NYC | Special Situations Investor | #isles Tweets are neither recommendations to buy or sell nor financial advice
Joined May 2017
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BasedShark retweeted
$LEAT Leatt Corp.
Banger Q3 results. Highest quarterly revenue print in 4 years.
How is this for operating leverage (comment from the CEO):
"Our 2026 results clearly show the progress that we are making. In the third quarter, revenues grew 43% while operating costs grew only 15%, lifting our net margin to 10.8% from 3.8% a year ago."
BasedShark retweeted
National exit (sample: 79,668) -- Importance of issues to your vote:
GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Crucial/Major - 90%
Minor/No factor - 10%
COST OF LIVING
Crucial/Major - 89%
Minor/No factor - 11%
IRAN WAR
Crucial/Major - 74%
Minor/No factor - 26%
IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Crucial/Major - 73%
Minor/No factor - 27%
AI & DATA CENTERS
Crucial/Major - 56%
Minor/No factor - 44%
BasedShark retweeted
$NKR Syncrolift just won its largest contract ever: more than NOK 800m from a US customer, with delivery in 2028.
That single award exceeds its entire Q2 backlog (NOK 653m) and Pareto’s 2026e order intake (NOK 494m), and is about half of Nekkar’s market cap (NOK 1.7bn)
BasedShark retweeted
$FLYW Q3 2026:
Net income $74.5m, incl. $39.2m non-cash tax benefit
Revenue $250.3m, up 25.1% YoY
TPV $17.8b, up 27.7%
Adj EBITDA $79.5m, margin 32.5%
FY26 guidance raised: FX-neutral rev less ancillary +25-27% YoY, Adj EBITDA margin +300-360 bps
BasedShark retweeted
$GMS.L reported a monster Q3 2026 and the market is asleep.9M EBITDA $81.5M vs FY guidance 105-115M → implies beat on upper end.
Q3 annualized = $150M → +30% growth vs FY26 upper end into 2027.
Trading at ~2.5-3x FY27E EBITDA. Peers 5-8x.
$GMS.L Q3 2026 was a decisive step-change from H1. Q3 standalone revenue $67.7M (+32% YoY, +61% vs H1 avg quarter), EBITDA $37.7M (+23% YoY, +72% vs H1 avg quarter), day rates ~$42.4k (+12% YoY, +13% vs H1 avg), utilization back to ~90% (vs 75% in H1 crippled by Gulf war disruption), net debt reduced $10M in Q3 despite integrating LatAm vessel financing.
FY26 guidance (105-115M EBITDA) is a sandbag. 9M at $81.5M, Q4 implied 23-34M vs Q3’s $37.7M actual. If Q4 holds the Q3 run-rate, FY26 lands at ~$119M. Q3 annualized = $150M EBITDA into 2027 before LatAm full-year contribution, day rate progression, war revenue recovery, or backlog repricing. Realistic 2027E range 155-175M.
Trading at ~2.5-3x FY27 base-case EBITDA. Backlog $616M (+35% YoY). Market cap £200M, EV ~£330M ($450M).
Private market comp just emerged: WSJ reports ADNOC L&S in talks to acquire HEA Energy at $3B valuation, implying ~8.5x EV/EBITDA on a fully built-out normalized basis.
Upside scenarios applying 8.5x HEA comp to GMS:
$150M 2027E EBITDA (Q3 run-rate flat): £0.78 share price, +326% upside
$165M 2027E EBITDA (base case): £0.88 share price, +378% upside
$175M 2027E EBITDA (bull case): £0.95 share price, +414% upside
Even at a conservative 6x multiple (vs HEA’s 8.5x), base case = £0.59 (+223%).
Catalysts: FY26 beat, 2027 guidance, dividends or buybacks.
I have covered the company in depth in Undervalued and Undercovered link in comments.
$ACHL - Final liquidation escrow payment received. Realized IRR on this trade moves to 61.15%.
$ACHL - Liquidation payment has hit my account. I added and subtracted to this at various points, but have realized an 18.6% IRR on the piece taken into liquidation post-ADR fee and attributing no value for escrow, which could bring this higher in the future.
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BasedShark retweeted
$LFCR to be acquired by Webster Equity Partners
— Common holders get $6.28 per share in cash at closing, a 49.5% premium to Friday's close
— Plus a non-tradable CVR worth up to $160 million in total, tied to revenue milestones for 2028 and 2029 and an EBITDA target for 2030
— Full CVR payout would take the per-share value up to $9.67, a 130.2% premium
— Deal valued at up to $663.7 million, 30-day go-shop period runs alongside it
— Expected to close at the end of Q4 2026, needs stockholder and regulatory approval, and the stock will be delisted from Nasdaq
Not financial advice.
BasedShark retweeted
ナナホシマネジメント（イギリス）は、日産東京販売ホールディングスの取締役会宛てに、以下の書簡を送付したことをお知らせします。
「政策保有株式に関するロックアップ（売却制限）の設定を踏まえた要請」
shiftnissantokyo.com/wp-cont…
BasedShark retweeted
Blowout Q4 numbers from my biggest position $RELL:
- Net sales up +27.6% YoY to $66.2M, the highest quarterly revenue since Q3 FY23
- PMT +28.1% (driven by semifab wafer fab equipment demand plus distributed RF & microwave) & GES +20.4%
- Backlog grew +8.7% Q/Q to $164.4M, its highest in 3 years, led by PMT
- Op leverage on full display as expected with opex falling as % of sales from 30% to 26.6% YoY
- $0.21 eps after backing out one time items blowing out the $0.07 analyst eps
- $31.8M in cash and 0 debt
Excited to listen to the CC tomorrow. Expecting a very positive outlook.
BasedShark retweeted
$RPTX boom just paid 22.93 US-cents. The 5 mln from GILD were expected but the 5.7 mln true-up was substantially larger than expected.
Would be a touch less spectacular if the 3mln from DCX were included, but cannot say.
Just the remaining 3 mln from GILD will bring us to almost 30 cents, when DCx pays their 3 mln (unless included) we´ll get ~5.7 cents at a 90% participation rate.
Debiopharm (Lunre) recently also had great news and was initially communicated with a near-term payment, my guess is they will pay 5 mln$ on choosing a P2 dose? Otherwise P2 initiation a highly likely trigger.
And there are still other assets to monetize. I think this will return close to or more than 100% of last closing price within 12-18 months and that is before the real deal (the BMY assets) are considered.
$RPTX the thingy closed as announced at ~2.20$. Biggest CVR investment for me so far by far.
In the long run, this is all about BMY bringing the riches, but in the near term we´ll be probably looking at:
- 3 million additional receivable from DCx (I suppose they are still in fundraising mode?) -> 6.6 cents
- Potential payout of return of prepaid expenses + tax credits, maybe 6 centsish, not counting on anything here
- 5 mln "completion payment" from Gilead on turning over complete package, 3 to 6 months? -> 11 cents
- release of 3 mln holdback in 12 months -> 6.6 cents
- 5 mln in potential "near term" from Debiopharm -> 11 cents
All in all, we´re looking at potentially 35-40ish gross before any additional asset sales or payments from BMY. Decent chance we get our money back /mostly back in ~15 months?
After that, it´s up to Debio and mostly BMY to bring the big guns. 176 mln (3.89$ per CVR) in total R&D / dev / reg milestones before any sales for each of the 7 BMY programs.
I still cannot even.
1/ $ORGN - Step 1, take the range of liquidation values and a range of likely dates the payment might be made. Discount the values accordingly.
7/ I've also cut this down as a sanity check. My thoughts is that the Geismar property is money-good considering recent appraisal and long-term prospects for Gulf-coast chemicals. Sarnia is more of a concern.
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