drew (@werd_3989) header
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Probably listening to the Grateful Dead

NYC / Denver
Joined June 2025
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Or maybe rural white voters stay home? Trump spent a decade promising them he’d revitalize their towns & hoodwinked them with culture wars He’s not done a thing for them & they’re hardest hit by Trump’s inflation from tariffs & gas prices Eventually the bill comes due 🤷‍♂️
I understand the NYT’s decision to release the polls (they cost a LOT of money), but this caveat cannot be overstated. Obviously the GOP is behind *across* the polling, but if the under sampling bias of white, disproportionately rural/GOP voters is systemic, then these polls are indeed inflating Dem performance and these races are much narrower than the CW
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Bookmarking!
I nailed all my election predictions in 2024, not so much in 2022. Here are my 2026 calls with a reminder that all of you should get out and vote. Byron Donalds wins Florida Gov comfortably. Senate: Ken Paxton wins Texas, Mike Rogers wins Michigan, Jon Husted wins Ohio, Ashley Hinson wins Iowa, Susan Collins wins Maine, the real Dan Sullivan wins Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina & Nebraska aren’t close, Republicans win senate races easily in those states. Polls are badly biased against Republicans for the 16th out of the past 17 election cycles.
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drew retweeted
Asking my AI teacher how to spell seventeen
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IMO it’s really easy to see why GOP will over perform the polls and the polls simply aren’t capturing GOP enthusiasm and persuasion among a huge chunk of voters imo
Trump: I don't think about Americans' financial situation
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I can’t believe his advisors let him do this the day before Election Day
Trump: That's not grass, that's algae
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Only issue that matters this year is prices w/ corruption a distant 2nd Trump solely made prices worse w/ tariffs + the war, while insider trading off in broad daylight Rural voters are most hurt by prices + Latinos pissed over ICE Trump spent the year raving about a ballroom
I get the temptation to dismiss all polls, but - Trump is obviously massively unpopular - Gas is expensive - It's a midterm, with an R white house - Other stuff Even poll blind, I don't see why you wouldn't logically default to blue tsunami
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🙋‍♂️
Deep down, I can't imagine anyone really believes Collins is going to lose, or that Texas will elect a statewide Dem. I mean, either might happen. But I doubt anyone *really* believes it.
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Claude slop lol
Replying to @JRKennellyGOP
Bottom line for FL GOV race: The early electorate looks like a Democratic turnout year, not 2022. If the 1.1M hold-out Republicans show: @ByronDonalds R +0.8 (I had R +0.9 Thursday). If they come in soft: @DavidJollyFL. Tuesday decides it. Lock in. 🗳🇺🇸
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Just the perfect example of why Ben Shapiro is a lowbrow political hack whose career is based around reacting to obscure TikTok videos and debating college kids for clicks
Barack Obama is in Michigan. Kamala Harris is in New Hampshire. If Democrats are really running away with this election, what are their top surrogates doing in states they’re already supposed to win? youtube.com/watch?v=wtqPPyy6…
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The poorest Americans lose and the richest gain under Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” per the Congressional Budget Office. Average yearly change in household resources, 2026–2034: Poorest 10%: -$1,214 (about 3% of income) Richest 10%: +$13,622 (about 2.7% of income)
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Argument for GOP: they’ve over performed polls before Argument against: inflation is the only issue (with a dash of corruption) & Trump added tariffs + started a dumb war that jacked up prices while he insider traded & has given no reason to vote GOP
Argument for Democrats winning the senate: every poll, every fundamental, every sentiment Arguments for Republicans winning the senate: do you not remember that last 7 senate elections
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I thought we were in the golden age and making so much money from high oil prices we were filthy rich?
Trump: We can't take care of daycare. We're fighting wars. It's not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these things.
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This man is conjuring up insults other politicians have never even considered.
Ossoff: "It sounds like the West Wing staff right now is mostly doing child care. They're having to coddle the toddler president who is staring at imminent rebuke of historic magnitude."
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The Jonestown analogy is so good. People sipping the poison right in front of him. Give this man a Pulitzer.
Fox: Why are you here this morning? Trump rally attendee: Well, in the late 70s, I was a little too young to go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here. There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front.
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drew retweeted
10x more antisemitic than anything Hasan Piker has said and you’re not going to hear a blip from the cable pundits
(Meidaite) Republican Senator Says Non-Christians Are Unfit for Senate: "Should Be Nowhere Near Washington" Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) said on Wednesday night that anyone who does not believe that Jesus died for their salvation is unfit to serve in the Senate and “should be nowhere near Washington.” mediaite.com/media/tv/republ…
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the smearing of El-Sayed, a patriot, including with false accusations of terrorism and massive guilt by association, is one of the ugliest things i have ever seen in politics
Tim Scott on Hannity's show lies that El-Sayed's parents "funded Osama bin Laden"
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I’ve waited years to hear this Dems spent a decade attacking Trump for racism & authoritarianism, which fed image Trump wanted as a strongman/not PC “tell it like it is” type Mocking him for being a pathetic loser with the vocabulary of a 3rd grader was always the better play
Abdul El-Sayed: “We are being actively bullied by the dumbest people in the room. Donald Trump is an idiot. He has one genius which is getting attention. Because his dad never gave him enough, because he was a nepo baby, he craved attention and used the bullying tactics to get it. But the man is an idiot. Just a fool”
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This is probably more revealing of GOP enthusiasm than every poll released thus far.
"In the past decade, none of the three biggest cable news outlets have suffered a decline in the month before a national election as big as Fox News did this year." hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-…
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It's infuriating that this wasn't the normalized approach for like 5-10 yrs. Just forced to watch the press/pundits pretend to take incoherent "policies" seriously, even auto-paraphrasing Trump remarks as if we dont already know he's clueless and winging it. ENOUGH. FINALLY.
Abdul El-Sayed: “We are being actively bullied by the dumbest people in the room. Donald Trump is an idiot. He has one genius which is getting attention. Because his dad never gave him enough, because he was a nepo baby, he craved attention and used the bullying tactics to get it. But the man is an idiot. Just a fool”
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