Jacky retweeted
Replying to @dampedspring @pepperc22
3 days isn't an 'investment' that's a trade........
Jacky retweeted
I was wrong. Thesis is completely busted, so I cut my Natty long.
Nature just isn’t playing ball for the 25/26 season. Natty’s always been one of my biggest moneymakers, but this past year has been a total grind.
Sure, the trolls might come for me, but I’d rather own my L than hide it. Always better to be upfront.
Based on the met setup, it was the right call at the time. U don't short Natty when u see near-perfect blocking and teleconnections—that’s just suicide.
Anyone saying otherwise is just a hypocrite playing the hindsight bias game. From a met and R/R standpoint, it was a trade worth taking.
Bummer. Mother Nature really knows how to keep me humble.
#natgas
Checking my feed and seeing the Natty bears getting loud again.
But here’s what I’m seeing:
1) Most models are struggling to align their 10-15 day outlooks with the 5-10 day trends. We’ve seen those bearish 10-15 day forecasts flip and spike the HDDs way too many times lately.
2) We’re all watching the teleconnections right? ECMWF, GFS ensembles, and even the ECMWF AI model are screaming stubborn -AO/-EPO/-NAO. That’s a textbook high-latitude blocking + cold air dump pattern.
3) The back-end pressure maps back this up. A classic blocking pattern is locked in, and that Alaskan ridge is looking beefy. The pattern itself looks pretty mature.
4) The -EPO placement is perfect. If the ridge is too far east, it just chills the West; too far west, and the cold air delivery gets weak. Right now, it’s sitting in the sweet spot for a massive North American cold dump.
5) Seeing continuous negative Height Anomalies from central Canada down to the Eastern US. This isn’t some disconnected cutoff—it’s a polar trough + subtropical interaction. The jet is tilted hard NW to SE, a classic cold air setup.
6) The flow over the North Atlantic isn’t moving straight; it’s wavy. EPS/AIFS are showing a slow exit for the Eastern trough. This lines up with the -NAO signal, meaning once the cold hits, it’s not leaving anytime soon.
Bottom line: This is a textbook -AO/-EPO/-NAO combo with high-latitude blocking fully baked in. The mid-January event is looking very real.
When the ensemble averages align like this, it’s not a question of "if," but "how hard."
The risk/reward here is looking pretty asymmetric. Watch out for a massive back-end model flip.
Lastly, Happy New Year!
#oott #natgas
Jacky retweeted
I'm seeing quite a bit of comment about this, so I want to make a couple of points.
I'm not owed eternal agreement from any actor who once played a character I created. The idea is as ludicrous as me checking with the boss I had when I was twenty-one for what opinions I should hold these days.
Emma Watson and her co-stars have every right to embrace gender identity ideology. Such beliefs are legally protected, and I wouldn't want to see any of them threatened with loss of work, or violence, or death, because of them.
However, Emma and Dan in particular have both made it clear over the last few years that they think our former professional association gives them a particular right - nay, obligation - to critique me and my views in public. Years after they finished acting in Potter, they continue to assume the role of de facto spokespeople for the world I created.
When you've known people since they were ten years old it's hard to shake a certain protectiveness. Until quite recently, I hadn't managed to throw off the memory of children who needed to be gently coaxed through their dialogue in a big scary film studio. For the past few years, I've repeatedly declined invitations from journalists to comment on Emma specifically, most notably on the Witch Trials of JK Rowling. Ironically, I told the producers that I didn't want her to be hounded as the result of anything I said.
The television presenter in the attached clip highlights Emma's 'all witches' speech, and in truth, that was a turning point for me, but it had a postscript that hurt far more than the speech itself. Emma asked someone to pass on a handwritten note from her to me, which contained the single sentence 'I'm so sorry for what you're going through' (she has my phone number). This was back when the death, rape and torture threats against me were at their peak, at a time when my personal security measures had had to be tightened considerably and I was constantly worried for my family's safety. Emma had just publicly poured more petrol on the flames, yet thought a one line expression of concern from her would reassure me of her fundamental sympathy and kindness.
Like other people who've never experienced adult life uncushioned by wealth and fame, Emma has so little experience of real life she's ignorant of how ignorant she is. She'll never need a homeless shelter. She's never going to be placed on a mixed sex public hospital ward. I'd be astounded if she's been in a high street changing room since childhood. Her 'public bathroom' is single occupancy and comes with a security man standing guard outside the door. Has she had to strip off in a newly mixed-sex changing room at a council-run swimming pool? Is she ever likely to need a state-run rape crisis centre that refuses to guarantee an all-female service? To find herself sharing a prison cell with a male rapist who's identified into the women's prison?
I wasn't a multimillionaire at fourteen. I lived in poverty while writing the book that made Emma famous. I therefore understand from my own life experience what the trashing of women's rights in which Emma has so enthusiastically participated means to women and girls without her privileges.
The greatest irony here is that, had Emma not decided in her most recent interview to declare that she loves and treasures me - a change of tack I suspect she's adopted because she's noticed full-throated condemnation of me is no longer quite as fashionable as it was - I might never have been this honest.
Adults can't expect to cosy up to an activist movement that regularly calls for a friend's assassination, then assert their right to the former friend's love, as though the friend was in fact their mother. Emma is rightly free to disagree with me and indeed to discuss her feelings about me in public - but I have the same right, and I've finally decided to exercise it.
“I think she’s going to find that you can’t sit on the fence... The real win is when ordinary people can say these things.”
@DerryBanShee speaks to @joshxhowie about Emma Watson’s comments about JK Rowling.
📺 youtu.be/r2OGEITYe2Y
Jacky retweeted
The Charlie Kirk tribute at the Kennedy Center.
What you see:
People dressed up, waiting in line patiently, showing grace and respect.
What you don't see:
Rioting, looting, yelling, violence.
Jacky retweeted
🚨While Canadians pay record for public sector workers, the public sector workers are watching record Netflix (and other streaming) - at work.
It got so bad they are banning all streaming services at work.
The leading departments that binge TV at work are the Department of National Defence and Public Services and Procurement which got a scathing report on mismanagement from the Auditor General.
The level of mismanagement is astronomical.
Jacky retweeted
Six months ago on the left
This week on the right
I look forward to the October cover
Jacky retweeted
The spectacle of hundreds of tokens nosediving as liquidity rushes into Trump Coin is a great example of how valuations in crypto mean absolutely nothing.
An abundance of tokens led to the faulty belief in an abundance of capital.
Jacky retweeted
Some bond traders are betting that the relentless selloff in Treasuries will soon lose momentum, in part because of questions around how President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will take shape trib.al/NOwsPJb
Jacky retweeted
Bold prediction: The unemployment rate falls below 4% in the next payroll report.
Incomes seem to be accelerating.
@wabuffo for the tax receipts data.
Jacky retweeted
Interesting divergence playing out in net positioning on US 2-year note futures (CFTC data)….
AM's record LONG, Hedge Funds record SHORT. Yep, basis trades can distort leverage positioning, but still....👀































