the prediction market super app trade and earn
Joined September 2018
- Tweets619
- Following1.3K
- Followers13K
- Likes1.9K
Polyguana retweeted
Democrats are at about 68% to control the Senate after the midterms, per Polyguana.
That's up 5 points this month, from about 62.5% on Oct 1. Over $6.1M has traded on it.
Election Day is Nov 3. The odds stayed between roughly 62% and 69% all month, which is a steady lead.
Polyguana retweeted
Robinhood is at 37% on Polyguana to be the first platform selling tokenized stocks in the U.S.
Coinbase, Kraken and Gemini are also in the field. About $20K has traded on Robinhood's side.
The odds ran from about 24% to 64% this month. Robinhood looks like the one to beat.
Polyguana retweeted
ICE just sidelined Polymarket in favor of trade xyz on Hyperliquid.
Yes, Polymarket’s biggest investor, sitting right on their board, looked at Polymarket’s perps and decided to build 24h perps on a competing venue instead.
Here is why institutional trust is collapsing behind the scenes: 👇
Look at what’s actually happening behind the curtain:
-- Word is ICE is hedging their exposure because they don't trust Polymarket’s leadership actually to deliver on perps. When you look at the public data I’ve been reporting on- inflated volume, gamified farming, and structural rot- you can't blame them.
-- First, they lost the Robinhood prediction markets partnership over trust issues. Now their own board member is routing perp partnerships to Hyperliquid.
You don't even need to believe the rumors. Just look at the facts and watch where the deals are actually going.
Where do you see institutional perp and prediction flow consolidating over the next 12 months?
Polyguana retweeted
Our latest featured project: @sharexyz.
Available on iOS and the web, Share brings Polymarket and Hyperliquid HIP-4 into one interface, helping traders compare markets, follow wallets and trade across venues.
Explore Share by watching the video and check out the listing on PMWisdom
Polyguana retweeted
Fuel for thought. Best Prices & Yield on Deposits
Just $POLY Just Community.
Polyguana retweeted
Did you know Polyguana lets you propose markets yourself? 🦎
• Deposit $KHYPE on Polyguana
• Trade anytime with ZERO lockup
• Earn $POLY yield (points) while your funds sit idle
• When we hit 500k $KHYPE total → Polyguana becomes a proposer and feeds market revenue back into user rewards
Stake $KHYPE, retain 100% trading flexibility.
Become the whale.
Hyperliquid.
👇👇👇
Polyguana retweeted
I think I've identified the Predict Fun Exploit
The third party responsible for the hack is likely @ApidogHQ & @algolia
Archived dev.predict.fun pages identify Apidog as the documentation platform, with Algolia powering its configured search.
1. predict fun accidentally left their website’s administrative "search index keys" open to the public on an API doc.
2. Using that key, hackers injected 36 fake, poisonous search results (ADT-N-0 to ADT-N-z). Because they mapped to every letter and number, typing any character triggered them.
3. When developers or users searched for anything on the docs site, the database instantly fetched the hacker's fake, infected data.
4. The website used a risky coding method (dangerouslySetInnerHTML) to load search results, blindly running the hacker's hidden script without checking it first.
5. Once the script ran, hackers could spy on the browser, hijack active sessions, and steal wallet keys or redirect crypto transactions.
🚨 HACK ALTERT : Predictdofun drained for $400,000 of user funds !
User's wallets are being drained and laundered through Tornado Cash.
trader @dethective saw $5,000 disappear from his account.
New victims keep emerging every minute.
Onchain investigator @Naeven_ identified:
- 19 affected wallets
- 105 ETH (~$260K) traced
- Funds bridged from BNB Chain to Ethereum
Stolen assets subsequently forwarded to Tornado Cash
but it's likely an underestimate as predictdotfun themselves report >400,000 USDT in losses.
Predict dot fun is compromised, keep away from it.
Polyguana retweeted
Points distribution #2 went out today
10000 Points + referral rewards distributed
Come join the fun: polyguana.net/points
Polyguana retweeted
0.3% of wallet generate 70% of Polymarket's volume.
that's only 10k wallets out of 3.2M.
Whales are carrying the platform.
The concentration is INSANE:
- Top 0.3% of wallets: 70% total volume
- Top 1%: 80.3%
- Remaining 99%: 19.7%
But trading profits are even more concentrated:
- Top 100: 28.6% of all profits
- Top 1,000: 55%
- Top 10,000: 79.4%
So if you are not in these 10k (0.3%) you probably have a negative PnL
And that's how things are supposed to work.
It's the basic economic cycle of a trading platform :
The platform attract retails -> retail attract whales -> whales create volume -> volume entails fees for the platform.
So if you ever ask yourself why Polymarket (or any other platform) tend to resolve controversial markets in favor of whales.
Remember that you are not the one making them money, whales are.
Polyguana retweeted
Will there be a new frontier AI model this month?
Claude Fable 5.5 or GPT Terra?
Grok 4.8 - maybe?
Best odds on the AI Race from
@Kalshi @Polymarket @trylimitless and @HyperliquidX
Just $POLY
Polyguana retweeted
Surprised by the turn of events in Brazil?
You wouldn’t be if you were watching the odds on Polyguana.
Polyguana aggregates real-time quotes from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, giving you the fastest signals and the best fills in the market.
Trade politics, elections, and global outcomes while earning constant passive yield on your capital + outpace inflation by stacking PolyPoints.
Just $POLY. 🦎📈
Polyguana retweeted
We show who is on the other side of a Polymarket trade. Polyguana places it, from one balance across Polymarket, Hyperliquid and Limitless. Same team as PM Wisdom.
Just joined Polyguana to start earning $POLY.
Polyguana code: WSG6NZ nitter.cf/polyguana/status/21086…
No VC. No presale. No fees on top.
Just tokens. Just $Poly. Just community.
PolyPoints start today.
Polyguana retweeted
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume.
No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
Polyguana retweeted
The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone?
> Become a Thiel Fellow
> Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump
> Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder
> Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi
> Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket
> Pump shady influencer campaigns for growth
> Go full Republican retweeting racist posts
Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats.
Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop?
What side are you on? | EP. 5
Polyguana retweeted
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site.
WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
Polyguana retweeted
Looking for work in prediction markets? Look beyond Polymarket and Kalshi.
Our jobs board lists 250 openings across 37 companies. Those two account for 98 roles—the other 152 are spread across 35 employers.
Browse the openings:
pmwisdom.com/jobs
Polyguana retweeted
You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎
Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in.
Watch the video, and learn more at polyguana.net/info/smart-ord…