Partner @vashoncompany, Law Enjoyer, Goethe Appreciator, 🇺🇸/acc
Caltrad Empire
Joined July 2021
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Ryan Hiepler retweeted
Fire me up
Palmer Luckey says analysts claiming it's too expensive to manufacture in the US are lying to protect megacorps
"I think I have a more realistic view than almost anybody. One of the problems with all these analysts that are telling you that it's going to cost $37,000 to build an American iPhone or $100,000 to buy an American computer."
"They're trying to prop up a status quo that the megacorporations want to keep going. They want to outsource everything. They want to hire cheaper non-American labor."
"They are willing to say and do anything to convince you that it can't be fixed, that it can't come back, that America is this helpless, neutered, post-relevant empire, and it is just not the case."
"How do I know that? Because I have to make stuff in America every day because I work in the defense industry. The stuff that Anduril makes every day is not actually that different from a computer. My drones are basically computers. They have memory, a GPU, a CPU, sensors, batteries, a rugged integration."
"The only difference between an Anduril attack drone and a laptop is a keyboard and a screen. That is not that hard to figure out, especially for a guy like me who started Oculus and comes from the consumer electronics space."
"We're not going to let people lie about what America can and can't do anymore. We're just going to do it."
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
The D in Discipulus stands for DPI
Congrats to the Rune team (from our very first Cohort!) on the acquisition.
Much more to come!
And shout out to @CalebJohn24 for the intro to Peter a while back!
The amount being thrown at math proofs shows how off the mark these groups are on the world we live in.
SAM ALTMAN, HALF A PINT IN: "I'M ACTUALLY PROBABLY NOT SUPPOSED TO SAY THIS, BUT I WILL SINCE WE'RE DRINKING."
Then he told John Collison about one weekend at OpenAI, when a new model came in. There was a channel called "Model Name - Hold My Beer," and people threw at it:
- The hardest research problems of their academic careers
- Problems from many different fields
- Things nobody thought the model could do
"The model was just knocking down one after the other." Altman stayed up two nights in a row, too excited to sleep.
And it wasn't cheap. He says the Navier-Stokes proof alone cost around $10 million. Asked if all the math ran to hundreds of millions of dollars, he said "that kind of work," and added that it "includes much more other discovery than what we have published."
Then the part that surprised even him:
"I also had much more sadness and melancholy, and a feeling of something ending than I was expecting."
OpenAI has found more than it has shown you. And the man who has seen it sounds sad.
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
The Value of the next cycle will be captured by small, elite firms with massive balance sheets working through arcane mechanisms and structures that give them the maximum advantage to seize scarce Positions of Economic Power across asset classes, geographies, and time horizons.
The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco.
Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power.
THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
Commanding-Heights.com
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
2nd order effect of long lead times for materials is that you have to pour enormous amounts of engineering effort to get the part right first time
with fast inputs, cheap iteration is possible and you can operate at lower confidence intervals, saving tons of money over time
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco.
Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power.
THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
Commanding-Heights.com
Not sure when people are going to realize that destroying the middle class is the first goal of every left wing government.
If you look at every policy the last 50 years, almost all result in shrinking the middle class.
The purpose of a system is what it does.
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
The reward of reproducing is enjoying vicarious life through your children’s deeds.
“Living vicariously” becoming a pejorative is an assault on the family, and even the species.
Going to zero.
Dario Amodei: some tokens Claude produces are worth a few cents, others could be worth tens of millions of dollars.
His examples:
1. Telling someone to restart their Mac: the model has said it 10 million times, worth a dollar or less
2. Telling a pharma company to move an aromatic ring to the other end of a molecule: potentially tens of millions
3. Expect pay-for-results pricing, or labor-like pricing by the hour
4. It's a new industry, so many models will be tried
Today pricing is simpler: per the S-1, usage-based pricing was 80% of H1 2026 revenue and subscriptions 20%.
Full breakdown here:
theaiopportunities.com/p/ant…
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
The clouds have passed, and my time making rain has come to an end.
Few people have the opportunity in their lifetime to work this hard on a problem so meaningful and have this much fun. For the family that we have built, and the impossible we’ve taken on, I will always be a Rainmaker, and I am indebted to the team for the joy and purpose they brought into my life.
The team knows how much I love them. @ADoricko: thank you, brother, for bringing me in, for giving me pastures to bulldoze and this beautiful family to lead. One of the greatest honors of my life.
As for me, if I’ve learned anything from Rainmaker, it’s that the grand, civilization-scale problems that stress our nation are worth pursuing and capable of solving.
Putting my head down again, will share more on my new mission soon.
God bless, and Godspeed.
🤖 Made with AI
I believe in the grace of God, but the team that built this may be beyond it. Cursed eternally.
Daily Packs: You rip a pack. You get a market position. Starting with prediction markets.
The packs experience you already love and now with way to get exposure to financial markets.
You can sell back to the market, or hold as the market moves. Suddenly it's two experiences in one.
The protocol's inventory is not physical. No added costs for warehouses or shipping.
Ryan Hiepler retweeted
Extremely, extremely real.
Marc Andreessen says the gap between what AI-native startups and incumbents think AI can do is the widest he’s ever seen:
"The AI-native early stage startups have just a completely different view on what they can do with AI than the typical incumbents in almost any industry, almost without exception."
"AI is just racing ahead in capability even week by week... There are going to be a lot of industries that are really up for grabs in a fundamentally more profound way than maybe has been the case in the past."
"The founders are gonna have a level of superpowers coming from the use of these tools and these technologies that they just simply haven't had in the past... Had I had Astra and Netscape in 1994, like, oh my God. Like, Ben, what would you and I have been able to do at Netscape?"
"Those entrepreneurs are gonna color way outside the lines. We already see this. They're not gonna think of themselves as like, 'I'm just a software company,' or, 'I'm just a hardware company,' or even, 'I'm just an AI company.'"
@pmarca @bhorowitz
