💊 • Wx Forecaster since ‘08 ❄️ • NCSU Alum 🐺 #GoPack • Diver 🤿
Raleigh, NC
Joined June 2009
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More: Digging into time periods and SSW events producing more frequent snow events:
Red: more snow events 1958-1999
Blue: more snow events 2000-2025
Every winter, SSW gets sold as a possible snow trigger. I checked all 41 since 1958 against 12,430 stations. First 6 weeks vs. matched winters without one: some regions got more snow days, others fewer. The overall average: +0.52%. 🧵
We arrive at the same answer when the model only learns from earlier winters. That doesn't prove SSW has no influence, but it isn't a reliable snow signal on its own.
See the snow signals on snow.wall.cloud - as I find more that help forecast snow, they’re added here.
“Can't imagine why anyone would even look at the GFS on a daily basis”
El Niño snowfall patterns 1950-2026.
I anticipate a lot of “winter cancel” opinions after Christmas, but the party will just be getting started!
History says interior Northeast first, then the coast follows late season.
North Carolina measurable snow occurrence during El Nino winters based on teleconnection phase (-/+)
These maps are available for 48 states on Snow Signal.
Snow Signal is now live for 105 CWA offices! 121.7 million rows of data analyzed. More to come soon! Snow.wall.cloud
The issue I have is that CPC winter outlooks are not probabilistic temperature forecasts. CPC uses tercile bins… so evaluated based on the observed terciles, you get this.
Snow Signal is now live for 105 CWA offices! 121.7 million rows of data analyzed. More to come soon! Snow.wall.cloud
Though I didn't know Jared personally, he was often being the only one to like/RT my posts when no one else would. I'd like to think that was a sign of his character, as I see the tributes flow in. Thoughts with the CHSwx community.
This one hurts. A dear friend in life and an excellent colleague in our weather industry Jared Smith (@chswx Charleston Weather) unexpectedly passed away yesterday due to extended complications from his heart surgery last Thursday. It was a planned surgery that was to help avoid further complications and get him where he needed to be, but it turned for the worst and many of us are surprisingly upset and very sad. Just contacted him last Wed night before the surgery and he was very positive and optimistic going into it - even said he wanted to have another get-together after the whole thing was over. Made sure to give him some positive words and wish him well. Glad I did - because I didn't know it would be the last conversation I would have with him. 😥
Jared was a one-of-a-kind person who was both genuine and generous with his time. If you knew him, he was extremely talented in all areas of his careers. I met and worked with him on the @CarolinaWxGroup for many years and we kept in good touch for all things weather here locally. Jared had just gotten married to his wife Lily Wald and was very happy. There are a lot of sad folks today wondering how and why with the complications, but let's focus on the person he was and celebrate his time with us - he touched a lot of lives with his personality and his incredible ability to share his knowledge. Truly a light that shone brightly - gone too soon. Keep him, his family and loved ones in your thoughts and say a prayer for their well being through this hard time.
Take care and hug your peeps today - make those calls you've been meaning to make that time has washed over. It's worth it.
Pics below include his wife Lily and at a College of Charleston meteorology event with Dr. Marshall Shepherd, TV Personality, Professor, Author as speaker and Meteorologist Trevor Gibbs, who among the first graduates of the CofC meteorology program. Jared was super stoked to be there as you can see. Great memory!
Want more snow in Central NC?
Watch where the cold high-pressure system sets up.
A stronger high out west beats a weaker high (CAD included) to the north!
Likely going to be a confirmed tornado south of 64 near Poole Rd. Debris ball spike on CC at 12:05pm ET.
Updates:
• added Historic Hurricane Hunter planes, including the Dragon Lady
• added Typhoon Koguma
• Qualifiers for leaderboard: Custom name, Manual flights only - using Nav Assist button at any point disqualifies.