Algorithmic long/short S&P 500 trading | Cycle updates & insights | Author https://nitter.cf/t.co/OWUByiUiPT
Berkshire, United Kimgdom
Joined February 2013
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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle is real - and it's one of the most powerful tools for timing the S&P500.
I'm Kerry Balenthiran, author of The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle, and I run an algorithmic long/short system designed around proven cycle phases.
Follow @TheCyclesTrader for:
- Regular cycle position updates
- High level long/short bias on $SPX
- Historical pattern analysis
- Data driven market insights
The cycle never sleeps!
(Always do your own research)
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
⚠️ Biggest 5-day sell-off in the iShares Equity Momentum ETF (MTUM) since the Mar-20 COVID crash. 2nd biggest on record
$SPX
If you say the top is coming in the next year or two you get 100k views, as everyone likes to be clever and predict the next crash.
If you say it’s coming in 9 years (or 22 years as I did back in 2013), then crickets 😂
Will this happen?
A) No
B) NO
🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!!
Something catastrophic just happened behind the scenes.
99% of people will lose everything.
When markets open next week, this won't be just another dip.
If you want to be in the TOP 1%, you MUST read this before November 2.
Stocks will dump.
Metals will dump.
Bitcoin and crypto will dump even harder.
The warning signs are becoming impossible to ignore.
→ China is dumping $550 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries
→ Japan is dumping $5.2 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries
→ China's AI stocks have crashed by over 40%
→ The Strait of Hormuz remains CLOSED
→ U.S. Treasury yields are SURGING
→ Inflation is OUT OF CONTROL
→ The Fed is injecting BILLIONS into the economy to prevent another crash
These are NOT separate problems.
They are interconnected issues putting enormous pressure on the entire financial system.
Japan is selling.
China is selling.
And every dollar of debt they sell must find a new buyer.
To attract those buyers, the market must offer higher yields.
That is why Treasury yields are climbing.
People are demanding greater compensation for the risks of holding U.S. government debt.
And this is where the dangerous cycle accelerates:
→ Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries weakens
→ The market struggles to absorb the growing supply of government debt
→ Treasury yields rise to attract buyers
→ Higher yields increase U.S. government borrowing costs
→ Rising borrowing costs pressure stocks, real estate, crypto, and virtually every other asset
→ Energy disruptions drive oil prices higher and fuel inflation
→ Persistent inflation keeps upward pressure on Treasury yields
And China's market crash adds another layer of risk.
When investors lose confidence in AI stocks, the bubble starts to pop EVERYWHERE, not just in China.
Capital retreats.
And the shock spreads into global markets and other risk assets.
This is happening while the broader financial system is already under pressure.
Then there are the Fed's liquidity injections.
The Fed is trying to support the markets and prevent a China-style crash.
But they do NOT eliminate inflation.
The conflict between inflation control and financial stability intensifies.
More liquidity can support asset prices.
Rising inflation puts pressure on interest rates.
Higher yields undermine bonds, stocks, real estate, and other sensitive assets.
This is the contradiction people can't afford to ignore.
Most people will focus on the stock market and wait for the crash to begin.
But the bond market, inflation data, liquidity conditions, and collapsing risk appetite are already flashing warning signs.
You must pay attention NOW.
I've spent more than 12 years studying financial markets and calling market tops and bottoms.
If you want to survive the 2026-2027 cycle, follow and turn on notifications.
You'll want to know what's happening BEFORE the market reacts.
It’s Halloween 🎃 which is very appropriate for my Oct update.
I’m down -14.9% vs SPX which is up 10.7% 😱
Bitcoin is better, I’m down -24% vs Bitcoin down -38% since I started trading it nearly 13 months ago.
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
I have never considered this, but this is a perfect illustration of the 105-year cycle of RESM theory. The 105-year cycle is composed of three 35 year cycles, each having their manic top ~25 years into their individual cycles, with the last one being the biggest. Each one of those is modeled perfectly as a 5 wave Elliot wave count. I don’t know EW well, but is there a special name for a 5-wave count where wave 5 is by far the largest?
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
I count 5 waves up completing in 2035 after 103 years for DJIA. Then, if it corrects from 215,000 top it would take a move half way down the entire 103 year structure, which would be at around 25,000 by 2037. A crash of below 90%. Depression style...
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
Professional poker player Phil Ivey won $9.6 million at the Borgata. The casino paid him, then sued to get it back. At London’s Crockfords, he won another £7.7 million. They refused to pay.
In the video below, Ivey says his job is to play the game, find a weakness in the casino and use it to win. He calls the casino his opponent and points out that it spends millions of dollars protecting its games.
He wanted a specific brand of cards, a Cantonese-speaking dealer and the same decks reused. The casinos agreed. His playing partner, Cheung Yin Sun, asked the dealer to rotate certain cards, presenting it as a matter of luck.
The cards had tiny differences along their backs. Once high-value cards faced one way and the others faced the opposite way, those differences helped identify what was coming next.
Ivey never marked the cards. The dealer handled them. But the casino didn’t understand what those requests were doing to the odds.
He called it an advantage. The casinos called it cheating. In 2017, the UK Supreme Court ruled against him: persuading the dealer to arrange the cards crossed the line.
The casino had approved his requests while expecting to win. Ivey knew something about its own cards that it didn’t.
Was he cheating, or should a casino know its own game before accepting someone’s money?
September was a terrible month for me. My index trading account is -5% ytd vs SPX up 12.8%. My account has swung from -8% in Feb to +22% in May to where I am now. That’s leveraged swing trading for you!
Bitcoin trading is going better. I am -16% since I started trading it in Oct 25 vs btc down -32%. I was -55% not that long ago so I’m happy that btc bounced from its bottom.
