Amalia Barnoschi

The FTSE 100 opened higher on Thursday, gaining 0.3% to 10,721.42 as investors continued to digest the UK Autumn Budget, with stronger earnings from Shell and gains across defence and aerospace stocks supporting London’s blue-chip index. The FTSE 250 remained broadly unchanged at 24,636.72, suggesting a relatively subdued reaction among companies more closely exposed to the domestic economy. Shell was among the leading FTSE 100 gainers, with shares rising following the oil giant’s third-quarter results. Shell’s shares were reported up between 1.9% and 2.6% during early trading. 📑share-talk.com/ftse-100-clim…

Sometimes all you need is a headline like this. We are likely in the bottoming process for precious metals. Miners oversold. Metals positioning overly bearish. U.S. dollar overvalued and overbought. Rates rolling over. tavicosta.substack.com/p/ech… H/t to @SamsonLi7

ACFMorningMeeting - Budget relief and ECB caution - UK investors have absorbed the Budget without a borrowing shock, and a generous yield response. With £15bn of fiscal headroom and a temporary rise in the bank surcharge leaves gilt yields and bank earnings in focus. Across Europe, today’s ECB decision comes amid French bond pressure, while the Fed’s hold with two votes for a rise keeps borrowing costs in view. Lower oil eases one inflation concern; the policy backdrop still favours selective buying over a broad rally. Morning Trade Session - UK and European cash markets have risen this morning, with large-cap results doing much of the work. The FTSE 100 reached 10,733.52 (+0.36%) at 08:35 GMT as Shell $SHEL.L gained after stronger 3Q earnings and a $5bn buyback; the FTSE 250 was up just +0.1% around 09:17 GMT. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were each up +0.4% around 09:17 GMT, with Airbus $AIR.PA supporting Paris. The wider STOXX 600 was up only +0.11% at 08:06 GMT: Haleon $HLN.L’s guidance cut and weakness in technology show that gains remain selective ahead of the ECB. Stock Watch - STMicroelectronics $STM reported 3Q sales of $3.76bn (+17.9% y/y) and a $4.15bn 4Q sales midpoint today. Watch $LLOY's 3Q against the Budget's temporary bank surcharge rise; $SHEL and Haleon also have scheduled updates. Molecular Partners $MOLN narrowed its radiotherapy focus and guided cash runway into late 2027. Commods - OIL Brent ~$114.08/bbl (-1.07%); WTI ~$101.52/bbl (-1.22%) as Iran diplomacy trims the risk premium. GOLD ~$4,031/oz (-0.90%); COPPER ~$6.60/lb (-0.6%). 28 Oct ICE closes: COCOA ~$5,462/t (-2.06%), SUGAR ~19.36¢/lb (+0.83%), COFFEE ~286.35¢/lb (-2.52%). Data Focus - ECB decision 13:15 GMT. The Fed held 3.75–4.00% yesterday by 10–2, with both dissenters seeking a hike. ACFView:. Watch ECB language and gilt spreads before the USopen. @WizardBattery @EU_Startups @Share_Talk @ZaksTradersCafe @zakmir @VOXmarkets @focusIR @LondonSouthEast @BullsNBearsWA @ArthurBenta @aimrns

ACFMorningMeeting - Budget relief and ECB caution - UK investors have absorbed the Budget without a borrowing shock, and a generous yield response. With £15bn of fiscal headroom and a temporary rise in the bank surcharge leaves gilt yields and bank earnings in focus. Across Europe, today’s ECB decision comes amid French bond pressure, while the Fed’s hold with two votes for a rise keeps borrowing costs in view. Lower oil eases one inflation concern; the policy backdrop still favours selective buying over a broad rally. Morning Trade Session - UK and European cash markets have risen this morning, with large-cap results doing much of the work. The FTSE 100 reached 10,733.52 (+0.36%) at 08:35 GMT as Shell $SHEL.L gained after stronger 3Q earnings and a $5bn buyback; the FTSE 250 was up just +0.1% around 09:17 GMT. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were each up +0.4% around 09:17 GMT, with Airbus $AIR.PA supporting Paris. The wider STOXX 600 was up only +0.11% at 08:06 GMT: Haleon $HLN.L’s guidance cut and weakness in technology show that gains remain selective ahead of the ECB. Stock Watch - STMicroelectronics $STM reported 3Q sales of $3.76bn (+17.9% y/y) and a $4.15bn 4Q sales midpoint today. Watch $LLOY's 3Q against the Budget's temporary bank surcharge rise; $SHEL and Haleon also have scheduled updates. Molecular Partners $MOLN narrowed its radiotherapy focus and guided cash runway into late 2027. Commods - OIL Brent ~$114.08/bbl (-1.07%); WTI ~$101.52/bbl (-1.22%) as Iran diplomacy trims the risk premium. GOLD ~$4,031/oz (-0.90%); COPPER ~$6.60/lb (-0.6%). 28 Oct ICE closes: COCOA ~$5,462/t (-2.06%), SUGAR ~19.36¢/lb (+0.83%), COFFEE ~286.35¢/lb (-2.52%). Data Focus - ECB decision 13:15 GMT. The Fed held 3.75–4.00% yesterday by 10–2, with both dissenters seeking a hike. ACFView:. Watch ECB language and gilt spreads before the USopen. @WizardBattery @EU_Startups @Share_Talk @ZaksTradersCafe @zakmir @VOXmarkets @focusIR @LondonSouthEast @BullsNBearsWA @ArthurBenta @aimrns

ACFMarketWrap: A £15bn UK Budget cushion, a Fed decision and fresh AI chip deals are setting the stage for a pivotal session across global markets - Wall Street edged higher as investors balanced renewed semiconductor optimism against uncertainty over the Fed's next move and a wave of major technology earnings. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Nasdaq rose 0.4% and Dow hovered near flat ahead of the central bank's policy announcement. Markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged following last month's 25bp hike, with attention firmly on guidance for the rest of the year. AI stocks found support after South Korea's SK Hynix reported record quarterly profits, while reports that OpenAI plans to purchase AI chips from $GOOG added momentum to the sector. $AVGO +2%, $MU +4.9% and $AMD +1.8%, while real estate and materials lagged. Investors also awaited after-hours results from $MSFT and $GOOG. Mag 7 mixed: $GOOG +1.6%, $NVDA -0.32%, $MSFT -0.73%, $AMZN -0.19%, $TSLA -1.55%, $META -1.04%, $AAPL -0.34%. London held steady, with the FTSE 100 near flat as Chancellor John Healey unveiled his first Budget, sending UK 10-year gilt yields towards 5.3%, their lowest in over a month. The government reaffirmed its fiscal rules, with the OBR projecting £15bn of fiscal headroom for 2029-30, broadly matching expectations, while planned gilt issuance remained in line with forecasts. Measures included energy bill relief, smaller-than-feared bank tax increases, tariff suspensions on more than 100 supermarket products and a 3.9% rise in minimum wages. The Budget also committed an additional £20.4bn to the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank to support investment and an estimated 140,000 jobs. However, the economic outlook remained challenging: the OBR cut its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1% from 1.6%, citing the impact of the Iran war, while lifting its 2026 estimate to 1.2% from 1.1%. Borrowing and public debt projections were also revised higher across the forecast period. European equities struggled for direction, with the Euro STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 broadly unchanged as gains in Germany and Italy offset a decline of more than 1% in Spain following a fatal rail crash that claimed 68 lives. Rising Middle East tensions lifted crude prices and supported oil and gas stocks, which gained over 1%, while autos advanced more than 1% and utilities added over 0.5%. Media stocks dropped ~2%, with miners, household goods and chemicals also under pressure. Corporate earnings drove sharp moves: $LOGN -10% on supply-chain concerns, $GSK -5% after disappointing results and $SAN -5.5% on weaker net profit, while $UBS -1%. ethereum:0x45e02bc2875a2914c4f585bbf92a6f28bc07cb70 +0.4% despite lowering its outlook, and $BNP +0.3%. Financials offered some bright spots, with $WLN +5%, $STAN +2.7% and $DBK +4% on stronger results or guidance. Next in focus: Fed Interest Rate Decision & Japan Consumer Confidence. ACFview @WizardBattery @EU_Startups @Share_Talk @ZaksTradersCafe @zakmir @VOXmarkets @focusIR @LondonSouthEast @BullsNBearsWA @ArthurBenta