@IsraelPolicy4m policy analyst and longtime MENA observer. Opinions are my own. RTs are not endorsements.
Washington, DC Metro area
Joined March 2012
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Garrett Nada retweeted
אהוד ברק: ״איזנקוט צריך להעמיד ממשלת מיעוט עם כל מי שיש לו. אני מציע לכל מי שמלרלר על ״ההבטחות״ - לבדוק מה נתניהו היה עושה במקרה הפוך. הוא לא היה מהסס לשנייה. מנסור עבאס היה מתמנה אצל נתניהו לשר הפנים והיה חבר קבינט, ואחמד טיבי נהפך לשר הבריאות. מחנה השינוי צריך לאבד את התמימות שצריך להצדיק דברים שנתניהו לא היה מקדיש להם רגע של מחשבה.״
🧵on #IsraelElection now that the vote count is complete. Yes, Likud is set to have 27 seats, more than any other party. But a clear majority of Israelis voted for parties outside the Netanyahu-led coalition. So where does that leave the opposition? Liberman apparently is taking calls, and banking on his previous claims of potential Likud defectors is risky at best. UTJ's reported openness to supporting an Eisenkot-led minority government in exchange for a watered-down conscription law would be unacceptable to many voters.
The opposition needs to move fast on:
-Replacing the Knesset speaker and committee chairs
-Forming a long-overdue commission of inquiry into October 7
-Passing a law mandating universal military or national-civilian service
-Transforming the patchwork of Basic Laws into a constitution
-Imposing a term limit for prime ministers
-Cracking down on settler violence
-Combating crime
The opposition can begin advancing some of these priorities as soon as the new Knesset takes office, even as coalition formation talks continue. If a minority government, however short-lived, takes swift and decisive action on these issues, it could set the stage for another round of—hopefully more decisive—elections in 2027 that could give Eisenkot and his allies a clear mandate to steer the country in a different direction. Follow @IsraelPolicy4m's 120 Project for resources on the election: israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe…
Even if "insane" is hyperbole, restarting the #IranWar could come at a time when U.S. forces are overstretched; interceptors are in short supply; U.S. bases (not to mention critical Gulf infrastructure) remain vulnerable to drones and missiles—and just after Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Pentagon’s director of strategy, plans and policy, was reportedly fired by Secretary Hegseth. cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-fir…
With much of #Iran's economy already under sanctions, the Trump administration is will find it harder and harder to find meaningful new targets. It is locked in an endless game of whack-a-mole as Tehran continues to adapt and find ways to circumvent existing measures. There's no way to hermetically seal off Iran from the world given its nearly 3,700 miles of land borders with 7 countries and roughly 2,000 miles of coastline along 3 bodies of water. Sanctions are a tool—not a replacement for a cohesive, goal-oriented strategy. This Reuters investigation is just the latest illustration of the limits of sanctions and blockades:
Iran created a secret network of military agencies to import at least $2 billion in hardware, explosives and heavy-duty trucks since January 2025, evading both the US naval blockade and Western sanctions, a Reuters investigation found reut.rs/3UNGyfk
ICYMI, @IsraelPolicy4m experts unpacked the results of the #IsraelElection and what comes next. @ReichmanShanie moderated a wide-ranging discussion w/@RCBrandenburg, @drothem, @GabrielEpsteinX, and @NeriZilber: youtube.com/watch?v=fAzFtJMn…
Garrett Nada retweeted
VP Vance proposes restarting peace talks soon with Iran, including nuclear negotiations, in a letter to Gen. Rezaie. An Iranian and an American official said direct talks could potentially begin as early as next week. Details: w/ @tylerpager
nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/po…
Garrett Nada retweeted
NEW: VP VANCE is engaging one of Iran’s most powerful hard-liners to revive peace negotiations as President Trump threatens to restart the war after next week’s midterm elections, U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.
The letter was sent at Trump’s direction, one person said, and Trump is aware of the outreach.
W/ @benoitfaucon @alexbward
GIFT LINK: wsj.com/world/middle-east/va…
Diplomats are racing to end the #IranWar before the Nov. 3 midterms lift some of the political constraints that have discouraged President Trump from pursuing further military action. But the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough are bleak, given the gulf between U.S. and Iranian positions. Renewed military escalation may therefore be the most likely way to break the current stalemate—just as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sees another round of fighting as a potential path to a unity government and a political lifeline amid the deadlock following #IsraelElections. reuters.com/world/asia-pacif…
Garrett Nada retweeted
In his first remarks after the polls closed, Democrats chairman Yair Golan hinted that Israel's opposition should include the Arab parties in its efforts to form a coalition in order to oust Netanyahu: "Every Knesset member elected in the democratic, legal process is a legitimate part of our political system. If there is a democratic majority to replace the government of destruction - we must actualize it," he said. @Yair_Foldes shorturl.at/jdzW2
Garrett Nada retweeted
🔴 Ra’am Party leader Abbas confirms to i24NEWS: ‘Yes we have spoken to parties following the exit polls, people from the right have approached us’ @ariel_oseran
Garrett Nada retweeted
Assuming the Israeli exit polls are more or less accurate (not Ch. 14), there is now going to be huge pressure on Eisenkot and the opposition to form a unity government with Netanyahu. Doing so would be a big mistake, both substantively and politically 🧵
The historic turnout among Arab citizens in #IsraelElection--reportedly 73% as of 8pm and probably climbing--raised the bar for entry into the knessset for smaller parties. Exit polls from multiple channels suggest that The Reservists and Amcha Yisrael did not clear the threshold, shifting the calculus for forming a coalition. My @IsraelPolicy4m colleague @GabrielEpsteinX has been tracking the participation of various Arab communities:
8 p.m. Arab turnout update: Arab turnout (excluding mixed cities and Jerusalem) has reached 73.05% by my calculation, already the highest since 1999 (75%) and only 1.3% below national turnout (74.3%). Projected Arab turnout is also now higher than overall national turnout in any election since 1999. Nothing short of a revolution has taken place in the sector.
The Negev Bedouin remain ahead of the national average with 76.8% turnout, and the northern Bedouin sit at 73.8%.
Non-Druze, Non-Bedouin localities show a turnout rate of 75.13%. Christian Arab localities sit at 70.5%.
The lagging sub-sectors remain the Druze (56.5%) and Circassians (60.9%). The wave that swept the rest of the sector appears to have left them behind.
Garrett Nada retweeted
8 p.m. Arab turnout update: Arab turnout (excluding mixed cities and Jerusalem) has reached 73.05% by my calculation, already the highest since 1999 (75%) and only 1.3% below national turnout (74.3%). Projected Arab turnout is also now higher than overall national turnout in any election since 1999. Nothing short of a revolution has taken place in the sector.
The Negev Bedouin remain ahead of the national average with 76.8% turnout, and the northern Bedouin sit at 73.8%.
Non-Druze, Non-Bedouin localities show a turnout rate of 75.13%. Christian Arab localities sit at 70.5%.
The lagging sub-sectors remain the Druze (56.5%) and Circassians (60.9%). The wave that swept the rest of the sector appears to have left them behind.
6 p.m. Arab turnout update: Arab turnout has reached 62.0% by my calculation (excluding mixed cities and Jerusalem), far surpassing 2022 turnout. The gap between this and national turnout is only 4.7%, and Arab turnout is now almost certain to surpass the previous highs of 2015 and 2020 (~64-65%). The highest Arab turnout in modern Israel was 75% in 1999.
Negev Bedouin turnout (68.5%) continues to exceed national turnout, while northern Bedouin turnout has jumped up to 63.4%.
Non-Bedouin, non-Druze Arab localities are now reporting turnout of 63.6%. It is Christian (59.0%), Druze (44.8%), and Circassian (51.6%) localities that lag behind.
Garrett Nada retweeted
How are Israeli election results calculated?
IPF explains, in brief: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
Garrett Nada retweeted
If current turnout numbers hold—which indicate highest Israeli turnout this century—it will force a critical decision. If most of the higher turnout is driven by voters supporting Ra'am and Joint List, it will bring the coalition numbers down but also the Jewish opposition 1/
