Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais) header
Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais) profile picture

Chief Economist, @ArchbridgeInst. PhD, @texastech. @Loyola_NOLA grad. Removing barriers to human flourishing and finding the best po-boy in New Orleans.

New Orleans, LA
Joined April 2011
Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)Photo by Justin Callais (@JustinTCallais)
Please join us in welcoming @rsalinasleon as a Latin America fellow! As president of the Alamos Alliance and a pivotal partner in developing our annual Latin America Summit, Roberto will help advance our mission to lift barriers to human flourishing across the globe. 🌎
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Justin Callais retweeted
New Stanford Childcare Model shows that reducing regulatory compliance costs by 20% reduces childcare prices and increases teacher wages. Our @ArchbridgeInst Child Care Regulation Index identifies next steps for cutting down on compliance costs in each individual state.
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Justin Callais retweeted
The AI response may well be imperfect, but it does raise a legitimate concern: your choice of which criticisms to engage with seems to consistently lean in one direction. Which is the criticism I made for years in many peer-reviewed papers. Rather than focusing on the AI response, appeals to authority, or rhetorical flourishes, I would welcome a substantive engagement with the arguments that Phil Magness (@PhilWMagness) and I have developed across multiple papers, which have so far gone largely unanswered. The same applies to the work of Auten and Splinter, Josh Rauh, and Sylvain Catherine. I think there is a basic principle of scholarly debate at stake here. It is difficult to invoke the importance of serious academic criticism while declining to engage with substantive objections from researchers who have devoted considerable effort to examining your work. This is particularly true when those objections are sometimes characterized in ways that do not accurately reflect the arguments being made. We are serious scholars raising serious questions. Surely, it is reasonable to expect that these arguments receive the same consideration as criticisms you have chosen to address. I am not asking for much—simply a fair and substantive engagement with our actual arguments. Ignore how mean Tyler was to you. That is not important to scholarship debates!
Hello @elonmusk and @tylercowen , You have just decided to publicly attack our research, six days before the vote on the California billionaire wealth tax. Your attempt to discredit our work and that of our numerous academic colleagues is pathetic. Let’s take a look. 🧵
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So far I've counted 6 of my previous podcast guests covering 8 episodes of @freethe_economy in attendance - a great sign! (s/o to @JustinTCallais, @rlorenc, @SamRaus1, @Galepooley, @JohnMTillman, & Peter Lipsett of @DonorsTrust)
The Principled Business Summit has begun. Investors, executives, entrepreneurs, and business leaders gathered in Austin to celebrate 250 years of capitalism and build the next 250. What are you building today that will still be creating value 250 years from now?
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Justin Callais retweeted
It's always a blast working with @JustinTCallais! We argue that, shockingly, creating a fund overseen by the agencies and interests that stand to receive its money is not how you drive adaptation to technological change. Read the rest below!
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I've been wanting to tweet about this forever. @TheIHS has this ridiculous tool called Scholar's Edge and it's full of the most beautiful public policy-related datasets and AI tools. It also has an MCP! Their people have a deep love of building and sharing knowledge and are a blast to work with.
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To this day, @AkashJC and his family celebrate July 15th as his father’s Americversary. His family’s American Dream story has driven much of his work at @FREOPP. But is that story still a possibility for many Americans today? On Ep. 15, we discuss affording the American Dream.
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In Episode 15 of From Ideas to Innovation, Akash also breaks down: → Why populism offers economic solutions to non-economic problems → What Capitol Hill taught him about redlining statutes, not just writing white papers → Why childcare deregulation is the most underrated affordability fix
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Listen to the full episode where you get your podcasts. Check-out my show notes and subscribe to get future episodes here: fromideastoinnovation.substa…
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Justin Callais retweeted
In @aier @thedailyeconomy, I discuss Benjamin Jaros @HooverInst & @joshrauh's excellent analysis of the #California wealth tax. thedailyeconomy.org/article/…
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5/ 3) Who is promising this is one-time? Saez & Zucman designed Warren’s annual wealth tax. Zucman’s 2024 G20 report suggested 2% of wealth annually on 3k billionaires. The architects of Prop 40 have argued for annual wealth taxes for two decades.
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7/ If Prop 40 fails, California lost the departures and got nothing. If it passes and stays one-time: some leavers are already gone. If it becomes annual: more leave, as everywhere else.
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4/ Europe already ran this experiment. France (1982–2017) lost 10,000+ millionaires and about €7B/yr in capital flight against only €3.5B raised. Norway’s 2022 hike pushed out 30+ billionaires in one year.
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2/ 1) The exodus already happened. Seven billionaires worth 1/4 of state's billionaire wealth, publicly left CA between the October 2025 filing and the January 1 residency snapshot. That rev is gone whether or not this passes.
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3/ 2) Zucman says the paper violates rational expectations, but it's reverse. A billionaire facing a $500M bill doesn’t need to be certain the tax becomes annual, just have it be a meaningful likelihood. Billionaires will leave if the annual tax seems possible
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