Jackson Hannan

Indiana and Kentucky Election Night Preview (6pm, 7pm polls close) Indiana and Kentucky are the first states in the country to begin closing their polls and reporting results. Only the portions in the Eastern time zone close at 6 p.m. Eastern, though those areas include most of the population in both states. IN-05 and KY-06, the most competitive U.S. House districts in the two states, both close at 6 p.m. A Democratic win in either seat would signal a very strong night for the party. But be cautious: initial returns will likely be bluer than the final vote, making early Democratic gains look larger than they ultimately are. Florida will likely report results faster than Indiana and Kentucky, so by the time we have complete county results in their key races, we may already have a much clearer picture from Florida. Operations Indiana: Early votes usually report first, then more Republican Election Day ballots. The first hour may be mostly early-vote drops (so comparing to final 2024 results is not a good idea and will give you an inflated view of Democratic gains), so consider that margins will change as Election Day votes are reported. Later-counted ballots after Election Night may lean Democratic. Kentucky: Very small initial drops (<10% of the vote) may be mostly mail votes, and early in-person votes follow or come first in most places. More Republican Election Day ballots, about 70% of the vote, will generally be reported last. Expect early Democratic strength to fade as this happens. Most counting should finish by 10 p.m. ET. Key races IN-05: Victoria Spartz (R) faces J. D. Ford (D) in a district based in the Indianapolis suburbs. The district was Trump+17.1 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Republican, favoring Spartz to win by 8.7 points. The Hamilton County early vote drop in IN-05 during the final quarter of the first hour was the first sign that Trump was set to perform well in 2024, as he beat my benchmark for a “good” night by 4 points. Democrats would love to see Ford win that first drop by double digits, compared with the Spartz+3.5 drop we got in 2024. KY-06: Ralph Alvarado (R) faces Zach Dembo (D) in a district around the Lexington area in eastern Kentucky. Trump won this district by 15 points in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Alvarado to win by 2 points. It is an early litmus test of how deep Democrats can reach into seats Trump won by double digits. Indiana Secretary of State: Republican Max Engling faces Democrat Beau Bayh in the open-seat race to succeed Republican Diego Morales. We expect this race to be competitive, even though Trump won the state by 19 points. Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) faces Charles Booker (D). Kentucky was Trump+30.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Solid Republican, favoring Barr to win by 19.1 points.