Rick Ehrhardt

🌧️ A WET START TO NOVEMBER! A soggy start to November is in the forecast across the Midwest! 🌧️ A strong area of low pressure and an associated cold front are expected to bring rain and thunderstorms to the region next week. 📍 Current projections suggest 1–3 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days across portions of Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, and Kentucky, with locally higher amounts possible. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor the timing and track of this developing storm system! 🌦️ #INwx #ILwx #OHwx #KYwx

NOVEMBER STARTS OFF ACTIVE? It’s been a quiet and mild stretch of weather across the Midwest, but that could quickly change as we head into November. Forecast data continues to suggest a strong area of low pressure developing and moving from the Rockies east/northeastward across United States from November 1–3. While the exact track and intensity of this system will ultimately determine where the greatest impacts occur, there is the potential for widespread rain, areas of heavy rain, strong thunderstorms, and even strong non-thunderstorm winds across portions of the region. There is still plenty of uncertainty this far out, but this is a system we’ll be watching closely as we get closer to the forecast period. November could be starting off with a much different weather pattern than what we’ve experienced recently! #INwx #ILwx #OHwx #MIwx #WIwx

The October ENSO forecast data is really interesting. We’re potentially looking at a significant drop from a record-strength El Niño at the start of winter, with ENSO weakening quickly through the end of winter and into spring. A couple of thoughts on this, this is based on experience and opinion, not a forecast at this range: A rapidly weakening ENSO in 2027 could throw a wrench into the typical expectations for the Midwest. While a warm winter with near- or below-normal precipitation may be the favored outcome based on the current ENSO signal, a quicker-than-expected transition could introduce some surprises. One possibility? A more back-loaded winter season across the Midwest, with the more impactful winter weather coming later in the season rather than early. There is still a LOT of uncertainty this far out, but the evolution of ENSO over the next several months will be something I’ll be watching closely. Sometimes, the transition is just as important as the starting point. #INwx #winter #snow

🍂 WHY ARE FALL LEAVES DIFFERENT COLORS? Ever notice how one tree turns bright red while another turns yellow or orange? It's not just because they're different species. The colors we see in fall are the result of different pigments inside the leaves, and weather conditions can influence how those pigments develop from year to year. #INwx #ILwx #OHwx #Fall #Foliage #science

INCREASING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT? We have been monitoring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today since early this week. Morning data has shown an uptick in the severe weather threat across portions of eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, central and southern Indiana, and southwestern Ohio for late this afternoon into the evening. While there are still some questions regarding how the atmosphere will evolve throughout the day, the latest data suggests the potential for locally strong to damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The greatest risk currently appears to be within the highlighted area. We’ll continue to closely monitor the forecast throughout the day and keep you updated as conditions evolve! #INwx #ILwx #MOwx #OHwx