GoodHouse

Not sure where you’re getting 10x from. The net leverage ratio for the restricted group (which is what matters for the refi) is only 3.8x. Not to mention they are growing unlevered Fcf with EBITDA growth + falling capex

Owls fly together!

I track it daily with a one-day lag. $1.7T rolling LTM, roughly +$100B vs. a year ago. 90day rolling also up vs. a year ago. No signs of rolling over. dashboard.moderncreditventur…

Hear you but Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator showing +5% for 3Q. Tariffs, war, inflation having predictable (negative) impact on consumer economy while supporting certain parts of the industrial economy. Credit hanging in (for now)

BAML US HY Distressed index is down 17% since the beginning of 2025

The latest psyop: Muse will cause money to magically disappear

Reagan’s own Treasury Dept found over 40 years ago that there is no direct link between the US Govt budget position and interest rates (obviously the bit about deficits absorbing private savings is wrong)

Prelim ruling coming Sep 22 federalregister.gov/document…

This entire framing is ridiculous. TGA spending on bond buybacks is a reserve-add. To the extent that pushes downward pressure on Fed Funds Rate will require some combo of 1) Fed selling treasuries (likely t-bills) 2) UST issuing t-bills or 3) Fed RRP issuance. All ST funding

You are cherry picking the denominator when we had the sharpest GDP contraction ever. Dollar for dollar, over the last 365 days we are basically even with 2020 ($1.8T). I track this daily with data from the US Treasury Statement

We’re running pandemic era-level deficits at the moment…and you’re bearish?!

Fair enough. Fwiw I run my own macro credit stress indicator and it’s been falling like a rock (i.e. stress easing). Even if I swap out crude prices for retail gasoline prices, it’s still barely elevated. Bodes well for US consumers dashboard.moderncreditventur…

IT Services is not Infrastructure

This sounded further along than just an LOI to me but not trying to nitpick, I guess before it’s fully executed either side can still walk although buyer has sunk $3m deposit and finished DD. Would expect 8-K coming out in the next couple weeks