Research Fellow at @aier. @FreeConTalk All views are my own unless stated otherwise.
Joined September 2016
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Great to be on @FoxBusiness @Varneyco
AIER's @thomas_savidge discusses how increasing taxes often results in more bloated and less efficient governments.
Thomas Savidge retweeted
See all of the report’s key findings here! reason.org/transparency-proj… via @ReasonFdn
Thomas Savidge retweeted
New data out from @ReasonFdn on state and local government finances.
About half of state and local long-term debt is unfunded liabilities for retirement benefits for government workers.
Thomas Savidge retweeted
The demands for state (and big city) budget bailouts are coming. Congress needs to get ahead of them and say NO in advance: nationalreview.com/2026/09/a… (cc: @thomas_savidge)
New data out from @ReasonFdn on state and local government finances.
About half of state and local long-term debt is unfunded liabilities for retirement benefits for government workers.
Thomas Savidge retweeted
California serves as an example to Colorado, demonstrating why seemingly technical changes to fiscal rules can matter long after the political debate that produced them fades.
Read @thomas_savidge's latest for Civitas Outlook: civitasoutlook.pulse.ly/voka…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Isn't the point of taxes supposed to be to raise revenue?
“Across 100,000 simulated revenue and discount rate combinations, 85 percent of plausible outcomes produce a negative net present value of state revenues."
In @aier @thedailyeconomy, I discuss Benjamin Jaros @HooverInst & @joshrauh's excellent analysis of the #California wealth tax.
thedailyeconomy.org/article/…
ALT California’s income tax changes provide a cautionary tale. In 2012, voters approved Proposition 30, an increase on the existing 9.3 percent personal income tax rates on higher incomes through the end of 2018. These temporary increases were then extended through 2030, when voters approved Proposition 55 in 2016. Once government spending has been promised, it is tempting for policymakers to turn “one time” into “one more time.”
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Golden State or Golden Exit? Golden State or Golden Exit? I debate the California wealth tax with @gabriel_zucman on @SquawkCNBC
cnb.cx/4zah0YN
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Wealth taxes won't make life more affordable.
@joshrauh estimates California's proposed tax could lose revenue over time. @gabriel_zucman disputes the assumptions.
The key question: How do people respond to higher taxes?
vanceginn.substack.com/p/wea…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
1/10 In my latest for @AIER, I argue that America already has a conception of the common good, rooted in its founding. It is ordered liberty, sustained by constitutional institutions. The real threat to that common good came from progressivism, not classical liberalism.
In @aier @thedailyeconomy, I discuss Benjamin Jaros @HooverInst & @joshrauh's excellent analysis of the #California wealth tax.
thedailyeconomy.org/article/…
ALT California’s income tax changes provide a cautionary tale. In 2012, voters approved Proposition 30, an increase on the existing 9.3 percent personal income tax rates on higher incomes through the end of 2018. These temporary increases were then extended through 2030, when voters approved Proposition 55 in 2016. Once government spending has been promised, it is tempting for policymakers to turn “one time” into “one more time.”
Thomas Savidge retweeted
If a 5-percent levy chases billionaires out of Cali, the long-term income tax gap (not to mention litigation costs) will swallow any wealth-tax windfall.
cc: @thomas_savidge
thedailyeconomy.org/article/…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Zucman called this @HooverInst study by Jaros and @joshrauh on California’s billionaire tax “spectacularly misleading.” But his arguments here are wrong on (at least) three counts🧵
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading.
Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway.
At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25.
The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact.
ft.com/content/d66976…
nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/…
forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
I enjoyed being on the latest episode of the @healthpolicypod. @YouCanCallmeBry and I had a great discussion about costly healthcare and how to empower patients. Check it out!
Thomas Savidge retweeted
To meet those horrendous Medi-Cal work requirements being imposed by the "One Big Ugly Bill", beneficiaries will have to work no more than 34 hours in one month out of any six. They can also study, train, volunteer, or lie about doing so. californiapolicycenter.org/t…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Some day (maybe soon) the shrinking Dem-majority states are going to have big pension and budget problems. When they inevitably ask for a bailout, Congress should emphatically say "No!" nationalreview.com/2026/09/a… (right, @thomas_savidge?)
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.”
“If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.”
Thomas Savidge retweeted
You think affordability is bad, wait till you get to unavailability."
Duke professor @RichardSalsman3 tells AIER's @DrPaulMueller what price controls really do.
Full episode: aier.org/podcast/the-40-tril…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
Oren Cass says that the Middletown steel plant is evidence of "tariffs working the way they are supposed to" and tells others to "learn to read." Ironically, his own sources do not support that claim. Maybe he should take his own advice.
My latest in @rc_markets:
realclearmarkets.com/article…
Thomas Savidge retweeted
The $40 Trillion Question: Can America Escape Its Debt Trap? The government is spending more on interest payments than on national defense. How did America get here? And why do politicians keep spending more than they collect in taxes? On this episode of The Economist Next Door, host @DrPaulMueller
is joined by AIER Research Fellow @thomas_savidge
and Duke University professor @RichardSalsman3
to explore the political economy of government debt. They examine how excessive borrowing affects inflation, interest rates, affordability, and economic growth; why neither tariffs nor faster growth are likely to solve the problem on their own. The conversation also explores why both political parties have incentives to perpetuate deficits, whether bond markets can force fiscal discipline, and what reforms might help put government finances on a more sustainable path. Is a debt crisis inevitable, or can America change course before the costs become even harder to ignore?
The $40 Trillion Question: Can America Escape Its Debt Trap?
The government is spending more on interest payments than on national defense. How did America get here? And why do politicians keep spending more than they collect in taxes?
On this episode of The Economist Next Door, host @DrPaulMueller is joined by AIER Research Fellow @thomas_savidge and Duke University professor @RichardSalsman3 to explore the political economy of government debt. They examine how excessive borrowing affects inflation, interest rates, affordability, and economic growth; why neither tariffs nor faster growth are likely to solve the problem on their own.
The conversation also explores why both political parties have incentives to perpetuate deficits, whether bond markets can force fiscal discipline, and what reforms might help put government finances on a more sustainable path. Is a debt crisis inevitable, or can America change course before the costs become even harder to ignore?
While the federal budget process may look orderly (albeit elaborate) on paper, in practice it's a mess. @Dave_Hebert's @aier explainer helps make sense of it & how it contributes to our present predicament.
aier.org/article/how-the-fed…
ALT The federal budget process is elaborate in its design, improvisational in its implementation, and largely silent about most of the money Congress spends. Understanding this process helps clarify the fiscal dysfunctions that come from Washington.