Tomas McIntee

You think nonsense (answering a different question), I wouldn’t rule out lie (spouting off what he thinks the answer should be if he was a diligent Democrat). In either case, zero on accuracy, and a question most likely asked because in 2024, he claimed to vote “uncommitted.”

Dude said off the cuff that he voted for Kamala Harris in the last presidential primary. Easy to reply quickly and fluidly if you’re not worried about accuracy, he has said a lot of things that do not hold up. Is he a fast-talking guy? Sure. He also spits out nonsense & lies.

I think what I want (Peltola win + AES loss) is the least likely of the four possibilities based on the evidence, but I am not quite out of hopium.

MI polls - even just from supposedly good pollsters - have been all over the place in the general & vastly overestimated AES in the primary. He’s favored by the numbers, but the numbers are shaky.

Hard to bet against Silver. Late-breaking material in MI + AK both relevant in undermining polls, IMO. MI should be a long shot for Republicans tonight by the polls, but I can hope AES loses + Peltola wins even if I don’t think it’s the most likely scenario.

I feel like it should be banally obvious to everyone that she hated his guts all along & reached a tipping point when she realized she had no political future if AES won, meaning she no longer had a reason to bite her tongue. Cenk is spouting unhinged conspiracy theories.

She bit her tongue and fell in line because she thought if she did that, she would still get to play ball in the party. She just stopped believing she had a political future in a party with AES in it, so she is no longer doing the distasteful thing. Simple enough for you?

Some, but I still prefer to know what the unweighted data actually looks like.

Not perfect, but the difference in deltas for Benson-AES on early vote vs E-day vote might be a good ballpark.

With early voting & mail voting, a large amount of the vote is already cast, especially the Democratic vote. This would have been significantly more impactful a week or two ago. Given how late this is, we might be able to tease out a plausible effect size from the E-day deltas.

IMO, we're going to have something like 95% of the same people saying 95% the same things if AES is in the "wins but underperforms" bucket. Speaking cynically, there are always ways to retrospectively come up with reasons why a particular race was unique.

She very diligently fell in line for ~95% of the general election campaign in spite of disagreeing with AES on his #1 issue. I don't think this was inevitable, I think this is what happens when she decided she had no future political career to lose in the event of an AES win.

Yes, you should have. He's a shameless lying sophist. Always has been.

I think you're right about McMorrow-style positions being more durable, especially if the shift in opinion is permanent. Very few things stay bipartisan anymore.

nitter.cf/mean_mystic/status/211… Normal Americans (like McMorrow) will answer "yes" to "does Israel have a right to exist?" even if they have issues with Israel, & it was clearly not McMorrow's #1 priority. Extremists are different, & AES is one.

Israel being under majority support in the general population dates to 2026, Democrats from 2023. Anti-Israel sentiment is concentrated on the far-left + far-right. What's consistent is that most Americans don't consider it their top issue.

Democrats may, in fact, choose the pitch the most passionate pro-Palestinian types out of the tent by 2032, especially if AES loses. This is the most anti-Israel the party has been, and the “Gaza wing” of the party are all pretty much net negatives for the party nationally.

What the Framers had observed is that in Europe, capital cities’ interests were catered to at the expense of the majority living in the periphery, confederations were frequently unequal, & capital city residents had unfair informal leverage over & access to politicians.

20 Democrats is less than a tenth of the party's Congressional delegation, so +1 senator is significant, btw. But it is precisely his views on & prioritization of Middle Eastern politics that have drawn criticism. The health care stuff is old hat and not his top priority.

On Hasan Piker specifically, the NYT has already run many glowing pieces on Hasan Piker (and a few critical ones). If AES wins, some people - probably including several NYT opinion writers - will pronounce Hasan Piker a kingmaker, and his influence with politicians grows.