Investor in pursuit of freedom. Sharing my investing journey & market views. Not Financial Advice.
Joined April 2018
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🧵 Thread and summary of the accounts I've followed that presented or discussed/mentioned the thesis of a final grand top in the 2030s, followed by a lost decade, instead of the common narratives of:
🔻 "AI is already the biggest Bubble ever" / "the biggest crash" / "a recession worse than 1929" happening soon, not years from now
🔻 the grand finale top happening around 2028 or before the 2030s
The accounts are listed below, and in the replies you'll find several of their charts and posts for reference.
🔹@ChifoiCristian
🔹@RESMcycles
🔹@CryptoCycleGod
🔹@TheCyclesTrader
🔹@SethCL now posting on @GroupFinom
You can bookmark this thread, as it is meant to be a reference post we can easily come back to in the future, instead of searching for posts individually in the X information chaos. I might keep adding charts and posts in the replies as they are published in the future.
You can also share it if you want to raise awareness of this thesis and the accounts above, some of which deserve many more followers, in my view.
And if this thesis eventually plays out, I want this thread to serve as a record of who was discussing it years in advance. Credit where credit is due!
Beautifully squeezed on a Sunday, almost touching the 200d.
730m$ of long liquidated in the last hour.
$NBIS Chart & position update
🔹Added at $123.24
🔹Average $156.82
🔹uP&L ~-17.4%
OV Markets retweeted
$ETH Ethereum
After the Copper/Gold ratio, another way to look at the potentially coming Ethereum expansion phase is through the ISM PMI.
Historically, Ethereum's strongest expansion phases have coincided with the ISM PMI crossing above 50 and continuing to rise toward the 60+ area.
We can observe quickly the below:
🔹ISM PMI below 50: Economic contraction, generally associated with weaker ETH performance.
🔹ISM PMI above 50 and rising: Economic expansion, historically coinciding with strong ETH rallies.
🔹ISM PMI approaching or exceeding 60: Historically associated with Ethereum's major cycle topping areas.
And now, after peaking nearly five years ago and spending most of the past three years below 50, the ISM PMI is back above 50 and trending higher.
Have a great Sunday!
Copper/Gold ratio vs Ethereum $ETH
Both going into an expansion phase after a contraction of ~4.5 years, would not surprise me.
OV Markets retweeted
*check structure
*checks sentiment
Many such cases bitcoin:native
"BTC still hasn't made a higher high so I'm still bearish"
Maybe you see this structure presented on X or YT, and it makes sense if you judge it logically, mathematically, but people forget the market is psychological
A higher high above May highs would actually not be bullish short term and would catch all of the guys waiting for confirmation into a bigger discount as they get their mathematical confirmation
And this is actually my main scenario for September atm. If this is happening, watch them flip flop again and becoming bearish because "it was just a fake out"
Take the highs, take the lows, roller coast everyone, then leave them behind. Again.
- Bear Hitler
$ETH Ethereum
After the Copper/Gold ratio, another way to look at the potentially coming Ethereum expansion phase is through the ISM PMI.
Historically, Ethereum's strongest expansion phases have coincided with the ISM PMI crossing above 50 and continuing to rise toward the 60+ area.
We can observe quickly the below:
🔹ISM PMI below 50: Economic contraction, generally associated with weaker ETH performance.
🔹ISM PMI above 50 and rising: Economic expansion, historically coinciding with strong ETH rallies.
🔹ISM PMI approaching or exceeding 60: Historically associated with Ethereum's major cycle topping areas.
And now, after peaking nearly five years ago and spending most of the past three years below 50, the ISM PMI is back above 50 and trending higher.
Have a great Sunday!
Copper/Gold ratio vs Ethereum $ETH
Both going into an expansion phase after a contraction of ~4.5 years, would not surprise me.
Remember this?
This speculative scenario was actually not that far off for Bitcoin.
Let see where we end up confirming a Higher Low.
#Bitcoin My ideal speculative scenario, in the context of my two recent posts (linked in the comments for reference).
1⃣Push higher and print a HH around ~$90k.
2⃣October CPI coming Hot
3⃣A solid 20%+ correction, with Bitcoin wicking right into the 200d SMA and Ichimoku Base Line.
4⃣Find support at that level, establish a strong HL, and form the right shoulder of a potential iH&S pattern.
5⃣Resume the upward move.
In an ideal world, that's exactly what I would like to see.
So we will most probably not get it 🤣 But I can at least share my wishes.
OV Markets retweeted
Employee compensation is 59.6% of US personal income, down from about 73% around 1970.
Transfer payments, dividends, and rental income now make up 31.1%, more than double their share in the 1960s.
A weaker job market hits total household income less than it used to.
OV Markets retweeted
And then, when Bitcoin actually delivers a solid backtest of previous topping areas (monthly wicks), around the 200 week SMA and the 0.618 Fib retracement, with a weekly bullish divergence from oversold levels, extreme fear and massive realized losses…
People still expect lower prices.
Go figure.
OV Markets retweeted
Over the last three months, 25.9% of the unemployed found a job each month, up from 24.2% three months ago.
The share of employed people losing their jobs is 0.92%, lower than in 95% of months since 1990.
Hiring is improving slightly. Layoffs remain very low.
#Macro Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs Created)
I don't understand why it's so hard on this platform to acknowledge when someone with opposing views is sometimes correct. Is it an ego thing?
Not only has the 12 month SMA used by @HenrikZeberg stabilised, but it has now even started turning higher, without crossing below zero.
Until this changes, it's simply an observation and a fact.
Why is it so hard to admit?
$BTC Bitcoin monthly
🔸 Monthly DSS Bressert bullish cross ✅
🔸 10 month SMA reclaimed ✅
🔸 Downtrend broken ✅
$BTC Bitcoin Monthly Chart
All right, fear is spreading everywhere, especially across the stock market, and unsurprisingly, we're seeing calls for Bitcoin's bottom not being in resurface again ("if the Nasdaq can go lower than its July low, why not Bitcoin" etc.)
But if we look objectively at the monthly chart, we still have plenty of signals suggesting the bottom is already in. And I don't think these last 5 red weeks have changed anything at the moment.
Especially for the cycle people following me, we have the 3 major confirmations most of us have been looking for:
🔸 Monthly DSS Bressert bullish cross
🔸 10 month SMA reclaimed
🔸 Downtrend broken
And on top of that, we also have:
🔸 A Higher High has been made
🔸 Inverted Hammer and Morning Star patterns at the bottom
🔸 Fisher Transform bullish cross
🔸 Bottom at the Power Law Q1%
🔸 Bottom at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
I mean, that's quite a lot of signals pointing in the same direction.
So yes I get it, red days like this are scary and it's easy to be caught in it, but on the bigger picture nothing changed so far. Even retesting the SMA 10 month would not be unusual, we have made in 2023 and can do it again. If we start breaking/revert some of these signs then we can obviously reassess, but for now it's not the case.
Just my view.
$ETH Ethereum is, so far, making a very similar move to the one we saw from the April 2025 low.
$ETH Ethereum log chart observation
April 25 Bottom
🔹+108% move up to $2880 from the $1383 low
🔹-26% retracement around the 0.382 Fib
June 26 Bottom
🔹+86% move up to $2807 from the $1505 low
🔹So far -22% retracement around the 0.382 Fib
Nothing unusual.
OV Markets retweeted
No idea why, but there was a glitch on the chart posted, the SPX current level was not accurate for some reason. Not much changed but noticed the glitch so reposting it to be fully accurate and to show properly the current dip.
OV Markets retweeted
Below on the subject that FED rate hikes should be automatically bad for the market. Recommending to check @ChifoiCristian posts and videos on that subject.
Hi, not sure how you came to that conclusion, probably not that simple. Lower recession risks are ultimately better for markets. Also, rate hikes do not automatically mean markets will crash. See the various posts and videos from @ChifoiCristian, who is trying to raise awareness about this common misconception. Chart below inspired from him.
nitter.cf/ChifoiCristian/status/…
