Market Junkie navigating the markets. 15yrs experience B2B and municipal sales. 20yrs+ trading. Author of forthcoming book: $ituational Awareness.
Scottsdale, AZ
Joined September 2018
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NickTomasAZ retweeted
Employment in the US actually expanded by 1.023 million, or 0.6% (NSA), last month, which is just shy of the 0.7% increase that is normal for October. An abnormal expansion in the Manufacturing economy heading into the fall offset ongoing weakness in Oil/Gas extraction, Construction, Information, Telecommunications, Financial Activities, and Leisure/Hospitality segments, many of which have struggled from the high cost of borrowing/living. $STUDY $MACRO #Economy #Employment #NFP
NickTomasAZ retweeted
As I was saying in April 2025: You do tariffs, you lose Congress.
NickTomasAZ retweeted
Tonight’s outcome isn’t about placing faith in Democrats or socialist principles; it’s about holding Republicans accountable for betraying their promises.
All Republicans had to do was:
1. put Americans First
2. not start another war
3. prosecute sex traffickers
NickTomasAZ retweeted
AI: The Biggest Capital Misallocation in History? nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1RJZzBEdl…
NickTomasAZ retweeted
Yields sank and the Nasdaq tanked.
Be careful what you wish for when it comes to lower yields, especially if it is due to AI slowing down.
NickTomasAZ retweeted
When the government cannot make its mind, businesses are forced to hedge.
You hedge by building redundancy eg factories in 2 countries instead of 1.
This is a distraction, which causes businesses to invest less in new products or marketing.
In other words, the never-ending directionless tariff policy is a huge handicap on American business.
NickTomasAZ retweeted
A little Friday food for thought heading into the weekend courtesy of the @NewYorkFed.
Note the difference between actual inflation and the counterfactual without.
In less than one year following the unleashing of tariffs they contributed 2.9pp to inflation.
Without the tariffs inflation actual declines.
Worthy of your consideration.
NickTomasAZ retweeted
Vance didn't just give a weird definition of socialism. He also said the left should love his immigration policy because it adheres to good socialist principles.
This admin loves exerting control over the private sector while making "socialism" its main bogeyman. Is irony dead?
J.D. Vance accidentally comes out as a socialist reason.com/2026/10/08/j-d-va…
NickTomasAZ retweeted
“The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted.”
— James Madison
NickTomasAZ retweeted
NATURAL GAS FUNDS FLIP SHARPLY NET SHORT
Managed money more than doubled its net short position in Henry Hub, with a 67,217-contract bearish swing driven by the steepest long liquidation since 2008.
Funds cut longs by 46,038 contracts while adding 21,179 shorts.
The increasingly crowded bearish positioning could leave natural gas vulnerable to a short-covering rally if a bullish catalyst emerges.
NickTomasAZ retweeted
The #manufacturing sector was the fifth-largest employer in the U.S., according to our 2023 County Business Patterns.
Explore American manufacturing history, statistics, and more on #AmericaCounts.
census.gov/library/stories/2…
#MFGDay #CensusEconData
NickTomasAZ retweeted
The 1962 bear market (27% drop in DJIA) was what put the A-D Line on the map for a lot of people, because Joe Granville and Richard Russell had talked about it in their newsletters. People learned that there was a way to get advanced notice of a bad event like that.
Wonder why I’ve been fixated on the Big Breadth Divergence lately?
I first started following the stock market in 1961. Right afterwards, in May 1962, it crashed.
Most web references call it the “Kennedy Slide” or “Flash Crash”. It wasn’t.
it was a full-fledged crash.
The market staged a series of increasingly-violent selling climaxes every two weeks. The Big One came on Monday, May 28. The S&P 500 plummeted 6.8%, which left it more than 20% below its March high. The tape was still printing trades 2½ hours after the market closed.
It was an indescribably-powerful emotional experience. Nothing on the web adequately captures it. The closest thing is jasonzweig.com/back-to-the-f…
And the crash was foreshadowed by a Big Breadth Divergence.
I simply can’t forget lessons like that from just after I started following the stock market.
Which is why that Big Breadth Divergence will stay with me as long as I live.
NickTomasAZ retweeted
it continues to absolutely boggle my mind how few people realize that refineries in the US Rockies, Plains, Midwest/Great Lakes rely so heavily on millions of barrels of Canadian crude oil *every day* and have since the 1950s
The US is the largest oil producer in the world. We don't need Canadian tar sands oil.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
While the US is the top oil producer, its refineries process over 16 million barrels per day of crude—exceeding domestic output of about 14 million—and rely on millions of barrels per day of heavy imports from Canada suited to their configurations.
eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_s…
eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
NickTomasAZ retweeted
$spy reclaimed $762 for tactical cash flow. Most know the RDR type trade. Many of them out there.