Credible and constructive policy analysis and educational resources on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli politics, U.S.-Israel relations, and more.
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The time has come to chart the next phase of the U.S.-Israel security relationship.
Our new report by @RCBrandenburg, @GabrielEpsteinX, @elisaewers44, and @mkoplow lays out a vision for the next MOU: moving from a provider-recipient framework to a greater partnership.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
With 100% of votes counted, the final results from Israel’s election show the Netanyahu-led coalition with 53 seats, the Jewish opposition parties with 48 seats, and 19 seats for the two Arab parties. A short thread summarizing some of the most notable results: 🧵
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
If Eisenkot, Bennett, and Liberman decide to sit with Bibi, it’s a legitimate choice. But the notion being pushed as if Netanyahu has had no agency for any of the truly disastrous and damaging things his government has done is historical revisionism before it’s even history
🧵👇
🧵on #IsraelElection now that the vote count is complete. Yes, Likud is set to have 27 seats, more than any other party. But a clear majority of Israelis voted for parties outside the Netanyahu-led coalition. So where does that leave the opposition? Liberman apparently is taking calls, and banking on his previous claims of potential Likud defectors is risky at best. UTJ's reported openness to supporting an Eisenkot-led minority government in exchange for a watered-down conscription law would be unacceptable to many voters.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
🧵on #IsraelElection now that the vote count is complete. Yes, Likud is set to have 27 seats, more than any other party. But a clear majority of Israelis voted for parties outside the Netanyahu-led coalition. So where does that leave the opposition? Liberman apparently is taking calls, and banking on his previous claims of potential Likud defectors is risky at best. UTJ's reported openness to supporting an Eisenkot-led minority government in exchange for a watered-down conscription law would be unacceptable to many voters.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Israelis overwhelmingly voted to oppose Netanyahu and the government, but Netanyahu himself is one of the clear winners of the election. If the opposition tries to reconcile these two things through a unity government with him, it will be an epic mistake israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Even if "insane" is hyperbole, restarting the #IranWar could come at a time when U.S. forces are overstretched; interceptors are in short supply; U.S. bases (not to mention critical Gulf infrastructure) remain vulnerable to drones and missiles—and just after Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Pentagon’s director of strategy, plans and policy, was reportedly fired by Secretary Hegseth. cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-fir…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
ICYMI, @IsraelPolicy4m experts unpacked the results of the #IsraelElection and what comes next. @ReichmanShanie moderated a wide-ranging discussion w/@RCBrandenburg, @drothem, @GabrielEpsteinX, and @NeriZilber: youtube.com/watch?v=fAzFtJMn…
If you missed our webinar today assessing the results of the Israeli election and what may happen next with @ReichmanShanie, @RCBrandenburg, @drothem, @GabrielEpsteinX, and @NeriZilber, the recording is available now: youtu.be/fAzFtJMn1Oc?si=cgqV…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Strong US-Israel bilateral relationship — “even close to the strength that we’ve known it for the past couple of decades” — will depend on new govt’s behavior, @RCBrandenburg said b4 election. Netanyahu may have won Israel. He’s losing America. forward.com/opinion/858794/i…
Starting shortly:
Unpacking Israel’s Vote—and What Comes Next
Join @RCBrandenburg, @drothem, @NeriZilber, @GabrielEpsteinX & moderator @ReichmanShanie today at 2pm ET to unpack the election results, coalition talks, and the dynamics at play.
Register: israelpolicyforum.zoom.us/we…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
As the results get finalized today or tomorrow, the gap to pay attention to is not between the opposition writ large and the Bibi bloc. It’s between the opposition bloc (Yashar, Beyachad, Liberman, Democrats) plus Ra’am, and the Bibi bloc. If that first group is larger than the Bibi bloc, minority government becomes much more feasible since it only requires a Joint List abstention. If Bibi has more than those five parties and it requires a Joint List vote in favor, it is exponentially more difficult politically. That’s when the calls for a unity government will start to become more attractive to folks in the opposition who may crack.
"Israelis turned out in numbers not seen in nearly four decades—including record turnout by Israel’s Arab community—and while the outcome remains uncertain, a clear majority of Israelis voted for the opposition rather than the ruling coalition. The results are a rejection of the direction the Netanyahu government has taken Israel and demonstrate that Israelis—both Jews and Arabs—are seeking change. No one has won an outright majority, and forming the next government will take time. But the opposition has realistic paths to a coalition, while Netanyahu faces a much more difficult route to securing a governing majority, despite having outperformed the polls and expectations."
- Israel Policy Forum CEO David A. Halperin @dhalperin
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Israelis turned out in numbers not seen in nearly four decades—including record turnout by Israel’s Arab community—and while the outcome remains uncertain, a clear majority of Israelis voted for the opposition rather than the ruling coalition. The results are a rejection of the direction the Netanyahu government has taken Israel and demonstrate that Israelis—both Jews and Arabs—are seeking change. No one has won an outright majority, and forming the next government will take time. But the opposition has realistic paths to a coalition, while Netanyahu faces a much more difficult route to securing a governing majority, despite having outperformed the polls and expectations.
Unpacking Israel’s Vote—and What Comes Next
Join @RCBrandenburg, @drothem, @NeriZilber, @GabrielEpsteinX & moderator @ReichmanShanie today at 2pm ET to unpack the election results, coalition talks, and the dynamics at play.
Register: israelpolicyforum.zoom.us/we…
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Updating this now that 77.6% of the vote has been counted. All of the conclusions in the quoted tweet hold, as well as:
•The Arab parties are likely to strengthen by perhaps another seat or two in regular ballot counting and then perhaps to lose it during the double-envelope counting, which will favor Zionist parties.
•The gap between coalition and opposition has narrowed, as expected, but it's clear that the four opposition parties + Ra'am will not reach 61 seats alone.
• Reservists-Economy would need to win close to 5% of the ~1.2 million remaining votes to be in position to cross the electoral threshold. That's very unlikely but not impossible, depending on how well the party does among the ~470,000 double-envelope ballots.
An underrated point so far: for all the discussion of the non-optimal arrangement of Netanyahu's bloc, they were successful at pressuring parties to withdraw or attacking them to drive their vote total down. Right now, Reservists-Economy is burning more votes than Amcha Israel, Noam, and the Haredi splinter parties combined. That isn't to say votes for Reservists-Economy would otherwise have gone to the opposition, but a reminder that bloc organization can only do so much to outweigh size.
With 50.1% of the vote counted (still a non-representative sample, so things will shift further), I think it's okay to begin drawing some interim conclusions:
• Amcha Israel is almost certainly out of the running. Reservists-Economy would need to see significantly better results from the remaining ballots to cross, but remains within about half a point of the threshold. Double envelopes may be consequential here.
• The bloc balance is likely to shift a bit further back towards the opposition and Arab parties as some big cities and Arab localities publish more results. Ra'am in particular should rise as votes from the Negev Bedouin are added in.
• The argument that Channel 14 and i24 were right in their pre-election polling is not yet convincing to me. The bloc totals are likely to look much more like what the main pollsters had predicted, and Likud's strengthening mostly came at the expense of other parties in the Netanyahu bloc. It's not tenable (in my view) to say that a pollster was "right" about one part of a polling picture if it created disalignment elsewhere (like overestimating other parties in the bloc). We need to see more of the actual results to do a fair comparison, of course -- and the argument could still validate itself.
• The early predictions about Yisrael Beitenu falling below the threshold look to have been pretty far off -- it is sitting comfortably right now and is likely to win 7-8 seats.
There'll be much more to say by tomorrow afternoon (morning for us here in the U.S.).
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
This has been the standard rule of Israeli politics, and it gives Netanyahu a built-in advantage. The tragedy here is that the opposition bloc laid the foundation for it in this election rather than tearing the structure down by needlessly ruling out Arab parties from the get go
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Folks should be following @GabrielEpsteinX for all data analysis on Israel's election and more.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
The pressure is going to rest on the idea that relying on any Arab party support is illegitimate, dangerous, or irresponsible when there is a Zionist option to be had. This, after Israeli Arabs turned out in historic numbers, after Ra'am did everything it could to make itself acceptable to the Jewish majority and put a Zionist Yesh Atid MK as the second person on its list, and after Ra'am has been clear that it will not only participate in a Zionist government but accepts all three of Eisenkot's principles for joining (acceptance of Israel as Jewish and democratic, supporting the principles in the declaration if independence, and endorsing national service). If after all of that, the Jewish opposition bloc thinks it is better to join with Bibi despite repeatedly tabbing him as a force of destruction who is evading responsibility for Oct. 7 and puts his own needs above the state's, then the message to 1/5 of Israel's citizens will be that there is literally nothing they can do that will be accepted by the Jewish majority. If that is the opposition's position in the end, then the paeans to how wonderful it is that Arabs get to vote and serve in Knesset will be as hollow as possible. This is the perfect opportunity to genuinely integrate an Arab party and its voters into Israel's political system on completely Zionist terms. Eschewing that will do incalculable damage on multiple fronts.
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Assuming the Israeli exit polls are more or less accurate (not Ch. 14), there is now going to be huge pressure on Eisenkot and the opposition to form a unity government with Netanyahu. Doing so would be a big mistake, both substantively and politically 🧵
Israel Policy Forum retweeted
8 p.m. turnout update: 74.3% (5,449,277 votes cast) -- turnout is starting to slow down, but remains higher than all but one election (1988) since 1973 at this stage. It is likely to reach 80%, but will probably not go much above that. The gap from 2022's turnout is 8%.
