Northeast Tennessee coverage on short and long range weather, 7-Day forecasts for the Tri-Cities, model discussion, etc. Snow is the best kind of weather.
Joined December 2020
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StormTrackerSacher retweeted
Looking across my neighbor's yard at the ridge above us contrasted with that blue sky, amazing colors!!
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
Here’s your latest Trick-or-Treat forecast! Good news: you won’t be needing the umbrella this year. However, you may want to keep a light jacket as temperatures will fall into the 50s after sunset.
ALT Halloween Saturday will be mostly cloudy with highs between 71 and 76 degrees. Saturday night remains cloudy with lows dropping to 51 to 57 degrees. Sunday continues mostly cloudy and cooler with highs from 65 to 70 degrees. Sunday night brings cloudy skies, lows between 49 and 55 degrees, and a slight chance of showers.
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
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StormTrackerSacher retweeted
I’ll be live tonight to discuss the latest with our Polar Vortex disruption and the upcoming multi-day severe weather threat.
Hoping to hit the 10K sub milestone on YouTube🎉 Join me on TikTok or YouTube at around 8pm if you have any questions about the weather ahead!
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
UNREAL color in the mountains right now. Most vibrant leaves I've seen in years! 🍂🍁
📍Ridgecrest, NC
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
With Dolly Parton gone, the Red Baron employee has stepped up to unite all Americans
Literally this. I understand it’s important to be mature and responsible about what we post and that’s why you don’t see me posting every control run with 10” of snow like the weeklies had yesterday. 😉 But also it’s fun to think outside the box and hope for something crazy if you’re an enthusiast. Not everything has to fit inside a box of supposed to’s with weather. If it was, we wouldn’t be having a record early season SSWE and polar vortex weakening in early November in the middle of the strongest El Niño on record during a westerly QBO.
Babe wake up. November 1st it gets dark at 6 PM, we crank up the Christmas music, and forecast models come out an hour early.
We’ve had some fall snows down here but this level would be so gas
15 YEARS AGO we saw a record breaking early season snowstorm all across the region. For many reasons the October 29th, 2011 snowstorm became one of the most memorable storms of my lifetime. Greater Danbury saw 12 to 18 inches of snow, with even higher amounts of 24+ inches in the Litchfield Hills.
Temperatures hovered 30-34 degrees during the event creating wet, extremely heavy snow that stuck to all surfaces. The trees, many of which were still in leaf, could not bear the weight of the snow. The storm started around 9AM on a Saturday morning. By 2PM in the afternoon, scattered power outages began to impact the area. By 5PM power outages were widespread. By 8PM, it was "raining wood" as catastrophic tree damage occurred.
Snow continued at a steady clip until the early morning hours Sunday, with rates reaching 2+ inches per hour at times. I’ll never forget what the storm sounded like that night - constant cracks and groans of trees snapping under the weight of the snow. Almost every single tree seemed to have some sort of damage, and many roads were impassable.
Despite the early date, air was cold after the storm, and it would take days for the snow to melt. I was playing soccer for Joel Barlow at the time and remember having to clear some of the snow off one of the fields in Newtown to play a scrimmage almost a week after the storm. For a while we were practicing inside the JBHS gym, which was doubling as a storm shelter. We would move the cots to play, and then move them back when we were done.
📸Mike Lento in Redding, CT
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
Man…
NOBODY wants to hear anything about severe weather potential. Lol
Got to get some Winter stuff going. That’s what the people want. It’s obvious with views on YouTube.
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
I feel like given all the talk about stratospheric warming and polar vortex disruption some things need to be clarified:
1. A SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) and potential subsequent reversal in winds associated with the stratospheric polar vortex DO NOT guarantee wave reflections back to the troposphere or coupling. It can have significant impacts should coupling/reflections to the lower atmosphere occur, but that is something that is still an unknown and will need to be observed in coming days and weeks. Wave reflection can have impacts sooner, coupling can take longer.
2. Notice how I said weeks… there is usually a lag period between the actual disruptive warming event/reversal itself and subsequent downward reflection and/or potential coupling. This can take time, and is still not a guarantee.
3. With the above being said this may have impacts on our pattern at 500 MB down the road come mid/late November, but right now that is TBD. In any case the Nino enhanced sub tropical jet will lead to increased storminess, with wetter and cooler potential for the southern tier of the United States as we move deeper into November, that’s just Nino climo.
So while this may be exciting for winter weather enthusiasts and while this event is extraordinary given the environment and time of year it is occurring, nothing is set in stone as of yet. Could this lead to a colder pattern later into November? Yes. Could wave propagation simply be absorbed by the stratosphere leaving a weakened vortex with little downward propagation/surface effects? Also yes. (The second scenario still doesn’t preclude downward coupling later down the road)
We know this will more likely than not significantly disrupt the polar vortex, but we still need to have some patience and observe downward coupling/wave propagation over the next 2-4 weeks. Canada is also going to remain quite warm during this time, so any true cold will need to originate via cross polar flow should we get enough polar blocking. Just several things to think about before we get either too hyped up, or too dismissive of this event at the moment.
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
Todays 00z is (by memory) the first run period so far, that all 3 main ensemble systems agree on a #polarvortex wind reversal and an official Stratospheric Warming event. The 2 main single-run models also agree on a reversal, while the AIFS remains the only one yet to show a wind reversal, likely limited by its own design, or time will tell.
While its clear that something is going to happen in the stratosphere, what people want to know is how it will change their daily weather. I think we are still not at a point where we can definitively say "ok THIS is what will change for you".
We all know the usual impacts following an SSW event in mid-winter, and it can greatly increase the chance colder air and snowfall across parts of the United States, Europe, and other mid-latitudes, at least on average.
But we are very early in the season, dealing with the earliest SSW event on record if verified, but we are also dealing with a most easterly based Super El Nino on record. This puts the atmosphere in a very unforgiving setup to find any typical SSW impact right now. Just something to keep in mind as the situation unfolds
StormTrackerSacher retweeted
My favorite time of the year... Everyone goin nuts about the #polarvortex so time for a quick ez explanation of what it actually is. The current buzz is "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" so that's included too. Super basic version!