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The AI bubble is about to implode.
The evidence is below.
And it is going to get very messy.
Sam Altman just ran out of buyers at his price, and the AI bubble is GAME OVER.
The money that carried this entire boom is pulling back, and the tech bros buying this dip are about to learn what every homebuyer learned in 2006.
Watch this TERRIFIC video from @JayMartinBC comparing AI to the housing bubble.
His point is that the housing bust really started in 2006, while prices were still at record highs, because borrowers paid off their old loans by refinancing against a higher price. When the gains shrank from the mid-teens to single digits, the refinancing stopped working and the loans started going bad.
OpenAI runs on the same engine. It loses billions every year and pays yesterday's bills by raising money at a higher price, so the only number that matters is how much higher each new price comes in.
Every time OpenAI has been priced since early 2024, the new mark came in 67% to 91% above the one before it.
This month they went out to raise $30B at $1.4T, a 64% markup, and investors pushed back on the price, so it came down to $1.25T. Then on Friday we learned some of them cut what they were willing to put in, so the round shrank by a third to about $20B, and the first close is expected to come in below even that. One person familiar with the round said every earlier raise was a frenzy and this one landed with a thud.
The markup just fell to 47% with a third less money behind it. The valuation is still going up while the speed is breaking, and that's how housing looked in 2006.
What worries me most is who they go after next:
OpenAI first pitched $1.4T to private wealth clients, and even they pushed back. Now the reports say the gap could be filled later with another offering to wealthy individuals at $1.25T. In 45 years I've watched the individual investor end up as the last buyer in every bubble, and that's who they're coming for now.
OpenAI is also the customer at the end of the entire AI chain. Oracle's backlog leans on a $300B OpenAI contract and CoreWeave has up to $22.4B, and both borrowed heavily to build for it. When the end buyer struggles to raise money, the suppliers who borrowed against its promises feel it first.
And the collateral is WORSE this time.
A house in 2006 was still a house 10 years later, but the chips inside these data centers are outdated in about 3 years while the debt used to buy them runs far longer.
The market is already pricing it. On Friday the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% for its worst day since June, and the chip index dropped 7.2%.
This is why we shorted CoreWeave at $107 and Oracle at $189.97, and why we pressed the CoreWeave short at $81.58 earlier this month. CoreWeave is now down 49% from our entry and Oracle is down 31%. All 12 of our scored shorts are winners, and our long/short spread is 70%.
And don't buy this dip. I'd trim anything that depends on OpenAI paying its bills, and I'd own gold and businesses that generate real cash today. If you want the names I'm investing in, join The Noble Update.
IT'S GAME OVER
Are you listening?
Democracy for Sale in a landmark win.
🔴 EXCLUSIVE: After *five-year* legal battle, Democracy for Sale has forced the government to reveal who referred firms to lucrative Covid PPE ‘VIP lane’ for 'politically connected'
30+ senior Tories are named, plus ex Duchess of York, and many more 🧵
democracyforsale.substack.co…
The effectiveness of Russia’s disinformation and malign influence operations is not adequately reported on.
@DecodingTrolls spells it out.
⚡️Exporting chaos, in russia’s own words
The blueprint for all of it is in russia’s own words, if only we would listen.
In March 2024 @InformNapalm published a document, seen by Putin, hacked from the email of a minion at the INION institute of the russian Academy of Sciences.
The chairman of the Duma had sent it up to Putler on 30 November 2023.
It names the problem at home as social entropy, which it glosses as chaos.
Turning.
Its Righting remedy is this.
“To continue the policy of exporting chaos abroad, that is, defusing internal tension through external expansion.”
This is russian innovation.
To counter the turning of their own country, they export turning to other countries.
So they can show their own people how turned the other countries are, and how much luckier they are to live in russia (where you have a chance of almost certain death if you are sent to the front in Ukraine).
Exporting chaos, and turning, as policy.
That’s a very russian idea of how to right matters in their own State.
The retail face of that policy was Surkov, who began as Khodorkovsky’s bodyguard and made himself an ideologue.
The strategists behind him were plainer.
In 2021 Ilnitsky, adviser to the russian ministry of defence, said what russia’s mental wars are for.
Their purpose is to destroy the self-awareness and change the mental and civilisational basis of the enemy’s society. He allotted ten to fifteen years to rebooting a community’s historical self-awareness, its education and its basic values.
Think what turning MAGA has done to America.
Think what that National Rallye man was saying, that France is humiliated.
Surkov transferred the mental matrix to foreign policy.
The matrix is maternal. It is what bears you, the womb.
The mental matrix, the archetypes of national consciousness.
So everywhere you see these patriotic movements, supported by russia, they don the clothes of the nation. Ireland for the Irish. The National Rally in France. Alternative für Deutschland. MAGA and its fake American patriotism.
Surkov admitted that work has been done with mental spaces, shaped by what he called the mythical environment and the relief of collective historical memory.
Like a criminal, Surkov cannot stop talking about his own methods.
Hacking every country’s archetypes of national consciousness yields what he himself calls fig leaves. Georgian Dream. Dr- in dream.
They reveal it in the name.
The russian security services create a so-called patriotic movement in Georgia, which wins power on a pro-Europe, anti-corruption ticket. As soon as it has power it bans parties, cancels universities and elects a head of state in an unlawfully constituted parliament.
Brexit. MAGA. Ireland for the Irish.
In France, the riot and the party that offers to end it.
Create the spectacle, the turning, then amplify the turning. The two are inextricably linked.
Revolution elsewhere is russia and now sadly MAGA’s means of righting their own movements.
Of turning the world upside down:
Battling Archetypes is available wherever you get your podcasts and here: disinfolklore.net/p/exportin…
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Wow!!!!!!!!!
Dear MAGA, since you're always asking me, "What laws has Trump violated. Be specific."
HERE IS A COMPREHENSIVE LIST
1) The Principle of Non-refoulement is an international law prohibiting a state from returning a person to a place where they would face a real risk of persecution, torture, or other serious harm.
SEE - 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, which the U.S ratified in 1968.
2) The Convention Against Torture (CAT) prohibits the removal of any person to a country where they would more likely than not be subjected to torture.
Signed by the U.S.: April 18, 1988
Ratified by the U.S.: October 21, 1994
Enforced in the U.S.: November 20, 1994
3) The Refugee Act of 1980 prohibits the return of a refugee to a country where their life or freedom would be threatened.
4) INA § 241(b)(3) states that the U.S. cannot remove an alien to a country if it's determines that the alien's life or freedom would be threatened in that country.
5) Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998 (FARRA) - codified 8 U.S.C. § 1231 - states the U.S can NOT expel, extradite, or otherwise effect the involuntary return of any person to a country in which there are substantial grounds for believing the person would be in danger of being subjected to torture.
6) Article I, Section 4, Clause 1 (Election Clause) by attempting to control federal elections and intimidate State and election officials.
7) Article I, Section 8 - Congress' authority to create and/or abolish government agencies/offices - by creating DOGE via Executive Order and by dismantling government agencies WITHOUT Congressional approval or involvement.
8) Article I, Section 9 , Clause 8 - the Emoluments Clause - prohibits any person holding a government office from accepting any present, emolument , office, or title from any "King, Prince, or foreign State ," without congressional consent.
9) 1st Amendment free speech clause by silencing the scientific community - via Executive Order - and by trying to silence the media by kicking out certain media from the press room and by filing frivolous lawsuits.
10) 5th Amendment for violating due process rights of immigrants. Which is confirmed by the U.S Supreme Court in two separate rulings.
11) 10th Amendment by sending ICE agents into sanctuary cities.
Under Printz v. United State, the Federal government "may neither issue directives requiring the States to address particular problems, nor command the States’ officers, or those of their political subdivisions, to administer or enforce a federal regulatory program." — thus, protecting sanctuary cities.
12) 14th Amendment Section 1 - the birthright citizenship clause - by signing an Executive Order attempting to end the protections of birthright citizenship.
13) 5 USC § 403 by illegally firing 18 Inspectors General's from the Defense Department, State Department, Health and Human Services Department and the Department of Labor.
14) 8 USC § 1373, the courts have ruled that this law cannot compel local law enforcement to act as immigration agents.
15) 18 U.S.C. § 4 – Misprision of Felony, by "having knowledge of the actual commission of a felony" in regards to covering up the Epstein files.
16) 18 U.S. Code § 401 for blatantly ignoring and disobeying an immigration Court ruling, a U.S. District Court ruling, and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling. @realDonaldTrump and this regime have blatantly defied, disobeyed, and ignored FIVE federal court orders, thus far.
17) 18 U.S.C. § 1505 by "willfully withholds, misrepresents, removes from any place, conceals, covers up, destroys, mutilates, alters, or by other means falsifies any documentary material" in regards to the Epstein files.
18) The Posse Comitatus Act by deploying active military armed forces on U.S. soil.
19) The War Powers Resolution Act by NOT consulting with Congress nor meeting the threshold in order to bomb Iran without consulting Congress.
This list does NOT include violations of international laws.
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These are the "American patriots" and "concerned Europeans" you're talking to on X.
There's no reason to argue with computers. Just block them all and move on.
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It was exactly the same under Sunak and Starmer in Britain.
Biden officials sat "in windowless rooms without their phones, incapable of reaching a formal conclusion that a single war crime was committed in Gaza while the world watched war crimes live-streamed on theirs." trib.al/tDK16jy
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🚨🇺🇸🇵🇸 𝗝𝗙𝗞 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘀: Did you know 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗝𝗙𝗞 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱, he was working on a now-forgotten initiative called the 𝗝𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗽𝗵 𝗝𝗼𝗵𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻 which supported the 𝗣𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻?
And the timeline gets more interesting.
On 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭, 𝟭𝟵𝟲𝟯, Kennedy's adviser confronted an Israeli diplomat over Palestinian refugees, Israel's secretive nuclear program, and growing tensions between the two governments.
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬 𝗡𝗘𝗫𝗧 𝗗𝗔𝗬, 𝗝𝗙𝗞 𝗪𝗔𝗦 𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗗 𝗜𝗡 𝗗𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗔𝗦.
The forgotten proposal would have allowed Palestinians displaced during the 1948 Nakba to request repatriation to their homes or receive compensation for their lost property.
Israel's government fiercely 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻.
Declassified files reveal Israeli diplomatic pressure, warnings of domestic repercussions for Kennedy, and growing American frustration over Israel's efforts to derail the initiative.
And just 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗗𝗔𝗬𝗦 before his assassination, Kennedy personally saw a classified memorandum warning of renewed Israeli pressure over the repatriation of Palestinian refugees.
What exactly was happening between 𝗝𝗙𝗞'𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 and 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹 in the final days of his presidency?
Here's what the U.S. government's own documents reveal. 🧵
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This authoritarian incarnation of the Labour Party is beyond repulsive; its tactics of suppressing peaceful protest have crossed over into the utterly ludicrous and completely unacceptable.
NEW: the Met issues update threatening “enforcement action” against anyone who provides “logistical support” (water?? snacks?? a foil blanket?) to peaceful protesters at the @defendourjuries demo outside the US embassy tomorrow news.met.police.uk/news/met-…
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Getting close to 15 years covering the British media. The shocking development is…
So many devious and dishonest people in British media, even OUTSIDE the right wing press
The awful friends of Andrea Jenkyns.
Who goes from terrible, to even worse.
Hi @andreajenkyns, why did you delete the video of yourself with Paolo Zampoli talking about how you had just had lunch together?
Is it because you realised the House Judiciary Committee investigation stated he was “an active participant” in Jeffery Epstein's alleged sex trafficking?
Or was it that the FBI said he arranged a model’s visa before she was recruited to give a massage at Epstein’s house, where Epstein allegedly raped her?
Or is it the civil lawsuit he’s facing over the alleged drugging and raping of Victoria Drake?
And you think he’s “amazing”.
That’s a lot of promises you’re making there, Mayor.
Why did they try to hide the Covid VIP lane?
Because it proved that politicians, including Jenrick, Raab, Gove, and Hancock profited from actions promoting firms that failed to deliver POE.
While competent firms were denied access to the “VIP lane”.
Causing many more to die.
🚨 The full Covid PPE 'VIP lane' list is FINALLY out after a 5-year legal battle.
£1 BILLION in taxpayer cash was completely WASTED on useless PPE.
VIP lane firms were 10x more likely to win contracts.
The unmasked referrers:
Matt Hancock: 27 companies
Dominic Raab: Referred a toy maker with 1 employee
Michael Gove: Referred a donor who got a £164M contract
Sarah Ferguson (Duchess of York): Referred a dissolved pharma firm
4 New former Ministers Exposed: Raab, Buckland, Hart, and Robert Jenrick of ReformUk
The well-connected got rich. The public paid the price and we are still paying it till today. Credit @PeterKGeoghegan
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A classic chart to counter the wisdom of crowds idea. US Americans are absolutely clueless about how common things are. They think over a quarter of Americans are Native Americans, one in five Americans is transgender, over a quarter of the population are Muslim, one in five households earn over half a million dollars. The right answer to all of these questions is 1%. They build their worldview on totally incorrect assumptions towards reality. Data literacy matters.
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We are facing a crisis of impunity. That's why we built The Rule of Law Project — to investigate unlawful conduct by federal officials, and work with state and local prosecutors to hold them to account.
Watch former DOJ prosecutor Mark Blumberg and human rights leader Brad Adams launch this critical accountability initiative on MSNOW with Nicolle Wallace.
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Adriano da Nóbrega, killed in a 2020 shootout with police, ran a murder-for-hire business. A former cop, like many “milícia” members, he was expelled from the force in 2014 over his ties to organized crime. Flávio awarded him a state medal and even took shooting lessons with him.
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3) Back in 2007, as a state lawmaker, Flávio publicly defended the “milícias” — a form of organized crime that emerged in Rio to control territory and charge residents protection fees. His ties to these criminals, especially Adriano da Nóbrega, are still cause for concern.
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Reading posts by foreigners about Brazil, I get the impression that you're not aware of the full extent of the accusations against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, or of the available evidence of his corruption.
So I'd like to kindly invite you to really get to know Flávio. A thread 🧵🇧🇷
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Here is the video of @jandira_feghali, a doctor and former Rio mayoral candidate, telling the story of how @FlavioBolsonaro shit his pants during a mayoral debate in 2016 youtube.com/watch?v=GL7qPk3x…
Top News 🇺🇦 retweeted
Excellent analysis by @owenjonesjourno
Deeply fucking depressing though
Netanyahu and his allies have beaten the opposition in the Jewish Israeli vote.
That's despite:
- Presiding over October 7th
- Netanyahu being on trial on charges of bribery and fraud
- A cost of living and housing crisis
- Attacks on the judiciary
- Outrage over shielding ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription
- The Qatargate scandal
- The disastrous Iran war
- The Israeli establishment rationally believing that Netanyahu was making their state a pariah, and organising to get rid of him
- The opposition overwhelmingly also supporting the genocide, occupation and illegal settlements
If we include Ofer Winter's party - which pledged to support Netanyahu for prime minister, but hasn't crossed the threshold - then so far 51.5% of the non-Arab list vote went to the Netanyahu bloc.
With 84.4% of votes counted, among the non-Arab list bloc, the opposition has only increased its share of the vote by about 1.6 points.
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich stood separately this time, but are set to win almost the same combined number of seats as last time.
The latter in alliance with Moshe Feiglin, who declared "Every child, every baby in Gaza is an enemy."
The only significant shift is the surge in support for the Palestinian-led parties.
But most of the opposition is opposed to working with them. Avigdor Lieberman, for example, has taken even more extreme positions towards Palestinians than Netanyahu himself.
If they do a pact with the Palestinian-led parties, not only would it not last long, it would produce a huge right-wing backlash.
That the opposition could on paper form an arithmetical majority with the support of the Palestinian-led parties - but absolutely will not - trashes the "well if the small minority of Palestinians who remained in Israel after the Nakba can vote, then Israel is a democracy for all its citizens" nonsense.
A very likely prospect is that this will pave the way for new elections.
The two right-wing parties which didn't cross the threshold would likely not stand again, boosting Netanyahu.
The same huge mobilisation of Palestinian citizens of Israel would likely not transpire.
Netanyahu and his allies would likely benefit from shock at the unexpected surge in support for the Palestinian-led parties.
The opposition would be demoralised by its failure, and Netanyahu strengthened by having come out on top in this election.
So it's best to bet on Netanyahu winning a coming election.
What does all this mean?
Any illusions that change can happen within Israeli society should long ago have been destroyed.
The opposition would have continued the genocide, the occupation, apartheid and colonisation.
But as Israel's support in the West collapsed, Israel's cheerleaders pushed the position that Netanyahu was the bogeyman, and that a shift in figurehead could allow the state to do a PR relaunch.
Netanyahu isn't Israel, we were told.
Well that's true in the sense that on many key issues, Israeli society is actually more extreme than Netanyahu.
This baseless illusion is now dead and buried.
There must now be a much more determined push for a total arms embargo and sweeping sanctions on Israel.
Those arguing that Israel is something it plainly is not are now completely and utterly discredited.
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