Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
People seem to care a lot more when it’s a CEO of a legitimate profit-making enterprise
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Everyone giving Culper Research credit for their short report back in May 2026. Fair.
But let’s not forget this guy who literally gave us this info back in October 2025!!
This is why X is so amazing. The amount of information and the sheer speed in how it is communicated to us normies is willld.
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
The way we were...
I've been wondering why there was such a rush to get the $ANT S-1 filed amidst a brutal sell-off in AI related names. Then I read the filing and it's painfully clear.
$ANT has scaled at a mind-boggling clip up until this point. Yes the company did generate operating cash flow and profits in 2Q26, but that no longer is representative of the business model going forward. With $500B+ of compute cost commitments with $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN and $SPCX and a $161B equipment lease with $AMD, the entire cost structure of this business is now changing under the "Anthropic Direct" initiative.
They're showing you that delivering inference was a structurally high margin business in 2Q26 (50%+ margin). Will it be going forward? Well they're sitting on something that looks like $85-100B in compute commitments ANNUALLY. As a point of reference they spent $5.5B in 2Q26 on compute. Even if they get towards $80B of ARR by year end (which could be optimistic), it's a big hurdle to get to profitability in 2027 unless ARR doubles (or more).
There is a placeholder for October 2026 ARR in the S-1. I cannot think of another single sentence in a SEC filing that will have more of an impact on the fate of capital markets than that one. My guess is everyone in the VC and tech community will up their Claude spend this month for that very reason.
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Just to give you a sense of what a slaughterhouse L/S was seeing today, the Crowded L/S factor pair had the 2nd worse day (by a hair - almost the worst) since Gabe Plotkin was getting run TF over in late Jan 2021 in Gamestop
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
In H1 2026, the most important question was “which stocks are going to be on Leopold’s next 13-F?”
In H2 2026 it’s “which company is going to announce a muse connector next?”
Trade the market that’s in front of you
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Also from me, today:
A Sellas $SLS immunotherapy study, long delayed, will end in failure statnews.com/2026/09/17/sell…
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Best / only investment case for OPEN is mistaken identity (retail buy it when OpenAI goes public)
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
"Mrs. Smith. We have two choices for you. I can prescribe a drug that improved kidney function over two years. The injection is a bit more painful but you only have to do it once a month."
"Your other option, Mrs. Smith, is a similar drug that stabilized kidney function over two years. There was actually a very small loss of kidney function. On the other hand, it's a weekly injection that hurts less."
"Which do you want to try first?"
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
One of the biggest lessons from my buy-side days is that fund managers love buying simple stories, driving the multiple higher.
The opposite is also true, complexity doesn’t sell and sum-of-the-parts stories stay at a discount.
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Put together some longer-form thoughts on the AI Data Center Developers (aka Powered Shell Providers).. Key takeaways from Q2 earnings, what's driving recent weakness, and why I like the setup here with a number of catalysts that might reignite interest in these names.
$APLD $CIFR $CLSK $CORZ $GLXY $HUT $RIOT $WULF
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Just means price going to go down, HF are underwriting OE margins of 30%+ into 2030 vs. EM bringing on capacity in 12-24 months. Terminal Value is going to get impaired.
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Perhaps because there is no valuation support as it a land clearance firm trading at a tech unicorn valuation?!
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
Long ago, I was a "bottleneck bro" myself, churning out wildly bullish "buys" on data center "titans."
Having witnessed the subsequent bust, count me as a nonbeliever this time around.
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
It’s definitely a difficult situation for $CLBT today. The CEO change and lower revenue guidance has hit the stock hard. But I don’t think the situation is as bad as the 30% drop suggests.
The big issue is that 26’ was supposed to be a strong year driven by new products. Instead, we are seeing a setback. The new guidance is roughly where Street consensus was before Q4, so this is a reset, but not an huge one.
$CLBT said the miss was mainly due to 4 large cloud deals being delayed by new foreign-entity permit requirements at US federal agencies and in EU.
The uncertainty comes from the Inseyets product. Conversions are on track at 65% of the installed base, but the price and footprint uplift is below plan. This has pushed US state and local growth from the mid-20s to just under 20%.
I listened to an expert call from early August that highlighted some concerns:
- Sales quota attainment of only ~50-70%
- Slow adoption of Guardian & Pathfinder
- More competition from Magnet Forensics & PenLink
- Increasing discounting
- Customer budgets remain tight
- Long-term risk if Apple/Android security advances faster than Cellebrite’s ability to extract data
The CEO change looks bad, but management says the transition was already planned. Ramji was hired in May with the understanding that he would eventually succeed Hogan.
I think the market reaction is an overreaction. 15% would have been a more than reasonable.
Quizteam Lagarde retweeted
🚨 Andrew Tate's self-snitching is being used against him in court AGAIN
The DOJ is now using Andrew Tate’s own old tweets against him in arguing that he is a flight risk and should remain in jail.
They point to years of Tate bragging about multiple passports, false identities, hiding assets and evading authorities.
So here is a thread of Andrew Tate’s incredible self-snitching now coming back to haunt him 🧵
