Assistant professor @DukePoliSci https://nitter.cf/t.co/p2zcpB8UBE
Joined February 2012
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Jon Green retweeted
Budda Baker fielding trade deadline questions with a full Halloween costume on is one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen
Jon Green retweeted
Over on LinkedIn(!!!), Courtney Kennedy (now @ Ipsos) reports that an incentivized mail survey they conducted w/ a 9% response rate (!!!) that shows D+6 vs D+10 in their poll with Reuters on the Generic Ballot.
lnkd.in/p/ezfqFQCq
Reuters/Ipsos poll | 10/22-10/26
(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 53%
🟥Republican 44%
------
(Registred voters)
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 64%
✅Approve 35%
Link to poll: ipsos.com/en-us/democrats-ho…
every scientific pollster this cycle seems to have found their own way of saying "we have D+ a million. it's obvious that Dems are way more excited to talk to us than Reps. maybe that's real, maybe that's a huge problem, we did what we could, we'll find out in November"
4:45 fire alarm is a real stress test of “do not collect your belongings before exiting the building”
Jon Green retweeted
One bizarre detail of the Alaska story is that the main source tried to take it all back. Very amusing that a senate campaign manager would think you can “retract” statements to a journalist.
it's fun how Israeli politics is really different from US politics in a lot of ways but now there's a party called The Democrats that's liberal on domestic policy and supports a two-state solution
Jon Green retweeted
Biggest misconception on Election Night (that leads to other misconceptions) is that no candidate takes or loses the lead. The winner is already decided; all the votes exist. It's just a matter of: In what order is the score, or rather votes, revealed? 1/ ...
I'm willing to grant that the whole Dans Sullivan thing was a little too cheeky but the actual ballot is pretty clear which Dan Sullivan is the incumbent Republican senator and which Dan Sullivan is just some guy ballotpedia.org/Alaska_offic…
Jon Green retweeted
The fact that people watched this movie and fell for her shtick is exactly how Elizabeth Holmes was valued at billions of dollars for a scam product that couldn't work.
Jon Green retweeted
I’m laughing so hard. The whole drama about “dropping a new ad” for Michigan or Netanyahu starting the Iran War … he just dusted off one of his old ads from his failed 2024 presidential run. See the date on the tweet. Apparently Israel was then responsible for expensive eggs.
This is the ad that’s going viral right now on TikTok. This #CeasefireAd can help us get delegates in the Democratic primary to fight for #CEASEFIRE_NOW. Please share and help us run this ad in the upcoming primary states at CenkForAmerica.com
Jon Green retweeted
There are way too many otherwise knowledgeable people on this site asking questions like "how does polling recover".
Pollsters didn't do anything wrong! A bunch of people did fraud and got caught by pollsters!
Jon Green retweeted
We were investigating Wedgewood for faking their data and emailed them for comment this morning, ahead of publishing the findings tomorrow. They are trying to cover up their fraud with the "we were doing a social experiment" excuse.
Full story here: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fif…
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Jon Green retweeted
🗣️ Can we persuade people across political divides?
Check out my new paper in @PolBehavior! I analyze 966 political conversations on DiscussIt, a researcher-developed mobile chat platform, comparing persuasive arguments in cross-partisan interactions.
🔗 link.springer.com/article/10…
Jon Green retweeted
A few notes, we give you the chance to build your own forecast going back to 1946. If you think there is another polling error like in 2016, or want to see what the model would say in 1956, try all these possibilities, make your own modeling decisions, and see the numbers change!
New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using all political science knowledge we could systematize, & our statistical methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit
We make these forecasts available (including all the input data, methods, and procedures), not only for their possible public interest, but because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong. We will make no changes to our post-primary forecasts (which do not use polls) but will update two other sets on this site incorporating poll results as new ones appear. Comments on the paper or forecasts are welcome!
Jon Green retweeted
New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using all political science knowledge we could systematize, & our statistical methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit
We make these forecasts available (including all the input data, methods, and procedures), not only for their possible public interest, but because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong. We will make no changes to our post-primary forecasts (which do not use polls) but will update two other sets on this site incorporating poll results as new ones appear. Comments on the paper or forecasts are welcome!