MetJam

Small Shortwave upper trough will dive South during the next 24 hrs around the Atlantic Ridge with a vorticity filamant associated with it, this will run into the rear of the existing 500mb trough over Central Europe and extend it west a little. This will serve to deepen the boundary layer over the SE of England and East Anglia with an increasing wind, more turbulant cloud base and showers in the SE. Despite the high pressure over Scotland by this time 1044mbs A Dover Strait shower train and Showers into Coastal East Anglia. During Tuesday a further filament of vorticity will run west from Jutland and the flow will veer Easterly over much of the South. Feeling colder in the wind and fog will become more of a CuST problem with a mix of Cu St and breaks leading to some sunshine. By Wednesday a large rex block will have established with 500mb ridge over Scotland and Cut off Low to the south of the block over Biscay. The ridge sinks ESE into Europe thereafter and the vortex will round and move N so threat of showers and rain returning to the SW later in the week into the weekend but beyond that into next week there is great ensemble spread in solutions depending on how developments in the SW Atlantic develop and how much sub tropical moisture surges NE.