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Forthcoming from @Rout_PoliticsIR @routledgebooks The Liberal Mind in a Conservative Party: Intellectuals and the Liberal Party of Australia.
Geoff Robinson retweeted
All the demographic destiny stuff continues to be loser talk from the 2000s. In the Trump era we've had massive swings in voting behavior by education, age, race, religion, and then back again, we've had a Texas R+2, a Texas R+14, and a Texas D+11 election, it's all up for grabs.
Geoff Robinson retweeted
While there are plenty of political eclectics in the UK (as many as there are consistent leftists and rightists) the eclectics are *not* ‘consistently eclectic’ i.e. the combinations are themselves eclectic - a massive ‘left on econ., right on culture’ bloc just doesn’t exist.
Apparently being pro-Israel implies belief that America is at war with Qatar & Turkey?
Imagine cutting military aid to a vital ally that delivers enormous security and strategic benefits to America—all to appease the far left and far right.
First Israel. Then Jordan and Egypt. Next, the billions we spend maintaining American forces in South Korea, Japan, and Europe.
This is American retreat. And Iran, China, Russia, North Korea, and the Muslim Brotherhood regimes in Turkey and Qatar are cheering.
Populist right pivot 1984-style from populist anti-legalism pitting unelected judges vs The People (on which they sometimes have a point) to The rule of Law-politics all the way down?
Les évènements graves qui se déroulent actuellement en Pologne autour du Tribunal constitutionnel suscitent une profonde inquiétude.
La suspension contestée du président du Tribunal, l’intervention des forces de sécurité autour de cette institution semblent s’apparenter à une prise de contrôle forcée d’une institution constitutionnelle.
L’indifférence de l’Union européenne et le silence des médias face à la crise polonaise suscitent de légitimes interrogations : on ne peut prétendre défendre la démocratie et l’État de droit et se taire lorsque l’équilibre constitutionnel d’un État membre est gravement menacé.
On ne restaure pas l’État de droit en donnant le sentiment de s’affranchir soi-même des règles qui le fondent.
La multiplication de ces coups de force au sein même de l’Union européenne commence à sérieusement interroger.
Geoff Robinson retweeted
The Republicans (disproportionately) don’t talk to pollsters thing is real.
Assuming that the pollsters haven’t fully compensated for this in their models (which could be a big assumption or a wrong assumption, I have no idea), the question is how many of the folks refusing to talk to pollsters will vote for Republicans in the midterms and how many are refusing to talk to pollsters in part because they’re also refusing to vote for Republicans.
In other words there’s a lot of cope in the idea that every single reluctant poll-taker is an eager Republican voter. I have no idea how to figure out what the share is. But it seems obvious that at least some people refusing to say they’ll vote Republican are also likely to be people refusing to, you know, vote Republican.
One Nation right to drop the 90s populism for standard conservatism + regional pork?
I think this is the most important chart of the 2026 election (via @sfcpoll)
Geoff Robinson retweeted
I get the responses to this, but one thing the old Netroots were right about is the internet makes it impossible for the old gatekeepers to function. In a country where opinion ranges from Trump to Bernie, you can no longer impose a politics that ranges from Romney to Clinton.
Looking at @ozprodcom government services report on school test scores & noting implicit class structure model
Economic liberals should be cautious about being sucked in culture wars-probably true for left as well?
Thoughtful as ever from @K_Niemietz on his time at the IEA in the ultra-polarising Brexit period.
For four long years (16-20), too many lazy people used bad heuristics to assume others' views.
Geoff Robinson retweeted
"Friends", the TV show, was a valuable public good.
In interviews across world regions, many people tell me about how much they enjoyed seeing these on-screen supportive friendships.
(Excerpt from Mehrdad Babadi's excellent PhD thesis on young Iranians) proquest.com/docview/2985911…
This is East Timor redux with Morocco as Indonesia, Spain as Portugal. Made me think of how Australia’s apologists for Indonesian conquest never held accountable? #Morocco
Geoff Robinson retweeted
Identity politics in the Democratic party is increasingly a game played by elites, not the grassroots. It is, as I wrote a couple months ago, both a cudgel and crutch. nytimes.com/2026/08/29/opini…
Very weird post. Why do so many liberals see the Democratic Party as a collection of racial interest groups rather than a coalition of voters with different priorities? Most Americans do not want to see their country as a collection of warring racial tribes. It’s strange that politicians keep pushing this worldview.
A revealing episode here, this person claims to an Enlightenment warrior against ‘Third Worldism’ (much stabbing of Frantz Fanon dolls) but she’s actually passionate Third Worldist for one 3rd country-Morocco
Thank you for your leadership, @michaelgwaltz. For the first time in decades, the United States has decided to move away from a MINURSO mission that has failed to resolve the Western Sahara conflict and instead helped perpetuate the very stalemate it was created to end:
"“Unfortunately, Russia vetoed what 11 other members of this Council supported — taking historic steps toward finally ending a 50-year conflict in the Western Sahara. We presented a path to finally stem the real, devastating human cost of this conflict by extending the UN mission in Western Sahara for 12 months, supported the Personal Envoy and the political process, and called on UNHCR to register the refugees in the Tindouf camps who have been waiting 50 years for a durable solution.
“Russia’s veto means the mission’s mandate will now expire on October 31. The Council chose not to take a step back from the historic progress of Resolution 2797 by not supporting Russia’s alternative text. This was all Russia’s choice.
“President Trump refuses to accept that this conflict is simply too difficult to solve—and under his leadership, we acted. Our resolution would have taken the next steps on that road to freedom and peace. We will not lend our vote to business as usual in the face of terrible conditions that the UN’s own High Commissioner for Refugees has called ‘untenable, unsustainable, and genuinely, truly inhumane.’
“We are prepared to work with the Secretary-General on an orderly drawdown that protects UN personnel and addresses legitimate security and humanitarian needs. And we will continue working with Personal Envoy de Mistura and each of the concerned parties to negotiate a lasting peace. Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has done more for peace in Western Sahara this year than in decades. We will not stop now.”"
Geoff Robinson retweeted
The plan was always to say it would take a few days or weeks and then a few months later claim that the sunk costs are too great and it just has to continue indefinitely now.
Geoff Robinson retweeted
Mindblowing chart from OBR. In 2029 real household disposable income per person expected to be just 1% higher than in 2019. What an unbelievably awful decade. It used to grow by 2%+ every year, not 1% in 10 years.


































