Columnist @Reuters @Breakingviews. Views subject to change on new evidence/data. 世事洞明皆学问
London, England
Joined April 2010
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Yawen Chen retweeted
As inflation peaks, war rages and trade conflicts harden, new ways of thinking about how and why the world has changed are emerging. Read ‘Paradigm Drift’, @Breakingviews’ collection of predictions for 2024, here: reut.rs/3S1Ykax #BVPredicts
Personal update: I’ve relocated to London and will be writing more about the region for @Breakingviews, with an interest in European energy, property and the crossover w/ China. Here’s my first take on Blackstone’s latest headache, as cracks show in the commercial property market
Steve Schwarzman's firm defaulted on a 297 million euro securitised loan backed by Nordic offices, after failing to win support from bondholders. More messy workouts are likely as troubled deals come due, writes @ywchen1 bit.ly/3ZVglZ3
Must be a particularly difficult day for $BABA as it kicked off today the annual Singles Day shopping spectacle, China’s Black Friday equivalent. A friend said she is only considering buying three things this year, with coupons for McDonald’s being the top item on her wish list.
Hong Kong has been absent from the travel itinerary of Wall Street bosses for nearly three years. As Singapore steals its limelight, the city is facing more pressure to show it’s open for business. My latest
On @Breakingviews: Hong Kong's central bank chief is luring global financiers to the city's November confab, but they're unlikely to agree without quarantine waivers. That risks local ire. But to stay relevant, Hong Kong has little choice, says @ywchen1 reut.rs/3cNGAxX
Reading the prospectus of AMTD, the mysterious co that had at its peak soared 36,400% over its U.S. IPO price before coming crashing down, and this mission statement cracks me up. “Fusion reactor”, what a strange euphemism for saying “hey we are power/financial brokers”
Yawen Chen retweeted
Authorities in Henan finally agreed to cover customer deposits that were frozen in April after getting caught in a possible fraud. It’s a cautionary tale for China’s 1,600-odd village banks that receive insufficient regulatory oversight, writes @ywchen1: reut.rs/3yYwbrk
Heard some friends in Shanghai urgently packed up bags over the past weekend. We had written in May China’s covid-19 “new normal” will challenge hopes for a quick rebound. reuters.com/breakingviews/gl… reuters.com/world/china/chin…
July is going to be a tough month for Chinese developers and their investors. Little surprise that Shanghai-based Shimao, once with good standing, missed repayments on $1 bln offshore bond this past weekend
From @Breakingviews: China Vanke reckons parts of the Chinese housing market are recovering. But weaker rivals are struggling and a rebound requires access to borrowing markets where investors remain skeptical, say @ywchen1 and @JennHughes13 reut.rs/3Nw2txZ
Yawen Chen retweeted
In April, Shanghai declared all-out war against Omicron. As the city finally opens up once more, many are emerging from lockdown traumatized by what they experienced. A Sixth Tone Film on how residents are trying to pick up the pieces — and regain some sense of normality.
Uncontained, the present crisis risks a vicious cycle in which falling real wages further deter domestic consumption, and therefore investment and job creation. It’s a scenario reminiscent of the stagnation that plagued Japan for decades. My latest
Youth unemployment hit a record 18% as the national rate heads toward levels not seen since 2008. This Chinese jobs crisis could be its worst, writes @ywchen1 reut.rs/3N9HBMG
Traveling back to HK from a mask-free country makes every detail stand out. My quarantine hotel, for one, would have staff disinfect and wipe the counter every time before a guest checks in, even as we all wear a mask. Hence the long wait. Supply chain bottlenecks, I feel you
Today Alibaba reported that its annual active consumers in the last fiscal year crossed 1 bln in China for the first time. There are 1.4 bln people in the country. Other factors aside, that saturation alone probably prompted the urgency for finding growth elsewhere.
From @Breakingviews: Chinese tech giant Alibaba hopes to offset slow growth at home by expanding in Europe via its Southeast Asian offshoot, Lazada. But with a European market share of less than 5%, it may struggle to justify the investment, says @ywchen1 reut.rs/3PSoTvQ
The central bank finally made a tiny cut of 25bp to the bank reserve ratio. But as I argued days before, for private businesses, uncertainty as to when lockdowns will end and whether they will resume soon after, will deter investment and hiring regardless of the cost of credit
From @Breakingviews: China is at risk of a self-inflicted recession. Shops are shut and factories struggle with several cities under some sort of lockdown. More policy easing looks unavoidable, but so does capital flight, says @ywchen1 reut.rs/37Ly5QP
Similar q haunting me over the weekend. What will happen if China sticks to dynamic zero for, say, 10 years? It's not impossible.
Yawen Chen retweeted
Decamping auditors are slamming the door on Chinese developers. It’s a little late to be taking a stand, but mass switching to local firms will close off whatever was left of the offshore borrowing market. says @ywchen1 bit.ly/3wJKLm0
