshift.com/public…
join bro and have a bit of fun by testing it here thecognitiveshift.com/traini…
if you want to learn how to make evals/benchmarks, make sure to signup to get notified when the course pre-order drops.
thecognitiveshift.com/traini…
msrp is $999 (but limited # of pre-orders will get it for $299)
I trained an AI judge on my sense of humour, then let an optimiser write comments to please it.
thecognitiveshift.com/public…
Nothing ground breaking. But since I'm building a tool (Grader) to build and test evals, I needed something quick to start with.
Now comes the fun (harder) eval... a remix on VendBench2.
Using my eval builder to make a funny reply agent.
Just a heads up it will be kinda unhinged.
Will be the intro example for the course I'm making on evals before moving to one I'm legit excited about.
thecognitiveshift.com/traini…
PS: course will come with access to a tool I'm building called Grader. Already finding it useful.
Ignore the contents of these, but just want to illustrate.
I have never seen anything pokemon related on X. Posted this thread and on next refresh I saw 5 in a row (if I ignore the ad in between).
This is what happens within the child toy category where companies roll the Pokemon playbook.
1. sponser YTer (educational channel aimed at kids)
2. sponsored TTer unboxing reaction (aimed at parents)
3. add supply in brick and mortar
What happens?
Kids see in store and react.
Parents search on Tiktok.
Algorithms boost mindshare.
Demand + supply shortage = price spike.
Price spike = WOM and headlines
= next time you make more of the stuff and still have buyers.
They have it down to a science.
And Pokemon was the spear. Wild.
I see this and think it’s definitely a top 🤣 nitter.cf/lugiaconsulting/status…
This is the “we’re getting an ETF and institutional money is coming when BTC first hit 20k” moment.
Wait till people start burning cards on lives they lost so much money. Then consider DCA if you like what the adoption data shows in younger demographics.
graded pokémon just crossed $13.17b in total market cap.
sounds huge. look at what it’s sitting next to:
real estate ~$390t
bonds ~$140t
global stocks ~$120t
gold ~$30t
crypto ~$2.8t
art + collectibles ~$1.7t
now the thought experiment. not 1%. not 0.1%. just 0.01% of each rotating in:
~$39b from real estate
~$14b from bonds
~$12b from stocks
~$3b from gold
~$0.28b from crypto
~$0.17b from art
that’s ~$68b = 5x the entire graded pokémon market as it stands today. from one hundredth of one percent.
the capital hasn’t shown up yet. dyor
Anyhow, to summarise where I landed strategy wise.
- Keep most of the money in cash for now.
- Buy Pokémon in three or four instalments over the next 6 to 18 months. Only into floods of sets 12 to 24 months old. Hold for +5 years.
- Buy Magic only opportunistically.
- Put a small slice into one or two new games (1-2%)
- Watch carefully: search interest falling for two quarters in a row and assess carefully print run choices and launch prices for sets.
And if we do see much deeper corrections than we have the last 90 days. Look for things that went down because they're correlated (but shouldn't be).
Ah. Numbers are good enough. I was just hunting for the collector box when the price in the chart is from the Spiderman play set.
Looks like Pokemon was the spear of the market. Have some other charts that I can't find that showed how 2025 was pokemon season. 2026 was MTG.
What I don't know is if the faster than avg growth in Universes Beyond initial sets... is signal of a cycle one unicorn. Vs greed got to the point where people are just buying any cardboard card game now just incase. Or both.
Also, need to double check the numbers because I tried to buy Spiderman sets last night and could not find anything close to $121
