Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather Meteorologist & Digital producer. Opinions my own. WeatherMatrix, Since 1996: "The Weather is Always Interesting."
State College, PA
Joined May 2008
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Jesse Ferrell retweeted
Ghastly, ghoulish weather: 5 infamous Halloween storms accuweather.com/en/weather-n…
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
What an exceptional Pacific Tropical Cyclone season with El Niño helping to supercharge the entire basin. These are all of the hurricanes/typhoons that made it to category 3 or higher. This has been some awesome satellite imagery as well!
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
52 hurricane hunters were killed between 1944 and 1974. Thankfully, the heroes have all made it back to base from every storm since, but it's a reminder that pushing the envelope of science comes at a cost. accuweather.com/en/hurricane…
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
An exciting update on the future of the Keystone Mesonet: psu.edu/news/earth-and-miner…
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
With a lot of talk about the upcoming Polar Vortex disruption and a potentially official SSW (Stratospheric Warming) event, most people cant see what makes this event "unprecedented" as its often called. And for a good reason, as a single map of the #polarvortex can be vague in context. I decided to visualize that context.
The official criteria for an SSW event is the reversal (0 or negative value) of the stratospheric winds at the 10mb level along the 60N polar circle line. We are still on the edge if we will reach a reversal with this event, but there are forecast runs that suggest its likely. Link to those live forecasts is in the comments 👇
Most of the SSW events occur in January and February. I decided to look at every first SSW of each season (some seasons had two) and when it occurred. As you can see, a reversal in the current event would break the record for the earliest SSW on date by at least 3 weeks!
This is really a strong outlier, and having an SSW this early in the season is what makes this event unprecedented in itself, perhaps more so than any temperature or pressure anomaly in the stratosphere.
Its likely not a coincidence we get this with a very strong Super El Niño ongoing in the Pacific. So overall, this is truly a very interesting season for anyone that is into monitoring the weather and seasonal development.
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
🌀カルマン渦列が見えています！気象衛星ひまわりの観測データをもとに @TerraCaster で動画化したものです
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
We've reworked our major events page to have more information. We're also working on adding some of the other major events from this year. Link is in the comments. What other info would you like to see?
ALT outage stats for hurricane isaias
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
Talk about electrifying sights! ⚡ These incredible images show red sprites from two stunning perspectives, one above a French village and another from space by an astronaut. The mysterious flashes occur high above powerful thunderstorms.
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝟭/𝟮
Weekly Power Outage Update, Oct 19-25: A quiet week. High pressure across much of the eastern and central US kept things calm, while more active weather in the West contributed to isolated outages. Peak outages were ~85,000, with ~300,000 affected overall. 🧵👇
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
After ECMWF began teasing with a Polar Vortex core split and wind reversal in the stratosphere, the GFS model now caved in and is going into proper Stratospheric Warming with a core split and reversed flow in the mid-stratosphere.
The GFS 3D Polar Vortex forecast really nicely reveals the disruption process of the Polar Vortex and the split of the core area.
All products, inclusing the live 3D #polarvortex forecast arw available in my own Polar Vortex hub, link in the comments. 👇
AIFS remains conservative, which is expected for a model of its type, so we are still in a high-caution mode for now. This also prevents to really discuss potential weather impact, as we first need need to properly resolve which "side" will win in the stratosphere.
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
This is going to be a generational winter for coastal flooding and erosion along California’s coast.
A marine heatwave plus a Kelvin Wave from El Niño have already rapidly raised water levels in recent weeks. Combined with king tides this winter, it’s likely every coastal city from the Bay Area to SoCal will see their highest water levels in recorded history.
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
Cars and storage containers were seen floating through a neighborhood in Hurricane, Utah, after flash flooding inundated the area, leaving residents stunned by the rising waters.
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
Orkantief #Manja trifft jetzt auf Schottland mit einem Kerndruck von aktuell etwa 947 hPa. Man beachte die Windböen in der kommenden Nacht:
kachelmannwetter.com/de/mode…
/FR
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
other reasons. 1) Very large at that time, so its inflow, if you took vector analysis, was aimed where it was moving towards. The larger the storm, the harder it is to weaken. ( Also the weaker the storm the harder because its already week). This is exactly why the power and impact scale is so dang good: size matters with hurricanes, 50 kt and 34 kt windfields both get the same rating, with spot wind at the surface. A quick calculation of Wilma at landfall. Ike 2 days after landfall was knocking out power in the Ohio valley. ( in fact Ike was the inspiration for the Power and Impact scale) The upper flow was lined up nicely for maximum transport of wind down to the surface. We see this sometimes in the northeast on the east side of hurricanes. But this added fuel to my seeding of smaller, more intense storms coming to the coast as its a great anti-log as opposed to a storm that is focusing its fury as its coming to the coast. So, based on the NHC report, Pressure gets a 3.5. Wind gets a 3.7; gusts get a 4.9; hurricane winds get a 2.6; 50 kt gets a 3.2; 34 kt gets a 3.6. So it's a 3.6 without pressure adjustment (if rapidly falling, add; if weakening, subtract, since an intensifying storm will have better transport to the surface than a weakening storm). Classic case: Idalia ( weakening). In this case, power and impact and Saffir-Simpson were close ( NHC should use tenths at the least). Size matters, and so do gusts! In the case of Ike, it was a high-end 3 on our scale. Think about it. Charley vs. Donna in southwest Florida. Both cat 4s, but Charley can not hold a candle to Donna except within the 10 mile area of landfall
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
It’s been in development a long time, but finally, “threats-in-motion” likely to come in 2028 as new software is implemented across the National Weather Service. Severe storm warnings will move with the storm. @nwas
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
Strengthening steering winds will push Josephine over progressively colder waters in the North Atlantic. It could pass close enough to the large Canadian island of Newfoundland to bring wind-driven rain and snow on Saturday. bit.ly/4k9xcVl
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
Absolutely incredible 3D satellite presentation of Super Typhoon Champi from the Himawari-9 target sector as it continues churning in the Philippine Sea.
Jesse Ferrell retweeted
There are some things visible/IR satellite can’t always show effectively like surface fronts — and the latest ASCAT pass indicates the frontal boundary is just barely enough detached from the center to make the case it might be a close to or classifiable as a subtropical cyclone.
