just figuring stuff out. politics and news

Joined March 2011
Let's put this in balance sheet terms because a lot of this talk is just a fallacy of composition in which the sovereign debt crisis crowd only looks at the debt side of things and ignores the fact that the asset side has also boomed. There is no balance sheet in the world that is healthier than the aggregate US economy's. It's not even close. Here's a chart of household and non-profit net worth relative to public debt. The reason the public debt isn't a worry is because the total assets of the private sector are gigantic and growing fast. The reason rates haven't changed much in the last 20 years is because the balance sheet the US government taxes has remained incredibly strong.
Lots of scary talk in bonds these days, but it's mostly recency bias. Since 1960 the 10 year yield has averaged 5.8%. We're at 5% - below average. If you'd fallen asleep 20 years ago and woke up today you'd think nothing happened in the bond market the entire time. Ignore all the sovereign debt crisis talk. Inflation expectations are adjusting to something more historically normalized. Carry on.
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Donald Trump's political career emerges out of a discourse about whether Barack Obama was a Muslim who had been secretly born in Kenya and had come to power in order to implement sharia law. People were not, actually, goaded into this theory by woke liberal arts students.
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Got our latest poll back at @TheArgumentMag. I've scoured a lot of data and cut it a bunch of different ways, but no matter *what* you do, all I can say is: JFC, this is one of the worst environments I have ever seen for Republicans, and literally all of it is just due to Trump.
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I don’t disagree with the diagnosis of Massachusetts needing change but the average voter there hates change and loves its do nothing politicians. Only 1/200 seats in the legislature has an incumbent lose the primary this year and he federally indicted on corruption charges
In Massachusetts, what I've noticed is that the average voter hates Trump but also hates what Democrats have done to the state, which was not always this moribund. Since COVID, it's just been one long decline: everything is absurdly expensive, and industry is being strangled by absurd regulations and a changing federal landscape and is either dying out or leaving for greener pastures (especially biotech, which was hot and dynamic in the 2010s and peaked circa 2021 before falling off precipitously). Beyond economics, The Lesbian Bar TM is actually what far too much of the state feels like and regular people are sick of those dynamics, too. People just want normal.
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its not that crazy when you also consider what else they agree on hating: IRS audits of small business and sole props, enforcement of DUI laws, and investigations of insurance fraud. The Suburban American (Upper) Middle Class can do a little crime & insurance fraud, as a treat.
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Uncharitably, I am assume the dark matter is driving. Drivers know they flagrantly violate the rule of the law everyday and live in terror of it being enforced.
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If the pro-AI people wanted to win here then they should have conducted themselves in a way that was consistent with them winning - IE not tying themselves to a super unpopular president so tightly or not engaging in such ham-fisted tactics (like how Jensen has personally called elected officials to get individual Republican staffers in their 20's fired for being critical of chip exports to China) or prioritizing getting the president's loyalty over aligning with the public - all the VC's falling over themselves to side with Trump and 10% of the public during the DOW-Anthropic fight against 90% of the public is a good example. The reality is that Jensen and Karp and A16z all calculated that if they paid Trump and his family a lot of money then they did not have to worry about literally any other stakeholders. But now Trump is quite unpopular and is three months away from being a lame duck - they're on an island on their own and I think it won't go well for them.
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1/ I saw this interesting paper by Slok & Edlich on AI's impact on the labor market. A methodological concern: usage of the OEWS for time series analysis - the data is poorly suited for comparisons and the BLS warns against doing it apollo.com/content/dam/apoll…
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Lennar saying labor availability is starting to become an issue -- deportations and data centers.
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Jay retweeted
We get a very rare poll of Alaska, from the AARP folks. May Peltola leads Senator Sullivan 53/47 in the final round of RCV.
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New - Generic ballot poll - National 🔵 Democrats 51% (New High) 🔴 Republicans 44% Certain to vote: D+11 Last poll - Dems +7 Fox #B - RV - 9/14
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Just to update this chart: 1) AI salience has increased dramatically in the past week - increasing as much in the last week as the previous year combined 2) 80% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI will cause widespread job loss in the five to ten years 3) 64% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI could pose a threat to humanity's survival 4) Large bipartisan majorities back immediate government action on AI even when primed about risk from China
Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI. AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.
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Google has launched the DeepMind Institute. 'While AI can still sometimes fail at basic tasks and lacks the consistency and creativity to meet the bar of full AGI, we expect those gaps to be closed soon.' institute.deepmind.com/
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📊 Generic Ballot by Marquette (A) Registered voters 🟦 Democrats: 50% (+4) 🟥 Republicans: 42% (−2) —— LIKELY VOTERS 🟦 Democrats: 54% (+3) 🟥 Republicans: 41% (-4) D+13 — the biggest Democratic lead this poll has ever shown (was D+6 in July) —— (+/- vs July) | 864 RV | 581 LV today.marquette.edu/2026/09/…
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People who are dismissive of AI safety concerns are generally coming from a place of skepticism about AI capabilities.
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Sheesh, NYT finds Dems leading the generic ballot by a whopping 9% - a year even BLUER than 2018! Polls increasingly pointing to a D+8/9 LANDSLIDE (10%-11% bluer than 2024). Corroborates the non-polling indicators, like primary turnout, which point to a year as blue as D+10/11!
NEW from DeCalibrate: Election coverage seems to assume, but rarely acknowledge, a Democratic landslide. But with Dems dominating the polls, and primaries/specials wrapping up, it's worth explicitly stating: The data UNAMBIGUOUSLY forecasts a blue wave. decalibrate.substack.com/p/t…
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Two things are true at once: 1. China distrusts US calls for an AI slowdown, seeing it as an effort to slow down China. 2. China is getting more worried about AI risks, not just deepfakes and AI content but cyber risks and autonomous agents.
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Yes, it will be similarly difficult in that the people who denied covid risks are also denying the AI risks.
there is no averting it now, "AI safety" is politically polarizing as we enter the midterm. incentives to both drive people into hysterics and to obscure real risk are now too high to stop. this will be at least as difficult an information environment as was covid.
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Replying to @deanwball
i've tried and failed to make this point as clearly as i want to, but: AI is weird, in that ppl who are optimistic about the technology's growth are often doomy about its implications; while ppl who are extremely skeptical about AI's capabilities are by default optimistic about it being a "normal" technology that won't change much in the world. so you have this weird situation where a lot of AI skeptics who haven't been following AI news for the last few years (bc they wrote the whole thing off as NFTs 2.0) have no idea that there exists an enormous contingent of AI ppl who have for 10+ years said that very fast AI progress could be really bad for the world, and therefore they suspect that a conspiracy was concocted in the last two weeks to invent the case for AI safety
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fwiw this is never going to happen imo Rs would sooner blow a billion than give up a Texas senate seat (and we’re not even close to triage territory either)
if we're still getting polls like this in a month, I wouldnt be surprised if the Texas GOP just triages Paxton in order to save Abbott and other downballot Rs
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