Stuart McIntyre (@stuartgmcintyre) header
Stuart McIntyre (@stuartgmcintyre) profile picture

Stuart McIntyre

@stuartgmcintyre

Professor @Strath_Econ, Head of the Department of Economics @UniStrathclyde, Research Associate @ESCoEorg. Own opinions etc.

 Glasgow
sites.google.com/view/stuartgmcintyre/home
Joined June 2009
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📢 UK Budget Response UPDATE📢 With little room to manoeuvre whilst adhering to fiscal rules, Healey chose to rearrange, not reimagine. We’ll have more detailed analysis on the technical side of the numbers tomorrow! 🔗 Read more: buff.ly/HPc9i2a
reaction to the UK budget fraser of allander | FAI

reaction to the UK budget fraser of allander | FAI

We have had our first budget of the Burnham era from the new Chancellor John Healey. On the whole, this Budget announcement has been fairly low key, but that it not necessarily a bad thing – none of…

fraserofallander.org
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Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) profile picture
Paul Johnson@PJTheEconomistOct 28
Mindblowing chart from OBR. In 2029 real household disposable income per person expected to be just 1% higher than in 2019. What an unbelievably awful decade. It used to grow by 2%+ every year, not 1% in 10 years.
Image from Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist)
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David Phillips (@fiscalphillips) profile picture
David Phillips@fiscalphillipsOct 28
The #fiscaldevo roadmap if OUT. Overall I'm pleased. The government has nailed its colours to the mast, with proposals for what I'd call a 'balanced' system of tax revenue-sharing. And its avoided a big pitfall that could have seen London race away.. BUT there are some buts...
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Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) profile picture
Paul Johnson@PJTheEconomistOct 28
Here's the real story of this Budget, the can being kicked down the road. This Labour government is apparently planning spending cuts on most areas of public service spending of 2.6% per year between 2028-29 and 2031-32. Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
Image from Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist)
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Helen Miller (@HelenMiller_IFS) profile picture
Helen Miller@HelenMiller_IFSOct 28
fees like lots of fiddling, short-term things, new complications - a 'young entrepreneurs allowance', 'starter ISA', different business rates exemption threshold for retail, leisure & hospitality ... etc . I don't hear a clear, coherent vision or a simplification of tax system
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Sophy Ridge (@SophyRidgeSky) profile picture
Sophy Ridge@SophyRidgeSkyOct 28
OBR’s growth forecasts 2026: 1.2% (upgraded from the previous forecast of 1.1%) 2027: 1.0% (downgraded 1.6%) 2028: 1.6% (n/c) 2029: 1.8% (upgraded from 1.5%) 2030: 1.7% (upgraded from 1.5%) 2031: 1.6%
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David Phillips (@fiscalphillips) profile picture
David Phillips@fiscalphillipsOct 27
Alongside the #Budget, @JohnHealey_MP will publish a #fiscaldevo roadmap! We @TheIFS want this to: ⚖️Clearly align policy design with policy intent - including on the balance between incentives for growth, and redistribution to address inequalities & insurance against shocks...
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Romesh Vaitilingam (@econromesh) profile picture
Romesh Vaitilingam@econromeshOct 26
Fiscal devolution in England: what lessons from Scotland’s experience? @stuartgmcintyre @ProfGraemeRoy @ProfJMitchell & David Waite @EconObservatory #Budget2026 #AutumnBudget2026 #FiscalDevolution #Devolution economicsobservatory.com/sco…
Fiscal devolution in England: what lessons from Scotland’s experience? - Economics Observatory

Fiscal devolution in England: what lessons from Scotland’s experience? - Economics Observatory

The UK government aspires to boost regional growth by letting local leaders retain a share of tax revenues such as income tax and business rates. Scotland’s experience suggests that any benefits of...

economicsobservatory.com
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As debate grows around devolution in England, what can we learn from Scotland? Writing for @EconObservatory, @ProfGraemeRoy, @ProfJMitchell, @DavidWglasgow and I explore the lessons from Scotland’s experience of fiscal devolution. economicsobservatory.com/sco…
Fiscal devolution in England: what lessons from Scotland’s experience? - Economics Observatory

Fiscal devolution in England: what lessons from Scotland’s experience? - Economics Observatory

The UK government aspires to boost regional growth by letting local leaders retain a share of tax revenues such as income tax and business rates. Scotland’s experience suggests that any benefits of...

economicsobservatory.com
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📊 Our latest Economic Commentary is out. Scotland's economy has held up well, but there are signs of a labour market under strain. We also assess the Programme for Government ahead of the Scottish Budget on 3 December. Read the full commentary 👇 buff.ly/RwthxfX
FAI Economic Commentary Q3 2026 | FAI

FAI Economic Commentary Q3 2026 | FAI

fraserofallander.org
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Stuart McIntyre (@stuartgmcintyre) profile picture
Stuart McIntyre@stuartgmcintyreSep 29
Replying to @ProfJMitchell
@ProfJMitchell, @DavidWglasgow and I have written for @Strath_FAI on Scottish Government’s proposals for local government reform. The proposals raise five important questions that deserve careful consideration as proposals are developed. 1/3
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Replying to @ProfJMitchell
@ProfJMitchell, @DavidWglasgow and I have written for @Strath_FAI on Scottish Government’s proposals for local government reform. The proposals raise five important questions that deserve careful consideration as proposals are developed. 1/3
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4. Can a new regional structure accommodate Scotland’s diverse economic and public service geographies? 5. Is the proposed process sufficiently considered? There is a strong case for reform, but the process, governance and accountability really matter. 3/3
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You can read the article here: fraserofallander.org/reformi…
Reforming Scotland’s local government | FAI

Reforming Scotland’s local government | FAI

Scotland’s proposed local government reforms could reshape public services, economic development and local democracy. We explore five key questions.

fraserofallander.org
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Anton Muscatelli (@AntonMuscatelli) profile picture
Anton Muscatelli
@AntonMuscatelliSep 9
The latest PISA scores are showing up quite extraordinary differences between countries. This from @jburnmurdoch highlights that the U.K. is bucking the trend, but solely due to England whereas the devolved nations are performing much more poorly.
John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) profile pictureJohn Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdochSep 8
Two extraordinary charts from today’s PISA test results: 1) School test scores continue to collapse internationally, underscoring how this is no longer a Covid effect but sustained decline. Those falls in reading and maths are equivalent to about two years of lost schooling.
Image from John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch)
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On the Annual #GERS bunfight. A few takeaways from me on today’s numbers: 1/ Scotland’s fiscal deficit narrowed from 11.5% to 10.9% of GDP. BUT much of the revenue growth reflects higher taxation and fiscal drag, not unusually strong economic growth.
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8/ Which makes the lack of discussion of the Christie Commission striking. 15 years ago it warned that Scotland’s model of public services was financially unsustainable without greater prevention, integration and redesign. Still highly relevant to fiscal sustainability today.
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9/ Finally, despite claims, GERS is neither a prospectus for independence nor irrelevant to independence. It tells us about the fiscal starting point under current arrangements, not the final destination under any proposed constitutional change.
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